Tip of the Week: Class in Session

The level of race a horse is entered in could indicate his current form. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Few factors in handicapping are as important as current form.
A horse may have been a quality runner in the past, but if he’s not ready for a top effort today what happened months earlier could be a moot point.
Analyzing a horse’s form cycle can be tricky, though sometimes helpful hints can be gleaned from the mere placement of the horse.
Console entered the fifth race at Saratoga on July 21 with plenty of back class.
A year earlier, he had won an optional claimer at Saratoga for second level allowance runners or for horses running with a $62,500 claiming tag. Later in the year, he was tested – without success – in three stakes races and then wound up in a $25,000 claimer in January.
He was claimed in that race by trainer Mike Maker who coaxed a third out of him and then watched him  finish second in an optional claimer at Keeneland for third level allowance horses or $80,000 claimers.
For his next start, Console was shipped to Arlington Park for another $80,000 claimer, where he finished a disappointing sixth.
His next stop was Saratoga, where handicappers had to decide whether Console was in a tailspin or merely had a bad day in his last start and was likely to rebound.
A strong indication of the correct answer could be found in the conditions of the race Console was entered in.
If his form was declining, it figured that Console would be entered in a cheaper claimer.
Instead he was entered a starter allowance race for horses who had run for a claiming price of $25,000 or less in the past year. The race carried a $58,000 purse and Console could not be claimed away.
If Console was indeed in poor form, why wouldn’t his connections dangle him for a reduced claiming price with the hope of losing him via claim?
Instead, by targeting the starter allowance race, they were able to find weaker company with no risk of losing him to another owner.
That placement indicated Console was sitting on an improved effort and astute handicappers picked up on it. Console was sent off as a 2-1 favorite and returned $6.40 after registering a 2 ¼-length victory.
THE LESSON: A horse’s placement after a poor effort can sometimes provide meaningful clues about its current form.