Predicteform Haskell Invitational Analysis

Wildcat Red (above) has a chance to run a big race at a nice price in the Haskell Invitational Stakes on Sunday at Monmouth Park. (Photo by Leslie Martin/Gulfstream Park)
In-depth analysis of the Haskell Invitational Stakes, including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.
The $1-million, Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile race for 3-year-olds, takes place Sunday at Monmouth Park and will be part of a live telecast on NBC that begins at 5 p.m. ET.
Dominated by the two of the top trainers in the business, Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have won this race a combined seven times in 10 years.
And while Baffert sends Bayern and Pletcher's absence is notable, the real storyline is the 3-year-old filly sensation Untapable as she takes on the boys for the first time in her career after dominating the filly division in 2014. Untapable looks to become only the third filly in 46 years to win the Haskell, following in the footsteps of Rachel Alexandra (2009) and Serena's Song (1995).
Get the Pace Figures for the Haskell Invitational here.
Encryption (20-1 morning-line odds) Just a maiden winner, he has the least amount of earnings in the field with $67,120. From a Pace Figure perspective, Encryption’s last race of 75 is not competitive.

The Play: Too Slow – as a matter of fact, way too slow. Bayern (5-2) Here’s what we had to say about Bayern prior to the Preakness.
Bob Baffert has dominated the Haskell, winning three of the last four editions of the race. Martin Garcia flies in to ride, a trusted and strong rider for Baffert. At times, Bayern has shown moments of brilliance. When referring to brilliance in horse racing, it's taken to mean the ability for a dirt runner to clearly separate from its competition – exactly what he did in his last race winning the Grade 2 Woody Stephens Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths.
Turning to his Pace Figures, Bayern's last race was a DTOP (Double Top Pace Top) Form Cycle Pattern, which is when a horse runs his fastest lifetime 4f and Final Pace Figure by a notable margin. In this case, Bayern’s last race was 81.2/88.6 up from a 72.3/72.8. This increase of nine points in his Final Pace Figure and almost 14 points in his 4f figure are significant.

The Play: Regression – DTOP is a negative designation combined with a morning line of 5-2 makes for no value with risk. Albano (6-1) Albano ran competitively in the midwest, running second a few times behind a couple Kentucky Derby runners (who performed poorly in the Derby). While his first race back was solid here at Monmouth Park, he is a step down for his competition.
From a Pace Figure perspective, his two lifetime highest final figures are 74.4 and 74.2.
The Play: Over His Head – looks to be a Grade 2 runner at best, not competitive against these Grade 1s. Irish You Well (12-1) Seven of nine runners in the field broke their maiden first out, with the exception of Albano who took two starts and Irish You Well who took NINE starts to win his first race.
His last race Final Pace Figure was a lifetime best of 76.5 after never running better than a 75.

The Play: Over His Head – another runner who is more suited for at Grade 3 stakes level. Just Call Kenny (10-1) One of three runners in the Haskell (Encryption and Irish You Well being the others) who most recently raced at Monmouth in the Long Branch Stakes, “Kenny” does show some intrigue as he handled the stretch out in distance from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, a tough task for a young horse.
Turning to his figures, his last race was a REV (Reversal) Form Cycle Pattern. A positive pattern for both young and stretch-out horses, the REV indicates the first time a horse runs a faster final figure then a 4f figure. In Kenny's case, you'll notice his 77.6/66.3 as a big improvement off his three prior races, though that 77.6 is also a lifetime top by four points, which is concerning.

The Play: Outclassed – This is a nice horse who will get better and compete at a graded stakes level, unfortunately he meets a very tough field in his first graded stakes go. Social Inclusion (8-1) Here's what we had to say about Social Inclusion prior to the Preakness.
Social Inclusion continues to try and find his best effort after finishing third his last three starts in the Wood Memorial, Preakness and Woody Stephens (lost to Bayern) Stakes, respectively. He's burned a lot of money as well going off as the favorite in two of those three races. Journeyman jockey Edgar Prado hops aboard as the third jockey in last three starts.
Looking at his Pace Figures, his last effort was a NPT (New Pace Top) of 76.3/87.5. That 87.5 is 10 points higher than the average of his last three efforts, not surprising it was so high considering he ran into Bayern. Looking at his three races prior, he ran 78/75, 78.6/78.4 and 82/73.5, at a mile or longer which means this 1 1/8-mile distance could be to his liking.

The Play: Fringe contender – a tough horse to figure, he will eventually have a breakout Grade 1, though not certain it will be here. Untapable (2-1) This superstar filly has won her last four graded stakes races by a combined margin of 31 lengths. She won with the greatest of ease in each, including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs and Mother Goose Stakes from Belmont Park. Not since Rachel Alexandra have we seen such a dominating filly.
Looking to follow in Rachel Alexandra’s footsteps, Untapable can become only the second filly to win the Haskell as she takes on males for the first time. In a race with a lot of speed, Untapable has a stalking, push-button running style which is perfectly suited in here.
Turning to her Pace Figures, her Final Pace Figure average over the last four races is about 78, competitive with the best in the field. What’s tough to factor is how much higher her figures could be if she was all out in those races.

The Play: Contender – She will take a lot of money and be the post- time favorite, which means there may not be huge value even sitting on a superstar performance. Also, don't underestimate the change to running against colts, it's quite a task.
Wildcat Red (10-1) Here's what we had to say about Wildcat Red prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Other than his poor effort in the Kentucky Derby (which is not surprising given the field size and traffic), Wildcat Red has yet to finish worse than second in his lifetime. This consistent effort for a Grade 1 runner is impressive (note: all races have been at Gulfstream Park).
His last race was a NPT (New Pace Top) of 77.3/88.3 against a weaker field, winning by 10 lengths following his subpar Derby effort.

The Play: Value Play – Coming off a NPT and if he can get back to his early spring pace-figure level, Wildcat Red will offer value on the tote board. Medal Count (8-1) Here's what we had to say about Medal Count prior to the Belmont Stakes.
Medal Count has turned into a consistent Grade 1 performer, most recently finishing a closing third in the Belmont Stakes. The only runner in the field to turn back in distance, his closing style might fit nicely against a number of these speedy foes.
Turning to his Pace Figures, you’ll notice a consistent set of final figures the last four races with a decreasing set of 4f figures. This means his dirt spread (final figure minus 4f figure), has improved from 6.5 – 7.8 – 6.8 – 8.9, indicating a runner who is improving his ability to manage his speed and run late in a race.

The Play: Contender – Off-the-pace running style and consistent Pace Figures can put Medal Count in the mix, but probably underneath more than on top (2nd or 3rd). 
$1-million William Hill Haskell Invitational S.Monmouth Park, Sunday, Race 12, 5:44 p.m. Post Time1 1/8 miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

ML Odds

1

Encryption

Paco Lopez

Kelly Breen

20-1

2

Bayern

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

5-2

3

Albano

Kerwin Clark

Larry Jones

6-1

4

Irish You Well

Jose Lezcano

Wayne Catalano

12-1

5

Just Call Kenny

Joe Bravo

Patrick B. McBurney

10-1

6

Social Inclusion

Edgar Prado

Manny Azpurua

8-1

7

Untapable

Rosie Napravnik

Steve Asmussen

2-1

8

Wildcat Red

Luis Saez

Jose Garoffalo

10-1

9

Medal Count

Robby Albarado

Dale Romans

8-1