Range of Experience Levels in 2017 Derby Hopefuls

While Todd Pletcher acknowledges three starts going into this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) is not ideal for Patch, the Calumet Farm homebred has enough working in his favor that the Eclipse Award-winning trainer thinks he has earned the opportunity.

Patch is the least experienced runner in this year's field, which also is expected to include a pair of runners at the other end of the spectrum in Conrad Farms homebred State of Honor and Calumet Farm homebred Sonneteer, who each have raced 10 times.

For inspiration the connections of Patch need only look back to Big Brown  , who won the 2008 Derby off of three starts. While Patch is less experienced than his rivals—the Derby will be just his second start at two turns—Pletcher noted that he has been in great form and, as a son of Union Rags  , should handle the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. Also, he shown the mental ability to handle previous challenges.

In his most recent start, Patch rallied from fifth to second in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) April 1 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

"It's a huge challenge for any horse to come in with only three races. Ideally we'd love to have another start or two in him," Pletcher said. "But he also showed in only his third start, and first time around two turns, that he was a strong horse. He closed to second in the Louisiana Derby and galloped out in front.

"He's by a Belmont Stakes (G1) winner and out of an A.P. Indy mare (WindyIndy). We think the Derby distance is ideal for him. if anything the Belmont will be even a better distance."

Patch has one eye but Pletcher said the inexperience is a bigger concern.

"You'd like a little more seasoning but it's where he is," Pletcher said. "He's training well and mentally he handles everything amazingly well."

The average number of starts for the 20 horses currently expected to contest this year's Derby is up slightly from last year, as is the average number of juvenile starts.

The 2017 group averages 6.45 starts going into the Louisville classic, up from an average of 6.2 starts for the 20 horses who started in last year's Derby—a 4% increase. The needle on 2-year-old starts just inched forward this year, up to 3.4 starts compared with 3.3 in last year's field.

With 10 starts each, this year's Derby hopefuls with the most total starts are State of Honor, who enters off a runner-up finish in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1); and Sonneteer, a maiden who enters off a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1). State of Honor is tied with Peacock Racing Stables' Gunnevera, most recently third in the Florida Derby, for the most juvenile starts; at six races each last year.

The first horse to race among this year's group of Derby hopefuls is John Oxley's Classic Empire, who rallied from fifth to win his May 4, 2016 debut in a maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs contested three days before last year's Kentucky Derby. Mark Casse conditions both Classic Empire and State of Honor.

Casse likes to give his horses a lot of starts, noting that it provides horses opportunity to learn things on their own without having to be rushed. Casse noted that sometimes such an approach may hurt his win percentage a bit, but he's comfortable with the more old-school approach.

Classic Empire didn't break well in his debut but rallied to win the 4 1/2 furlong race on a sloppy Churchill surface. Casse recalls jockey Julien Leparoux noting after the race that the son of Pioneerof the Nile   broke a little slow and responding that he'd have time to figure out the start through racing.

Classic Empire has won both his starts at Churchill, one on a fast track and the debut in the slop. He has raced at a total of six different tracks. State of Honor has raced on Polytrack, turf and dirt, competing at three different tracks.

Patch and Battle of Midway are the only two horses among this year's group who did not start last year. The connections of those horses would like to see what is perhaps the final "Derby Rule" still standing come down: No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby after not racing as a juvenile.

The past five Derby winners averaged 6.8 total starts and 4.4 juvenile starts going into the 1 1/4-mile race, with Nyquist   at seven total starts and five 2-year-old starts; American Pharoah   at 5 and 3; California Chrome   at 10 and 7; Orb   at 7 and 4, and I'll Have Another   at 5 and 3.

While 2017's average starts are up slightly from last year, the starts of this year's Derby hopefuls are well down from 20 years ago. The 13 starters in the 1997 Kentucky Derby averaged 8.5 total starts and 4.5 juvenile starts going into the race. That field averaged just more than 2 full additional starts compared with this year's group of hopefuls and just more than one additional juvenile start.

That said, 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm had just six total starts, with three as a juvenile.