Wild Shot Taking His Shot in Wide-Open Tampa Bay Derby

These are still early days on the Triple Crown trail, yet setbacks have come in bunches for some of the perceived big dogs of the 3-year-old male ranks.

Ailments, albeit relatively minor, have hit reigning juvenile champion Classic Empire and unbeaten McCraken. Previously unblemished Irish War Cry was humbled in his most recent outing, as was multiple graded stakes winner El Areeb.

With each recent prep, a fresh player has seemingly emerged near the forefront of the sophomore division— a trend that almost assuredly will continue when the 10-horse field for the $350,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) goes to post March 11. Given his charge has already held his own against some of the aforementioned notable names, trainer Rusty Arnold is rightfully sending Wild Shot into the 1 1/16-mile test thinking "Why not us?"

When it was announced last week that track-record-setting Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner McCraken would miss the Tampa Bay Derby with a slight ankle strain, a new level of opportunity was placed at the feet of some classic aspirants. Led by Sam F. Davis runner-up Tapwrit, the signature prep at Tampa Bay Downs is a wide-open affair filled with promising but unproven youngsters.

Calumet Farm's homebred Wild Shot fits that description as well as any. Judging him off the company he has kept, the Trappe Shot   colt deserves Arnold's confidence, as he has chased Classic Empire and McCraken in his last three outings. He finished fourth in the Sam F. Davis in what was his first start since running second to the latter in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 26.

After breaking his maiden second time out at Churchill Downs Sept. 18, Wild Shot dove into grade 1 waters in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity in October, set an honest pace, and held to run third to the eventual Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) hero at odds of 42-1. Though Arnold was initially disappointed to see the colt flatten out in the lane of the Sam F. Davis after making a bold surge, Wild Shot was hung wide on the first turn and wasn't able to get up on the pace the way he had in both the Breeders' Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club.

"We didn't get a bad trip last time, but we didn't get the trip we wanted. We're prefer to be in that first flight," Arnold said. "He hadn't been out since November, so we were hoping things would break a little bit better our way. But at the time we were thinking, we got beat three lengths by the Derby favorite. So when we evaluated the race that way ... you think, 'That's not that bad. Let's not change our plans.'

"The horse has trained very good. He still has to prove himself. He has not won a two-turn race yet. He has run well in them. He just hasn't won one. I think these horses start to change as 3-year-olds right now. Some of them are going to step forward and some of them aren't. You're hoping you have the one that does."

Gunnevera, who finished behind Wild Shot in the Breeders' Futurity, is one that has progressed—as evident by his 5 3/4-length win in victory in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) March 4. If Wild Shot can get out of post 9, put himself in his preferred forward spot, and capitalize, the 50 qualifying points available to the race winner would put Arnold in position to have his first Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) starter since West by West in 1992.

"We feel we've been in the right company. We went from a maiden race to a grade 1 and got beat by the horse that won the Breeders' Cup ... and we beat Gunnevera, who came back and has thrust himself in the top group of 3-year-olds," Arnold said. "You'd have to have your head buried in the sand to be in this business and not be excited when you have a Derby horse. And I've done it long enough that I won't get ahead of myself. But I'm hoping he takes that step, and we're giving him the chance to take that step."

Among those Wild Shot may have to vie with if he wants to prompt the early pace is State of Honor, who carved out the early fractions in the Sam F. Davis en route to a third-place finish. The son of To Honor and Serve   made his first six starts on the turf and synthetic surfaces at Woodbine and finished second, beaten just head, by fellow Tampa Bay Derby entrant Sonic Mule during his dirt debut in the Jan. 7 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Sonic Mule also possesses early speed, while his stablemate Tapwrit showed good tactical ability when he rated fourth in the Sam F. Davis before coming with a late run. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who conditions both Sonic Mule and Tapwrit, has won three of the last four editions of the Tampa Bay Derby, including last year with Destin.

"Coming out of some shorter races, Sonic Mule might be more of a pace presence," Pletcher said, "but Tapwrit has tactical speed, so I'll let the jocks sort it out and see how the race develops as they come out of the first turn.

"Tapwrit has done very well physically since the Sam Davis," Pletcher continued. "For him, I think the most important thing he got from that race was the experience and education. He got hemmed up inside and had to wait for room, but when he got clear he closed well and galloped out strongly. I think he...learned enough to hopefully bring forth an improved effort."