Litfin: Gold Cup Figures to Set up Well for Accelerate

The grade 1 action is at The Great Race Place on Saturday, May 27 of Memorial Day weekend, as the $300,000 Gamely Stakes and $500,000 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes share top billing.

Gamely (SA, race 5, 3:03 PT): The 51st running of this long-time turf fixture boils down to Avenge (#1) going for the early lead and Lady Eli (#6) trying to run her down, in much the same way the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) unfolded.

Lady Eli's well-documented and remarkable recovery from founder was the feel-good story of 2016, and it's kind of cool that her grandsire, Chester House, was out of the Juddmonte Farm mare Toussaud, who captured the Gamely's 1993 running in course-record time.

From the perspective of just being a fan of the sport, Lady Eli is the type of mare who is impossible to root against. As a cold hearted handicapper, however, one thing that's been different since her return last summer is a tendency to “wait” on horses.

At 2 and 3, Lady Eli came to prominence with powerhouse finishes that left her opponents reeling in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T) and Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T). In four starts at 4 and 5, she has led between calls in deep stretch and been caught three times, most recently in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T), when she got the jump on Dickinson past the eighth pole and still could not close the deal.

Normally, the tactical solution in such cases is to instruct the rider to wait as long as possible before cutting the horse loose. In this situation, the problem is that Avenge projects to have complete control of the early pace, and while she could not stave off Lady Eli at 1 ¼ miles last fall, she only has to negotiate nine furlongs in the Gamely.

Using both in multi-race wagers pretty much locks up the race. The more adventurous among us might consider singling Avenge, and spreading elsewhere. If Lady Eli runs her down, you give her a round of applause and move on.

Gold Cup at Santa Anita (SA, race 8, 4:30 PT): Midnight Storm (#5) is the 5-2 morning-line choice to lead eight rivals—including 2015 Gold Cup winner Hard Aces—a merry chase.

It's difficult to muster up much more than lukewarm enthusiasm for the favorite, who was overhauled by two unheralded opponents at a prohibitive 1-2 in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) six weeks back. Maybe he's just not a good shipper (that was his first venture outside Southern California), and maybe he'll bounce back to his bang-up second against Shaman Ghost at Santa Anita two starts ago, but it's hard to say.

After that, things only get more confusing, as American Freedom (#1), Follow Me Crev (#2) and Accelerate (#8) are all tabbed at 4-1 and three-time grade 2 winner Cupid (#6) is rated at 6-1 in his first appearance at age 4.

Bob Baffert's pair of American Freedom and Cupid pose problems for Midnight Storm, and could have him surrounded after the start. The former breaks from the rail and puts blinkers back on, after a disappointing effort in a sloppy renewal of the Alysheba Stakes (G2), and Cupid needs to be forwardly placed or else he seems to lose interest.

Accelerate strikes me as a colt still with plenty of upside. After all, he went from being a maiden last summer to nearly beating Gun Runner for second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) three starts later.

Freshened after that, Accelerate returned at Santa Anita's winter meet with two solid efforts—a clear second in the San Pasqual (G2) behind Midnight Storm, and a close third in the San Antonio (G2) behind Hoppertunity, who has banked $4 million, and Mor Spirit, who has been in terrific form this season.

Accelerate returned in early May to finish second in an allowance mile, and may be set for a break-out effort after completing preparations with a bullet half-mile workout Tuesday. The thinking is he might get a favorable setup.

A – 8

B – 5

C – 1, 2

Red Bank Stakes (Mth, race 9, 4:52 ET): Back in the Mid-Atlantic, summer unofficially kicks off on the Jersey Shore with the 43rd running of the Red Bank (G3T) at Monmouth Park. The interesting thing is that significant rain soaked the Northeast midweek.

I'm keeping close tabs on the condition of the turf course, because morning-line favorite All Included (#2) likes to hear his feet rattle over firm ground, which is what he got at Gulfstream Park to win the Appleton (G3T) by a well-measured margin last time out.

All Included has run 15 times on turf, and the only time conditions were not “firm” was in last year's Appleton, when he finished last as the second choice in the wagering.

Synchrony (#3), Rose Brier (#5) and Irish Strait (#8) may be worth focusing on as alternatives as they all exit the Henry Clark Stakes on yielding turf at Laurel Park.

That was just the second start on grass for Synchrony, who beat 2016 Queens Plate winner Sir Dudley Digges in his grass bow a month earlier. Rose Brier dueled and hung around to deep stretch in last year's Red Bank. He is getting a rider switch to Paco Lopez, whose aggressive style fits him well. Irish Strait has won on the Monmouth turf each of the last two years.

In the event of turf other than firm, I plan on using the favorite only defensively, for better or worse.

A – 3

B – 5, 8

C – 2