Hot List Graded Stakes Review: Grade 1 Whitney Handicap
Image:
Description:
Moreno won the Whitney Handicap but didn't get a Hot List grade for his performance. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The biggest surprise involving the $1.5-million Whitney Handicap did not involve the 10-1 winner, but rather the poor effort turned in by the 3-5 favorite.
In terms of future ramifications, the puzzling sixth-place finish by the odds-on Palace Malice causes more consternation than the ability of the victorious Moreno to finally flash his speed from beginning to end.
Neither trainer Todd Pletcher nor jockey John Velazquez had much of an excuse when asked about the no-show by the leading Horse of the Year candidate, clouding reasons to be enthusiastic about his next start. While every horse can have an off day, Palace Malice figures to have plenty of handicappers willing to forgive the Whitney and will probably be a favorite when he returns to the races. We gave Palace Malice an A on the Hot List for his solid win in the Metropolitan Handicap, and were willing to back him at the anticipated low odds awaiting him in a race like the Whitney. Yet now, when we can only hope he’ll rebound and will get only a meager reward if he does, we’ll look elsewhere for Hot List material.
Moreno was also given an A by the Hot List team in his previous start, and his supporters collected a healthy $22 payoff for backing him. He was clearly the best horse in the Whitney, but after getting away with a relatively easy pace of 47.50 seconds and 1:11.31 in the Whitney, if he returns in the Woodward he’ll most likely face more pressure on the front end. Considering those circumstances and the likelihood that he’ll be more than half the price he was in the Whitney, there’s no inclination to add him to the Hot List once again.
Elsewhere, the runner-up, Itsmyluckyday, once again proved he’s as consistent as they come, but we’re still unsure about his chances of winning against top-notch rivals. We’ll happily include him in a trifecta box, but bet him to win? Not so much.
Will Take Charge continued his 2014 trend with a good rather than a great effort as he closed for third. Perhaps if he just trains up to the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he might perk up. Yet given his reputation as a 3-year-old champ, he seems destined to be more of an undesirable underlay than an attractive overlay going forward.
There were two horses, though, who qualified for the Hot List.
Romansh dropped from 24-1 to 18.10-to-1 in the final three minutes - meeting the Hot List’s late-wagering criteria - and received a D for his seventh-place finish. Hopefully his connections will give up the Grade 1 ghost after a 13 3/4-length loss and enter him in a softer spot next time where there could be a reward at the mutuel windows.
The most adventurous trip belonged to Last Gunfighter, who went off at 23.50-to-1 odds. He broke slowly from the outside post in a field of nine and then was carried four wide on the first turn while attempting to save some ground. Dropped back to last, he had no shot against the slow fractions but just to rub some salt in the open wound he had to rally in about the seven path turning for home. That he actually passed Palace Malice and finished fifth after all that says something about both horses, and we’ll give him a B in hopes that he’ll tackle lesser company next time or sneak into the bottom part of a triple at a big price.
Hot List horses: Last Gunfighter (B), Romansh (D)
Whitney Late Wagering Report
Horse No.
Name
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1
Will Take Charge
7/2
4
2
Prayer For Relief
39
48
3
Moreno
9
10
4
Itsmyluckyday
7
7
5
Palace Malice
4/5
3/5
6
Departing
14
15
7
Romansh
24
18
8
Golden Ticket
30
38
9
Last Gunfighter
25
23
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race
B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com