Litfin: No Going Against Arrogate in San Diego

It's opening weekend at Del Mar and Saratoga Race Course, which is sort of like midsummer Christmas for anyone who follows Thoroughbred racing.

The racing at Del Mar will be parsed and dissected especially closely by handicappers, because this year the Breeders' Cup is to be held "where the turf meets the surf." In fact, everyone's early favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) will have a public workout of sorts in the July 22 TVG San Diego Handicap (G2), where Arrogate will spot four rivals from 8 to 11 pounds at odds of 1-20. Earlier in the day, Ashleyluvssugar will be a solid favorite in the Eddie Read Stakes (G2T).

It's doubtful whether the Breeders' Cup could ever take place at Saratoga due to myriad obstacles, but plenty of BC-bound runners will be on display through the meet's 69 stakes worth a record $18.775 million. Excluding the A.P. Smithwick Memorial and the Turf Writers Handicap over the jumps, 16 of those stakes carry grade 1 status, beginning with Saturday's Diana Stakes and Sunday's Coaching Club American Oaks. Two-year-olds are also spotlighted in Saturday's Sanford (G3).

Some thoughts while everyone is still even and in a good mood:

SATURDAY

TVG San Diego Handicap (Dmr, race 9, 6:03 PT): Public handicappers and multi-race bettors pick up a free bingo square as Arrogate returns from a mid-season vacation and begins to gear up for the second half of the year. It's been just a bit less than 12 months since the strapping gray colt by Unbridled's Song won a second-level allowance at Del Mar, and all he's done since then is win the Travers Stakes (G1) in track-record time and the world's three richest races—the Breeders' Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), and the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1).

As fate would have it, Arrogate (#3) gets a rematch with Accelerate (#1), who is one of two horses to ever finish in front of him. But while Accelerate posted his first two victories at Del Mar last summer. The best his connections can hope for here is to beat out Cat Burglar (#5) for the $60,000 runner-up share.

A - You're kidding, right?

Eddie Read (Dmr, race 4, 3:33 PT): There isn't a great deal of handicapping minutiae to this race either, other than whether the grizzled old pro Up With the Birds (#5) still has enough to give Ashleyluvssugar (#6) a run for his money, because five others in the field are a collective 0 for 20 in graded stakes.

As a 3-year-old in 2013, Up With the Birds won the Jamaica Handicap (G1T), which was run in the fall at 1 1/8 miles at Belmont Park, but has since been remade into the 1 1/4- mile Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T) and run in early July. Since then, Up With the Bird's only two victories have come in the Nijinsky Stakes (G2T) at Woodbine in 2014 and 2016.

Ashleyluvssugar has racked up five graded stakes victories, and his only loss from three starts at Saturday's nine furlongs was a close second in last year's Eddie Read to seven-time graded stakes winner Midnight Storm.

This renewal is much easier.

A - 6

B - none

C - 5

Sanford (Sar, race 9, 5:40 ET): Eight runners coming from five different tracks square off in the circuit's first graded stake of the season for 2-year-old males. Experience counts for a lot at this stage, so an inherent edge belongs to Direct Dial (#7) and Admiral Jimmy (#5), who were separated by a nose for second and third in the Tremont Stakes back on June 9, and now face six opponents emerging from maiden wins.

Direct Dial was hard-used early dueling with 8-5 favorite Salmanazar, and he won that battle, before falling prey to He Hate Me's winning stretch charge. The "Plod Boys" at Racing Flow assigned the day a closer-favoring 179 rating, so Direct Dial was against the grain of the track as well.

Of the last-out graduates, Psychoanalyze (#1) and Baffin (#6) figure to give Direct Dial some company up front, after taking their debuts in front-running style.

A - 5, 7

B - 1, 6

Diana (Sar, race 10, 6:18 ET): Four of the six fillies and mares in the Diana are already grade 1 winners, none more popular than the unsinkable Lady Eli (#3), who picked up her fourth such score in the Gamely Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park second time out this season for defending Saratoga training champ Chad Brown.

Lady Eli's biggest challenge could come from her stablemate, Antonoe (#2), who is 2 for 2 in the United States, and overcame a slow pace coming from dead last in the one-mile  Longines Just a Game (G1T) last month at Belmont. Antonoe ran her fourth quarter in under 22 seconds that day, and the central question is whether she can demonstrate a similar turn of foot in her first attempt at nine furlongs.

As frequently happens in top-level grass routes, the match-up lacks a clear pacesetter. For my money, the one to try and take advantage of the situation figures to be Dickinson (#6), who was carried out and finished a close third in the Just a Game. The Medaglia d'Oro   mare has won five of seven starts since switched to the grass, beginning with two pace-pressing allowance/optional claiming scores, and her rider, Paco Lopez, is among the top front-end pilots in the game.

I've got to have a couple late pick four tickets that also include Quidura (#4), who was caught wide in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T) at Keeneland in April and wound up just a length or so behind Dickinson and Lady Eli.

A - 3

B - 2, 6

C - 4

SUNDAY

Coaching Club American Oaks (Sar, race 10, 6:18 ET): In a day and age where top-level horses run once in a blue moon, it's fair to wonder why New York runs three graded races for 3-year-old fillies in the span of just 43 days., 

Yet that is the case, as the Coaching Club follows the grade 1 Acorn (June 10) and grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes (July 1), and serves as a prep race for the Alabama Stakes (G1) on Aug. 19.

Multi-race bettors will be hard-pressed to look past a pair of Quality Road   fillies that ran one-two in the Acorn—Abel Tasman (#2) and Salty (#7).

Abel Tasman has rallied from last to win the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn since adding blinkers, and while she was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown in the Oaks, the fact that she uncorked a middle half-mile in :46.43 in the Acorn indicates she is no mere plodder.

According to the Trakus data, a four-wide Salty traveled 14 feet more than a rail-skimming Abel Tasman in the Acorn, but an argument can be made that the inside part of Big Sandy wasn't the place to be on Belmont Stakes Day, which is often the case there.

The pace picture is fuzzy at best. The only entrant to have shown any early alacrity whatsoever is Elate (#1), and even she was held up off a slow opening half-mile of :50.88 seconds before going on to win a minor stake at Delaware Park last time out. I can see Jose Ortiz pushing the accelerator from the get-go if they get away in good order from the rail.

Daddys Lil Darling (#3) was along for second behind Abel Tasman in the Oaks. She cuts back from an even finish in the Belmont Oaks Invitational on turf, and if this race comes down to who can quicken best the last three-eighths of a mile, she's in with a chance.

A - 2

B - 7

C - 1, 3