Litfin at Large: Class Horses Figure in Ohio Derby

In the aftermath of a Triple Crown series that produced nine different in-the-money finishers in three races, leadership of the 3-year-old division is up for grabs.

At this time last year, we were all debating whether Nyquist  , Exaggerator  , or Creator was at the head of the class, while Arrogate was just getting his sea legs in allowance company.

We know how that all turned out. 

 

One way or another, the 3-year-olds will sort themselves out over the next several months, and the season's unofficial second half gets underway June 24, when the Ohio Derby (G3) has its 83rd running at JACK Thistledown and the Affirmed Stakes (G3) is run for the 39th time at Santa Anita Park. 

Also at Santa Anita, Collected is the 4-5 favorite against four opponents in the 37th edition of the Precisionist (G3) for older horses.

The only other graded stakes on the calendar for Saturday will also spotlight a prohibitive favorite, when Finley'sluckycharm heads a baker's dozen in the Chicago Handicap (G3) for fillies and mares at Churchill Downs.

Ohio Derby (TDN, race 8, 5:30 p.m. ET): Four of the nine entrants in Ohio's only graded event ran in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1). None were expected to factor in that race, and none of them did. Irap (#2) finished 18th at 41-1, Untrapped (#3) came in 12th at 58-1, Girvin (#5) ran 13th at 22-1, and Fast and Accurate (#6) finished 17th at 41-1. 

Nonetheless, you pretty much have to figure the winner is coming from somewhere among that foursome.

Girvin had some decent credentials heading to Louisville after he won the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), but his Derby training was compromised by a quarter crack, and he didn't have the smoothest of trips over the sealed, wet surface. He is undefeated in three starts on fast tracks, retains "Big Money Mike" Smith, and will be favored to rebound.

As the second choice, Irap has a big shot if he can reproduce his 31-1 upset win in the Toyota Blue Grass (G2). Although the top five finishers in the Blue Grass all wound up off the board in the Derby, fifth-place finisher Tapwrit returned to win the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), and Wild Shot, who set the pace and backed up to last, came back to win the Pat Day Mile (G3). 

Reviewing the Blue Grass again, Irap ran through the stretch on the wrong lead, and it's still difficult to fathom how he managed to hang on for his first and only win.

Untrapped, the likely third choice, is best rated off his second to Girvin in the Risen Star, or his subsequent third in the Rebel (G2). An experiment with blinkers may have played a part in the colt's premature, four-wide run in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but whether this son of leading sprinter Trappe Shot   can stay this 1 1/8-mile trip remains to be seen.

Fast and Accurate will be the longest price of the four, since his wins have come on turf at Gulfstream Park, or on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, and his only other dirt start besides the Derby was a distant fifth against maidens at Parx Racing. The Parx race was without Lasix, however, and I have to include the potential lone speed as a back-up in multi-race plays.

The new shooter to keep an eye on is Game Over (#1x), who is part of a three-horse entry with Talk Less (#1) and Vibe (#1a).

Game Over stretches out after winning his debut at Oaklawn Park, then being sold and winning a starter allowance at Churchill Downs despite trouble, and then being sold again. He's built like a sprinter, but the Mineshaft   colt has some versatility in his pedigree, as the dam was a minor stakes winner from six to nine furlongs.

A - 5

B - 2, 3

C - 1, 6

Affirmed (SA, race 4, 2:30 PT): This could potentially be a big afternoon for Doug O'Neill, who sends out Irap in the Ohio Derby, as well as B Squared (#1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) also-ran Term of Art (#4) in this 1 1/16-mile race.

Those two will be distant third and fourth choices behind Battle of Midway (#2), who ran big for third at 40-1 in the Derby, and Arms Runner (#5), who gets a big ask after starting off with two wins down the hillside turf course at about 6 1/2 furlongs.

Prior to his shockingly good effort in Kentucky, Battle of Midway finished second, beaten a half-length by Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Although the latter then failed to distinguish himself by getting beat 14 lengths in the Derby and 12 lengths in the Belmont, 12th-place American Anthem has since won two graded stakes, topped by the Woody Stephens (G2). 

Arms Runner lacked room crossing the dirt in the Desert Code, but accelerated nicely when clear and won pretty comfortably over Cistron, who was coming off a win in the Northern Spur at Oaklawn and then dueled to deep stretch when third in the Penn Mile (G2T).

Arms Runner galloped out impressively after the Desert Code, and what's also interesting is that he is by Overdriven   and out of an Alphabet Soup mare, which is to say his bloodlines are all dirt.

Battle of Midway is trying to get to the Betfair.com Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1) from here, but he has to get by Arms Runner first.

Hopefully the Ohio Derby and Affirmed will not be run simultaneously, as their scheduled times suggest.

Precisionist (SA, race 6, 3:30 PT): Collected (#4) earned a shot in the 2016 Preakness after he won three stakes from his first four starts on dirt, but stopped abruptly after a mile and was then turned out for the rest of the year.

Fast forward to April, when the son of City Zip   returned with blinkers removed, won the Santana Mile with ease, and then came back three weeks later to capture the Californian (G2) just as convincingly.

Now undefeated in five starts on fast dirt for Bob Baffert, Collected will face a sterner test here against Accelerate (#3), who has had seven weeks off since he ran second in a tough optional claimer behind Danzing Candy, who went on to garner the Lone Star Park Handicap (G3) by nearly five lengths.

Baffert also will saddle last year's Santana Mile winner, Cat Burglar (#5), whose only appearance this year was a win over high-end optional claiming sprinters in late March.

Completing the field are two more from Doug O'Neill's barn, the comebacker Donworth (#1), who will look for his first win in just more than two years; and Keane (#2), who will make his seasonal and United States debut after he won six of seven dirt starts in his native Argentina.

A - 4

B - 3

Chicago Handicap (CD, race 10, 5:21 ET): Even with such a big field, it's hard to imagine getting much of a price on Finley'sluckycharm (#8), a 4-year-old daughter of Twirling Candy   who ran her record to five-for-five over the Churchill Downs strip when she took the Roxelana and the Winning Colors (G3) earlier at the meet. She beat six in this lineup at least once.

From eight sprint races overall, Finley'sluckycharm has been beaten only once, when she dueled through enervating fractions and wound up a gutsy second by a half-length in the La Brea (G1) to close out her sophomore season.

The potential stumbling block for the favorite, as in the La Brea, is the seventh furlong, because she has won only up to six panels thus far.

The run through deep stretch will tell the tale, and if the choice falters it will most likely be either Mayla (#7) or Sweetgrass (#9) who surges past in the shadow of the wire.

A - 8

B - 7, 9