Litfin at Large: Getting Handle on Dubai World Cup Card

For some reason, or combination of reasons, I never seem to do much good on Dubai World Cup Day, so even though they're running nine stakes worth a total of $30 million in the desert Saturday, I am again finding it difficult to come up with a master plan.

Perhaps it's because the whole extravaganza gets underway with the Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Meydan Sobha (G2) at 7:45 Saturday morning, long before that first cup of coffee has kicked in. Plus which, I'm a little hazy on my trip and bias notes from Europe, Japan and South America, which is to say I don't have any.

Neither have I had much experience playing synthetic surfaces recently, so going through Saturday's card at Turfway Park, highlighted by the Jack Cincinnati Casino Spiral (G3), is proving to be something of a challenge. Nevertheless, the Spiral is part of a pick four that begins with the Rushaway Stakes and the Bourbonette Oaks (G3), and even though it ends with a maiden race containing several first-time starters and an Ireland-bred import, the takeout is a fan-friendly 14%, so I'll probably get involved, at least nominally.

In chronological order, then, here are thoughts to ponder on some of the races at Meydan and Turfway to mix-and-match as you see fit. If there's anything left in the kitty come Sunday, it all goes on a Sunland Park Derby (G3) exacta box of Hedge Fund (#2), Bronze Age (#3) and Irap (#5).

Godolphin Mile (G2) (Meydan, race 1, 7:45 a.m. EDT): Based on the way Sharp Azteca (#6) looked taking the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) in his seasonal debut, he will be tough to run down over a surface that usually favors his type of running style. North America (#7) and Heavy Metal (#8) look like the other contenders.

UAE Derby (G2) (Meydan, race 4, 9:25 a.m. EDT): In response to anyone pretending to have a clue about the first 170-point qualifier (100-40-20-10) to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), I would like to purchase your Master Code Book of Handicapping. While nine of the 16 entrants have had at least one race over the local surface, others last raced either on a synthetic track in Florida, on dirt in Japan, or on grass in Argentina, California and Ireland. 

And can someone explain how Epicharis (#10), who already has punched his ticket to Churchill Downs by winning the Hyacinth in Tokyo, is the 5-1 second choice, while Adirato, who ran a close second in the Hyacinth, is tabbed at 50-1?

Meanwhile, if Thunder Snow (#13) is really going to be 8-5, I have to bet against him. Most likely with either of the two Aidan O'Brien-trained colts by War Front  —Lancaster Bomber (#3) and/or Spirit of Valor (#12). The former has already beaten Thunder Snow, albeit on grass, and showed the wherewithal to ship and run well when a troubled second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T).

Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Gulf News (G1) (Meydan, race 6, 10:35 a.m. EDT): Not sure whether Mind Your Biscuits (#14) can overcome being marooned on the far outside, but know that his fast-closing second in the Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3) was an out-and-out prep; he was never fully asked in that race, not even close. St. Joe Bay (#11) brings Southern California speed to the matchup, and with a 50-50 chance of rain World Cup Day, it's worth noting he ran well in both prior starts on wet tracks.

Longines Dubai Sheema Classic )G1) (Meydan, race 8, 12:05 p.m. EDT): Truly a world-class event, where it is hard to see past the trio of Highland Reel (#3), Prize Money (#5) and Postponed (#7). The chances of Highland Reel would be dampened by ground rated any worse than good-to-firm, in which case I would key on Postponed.

Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Meydan, race 9, 12:45 p.m. EDT): Arrogate (#9) is a 1-3 favorite in overseas markets, and a win here would push his earnings past the $17 million mark for Bob Baffert, who won this race previously with Silver Charm (1998) and Captain Steve (2001). He caught a major break in the inaugural running of the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) when California Chrome failed to fire, thereby leaving plenty in the tank Saturday for what is now the word's second-richest race.

I have a lot of respect for Gun Runner (#5), who is a better horse now than he was when a distant third to Arrogate in the Travers Stakes (G1), but judging from disappointing efforts in sloppy renewals of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and the Betfair.com Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), his Achilles Heel is water. If the rains come, and the track is off, I'll toss him and key Arrogate over some better prices in exactas and trifectas, including Awardee (#7), an accomplished mudder in Japan.

Rushaway Stakes (TP, race 8, 4:33 EDT): Nothing fancy here, focusing primarily on Royal by Nature (#5), Gorgeous Kitten (#6) and Sailing Home (#7).

Bourbonette Stakes (G3) (TP, race 9, 5:09 EDT): A dozen 3-year-old fillies run for 85 qualifying points (50-20-10-5) to the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). The surrounding races in the pick four look more complicated, so I must narrow this one-mile race down to Darkwingsoverdubai (#3) and Delphinia (#6). If I get beat by 3-1 morning-line favorite China Grove, so be it.

Jack Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes (G3) (TP, race 10, 5:55 EDT): Another field of 12 entered this 1 1/8-mile race that offers 85 qualifying points to the Kentucky Derby. The (very) lukewarm 4-1 favorite is Kitten's Cat (#8), but there are myriad possibilities. 

The others I plan on using in varying strength are: Soglio (#2), Fast and Accurate (#3), Convict Pike (#4), Colonel Samsen (#5), Parlor (#9) and King and His Court (#11).

Soglio was compromised by slow paces in both tries at Santa Anita Park over the winter, and while he has never been on anything but turf, it's been my experience that progeny of the late Scat Daddy will run over everything including, broken glass, as the saying goes.

Parlor has been a slow-breaking sort through three starts, all on grass, but considering he shaded 46 seconds for the last half-mile and won under wraps first time out this season, he seemingly has the most potential of anyone here.

King and His Court never picked up his feet in the Sam F. Davis (G3), but that was on dirt, and he won two stakes on Woodbine's synthetic surface to close out 2016, including the Coronation Futurity over stablemate State of Honor, recently second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). This gelding looks like Mark Casse's best prospect for the Queen's Plate in June.

A - 2, 8, 9

B - 4, 11

C - 3, 5