Betting the Saratoga Special on a $20 Budget
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Mr. Z (inside, above) came up just short of winner Big Trouble after a troubled trip in the Sanford Stakes on July 19. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $200,000, Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes is intriguing on many levels, not the least of which is the element of the unknown surrounding so many of the lightly raced 2-year-olds entered for the 6 ½-furlong race.
The Saratoga Special was first run 1901. All these years later, it's still one of the most highly anticipated showcase races for some of the best young racing prospects in the country. This year’s field is no different and includes horses from the barns of several high-powered stables.
The morning-line favorite is #1 I Spent It. A chestnut colt by 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, I Spent It will be ridden by leading Saratoga jockey Javier Castellano. I Spent It has only raced once but that one race looked very impressive. Since that race on July 2, he has also trained well and put up a bullet workout (fastest timed workout of the day for a particular distance at a track) just last week. The one red flag is that none of the horses he beat came back to win next out. In fact, the second-place finisher from the July 2 race came back and finished fifth in a field of six, against similar company.
Zayat Stables sends out #3 Mr. Z, who finished second in the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes on opening weekend of the Saratoga meet. This horse is appealing because he could've easily won the Sanford, were it not for some pretty serious trip trouble. Mr. Z essentially had to come to a stop, taken up before the quarter pole when he was checked in traffic. He then bumped with eventual winner Big Trouble, before losing by a mere neck. Additionally, it’s worth noting that he’s trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Saratoga Special three times in three different decades with Sovereign Don (1985), Bright Launch (1995) and Jump Start (2001).
SANFORD STAKES
Cinco Charlie (#7) also comes out of the Sanford and needs to be given credit for hanging tough with Mr. Z and Big Trouble, despite having been involved in a heated pace duel with two other horses who finished last and second-to-last in the Sanford.
Nonna’s Boy (#6) flattened out in the stretch of the Sanford, but the Todd Pletcher trained colt is still sure to get a lot of attention in the wagering. Pletcher also sends out the longer-priced #8 Stanford, a son of Malibu Moon who won his debut on June 29 at Monmouth Park.
Betting the race on a $20 budget is a little tricky because the race really does appear wide open, on paper. It’s my feeling that if Mr. Z gets a cleaner trip, he’s the horse to beat, especially if he gets a speedy pace setup to run into. I’ll use him as my key horse.
Selections
#3 Mr. Z - #7 Cinco Charlie - #8 Stanford - #1 I Spent It
Wagering Strategies
Strategy A: $20 to WIN on #3 Mr. Z (If we can get him at around 5-1)
Strategy B: $.50 TRIFECTA 3 with 1,7,8 with ALL ($13.50) and $2 EXACTA 1,7,8 with 3 ($6)
$200,000 Saratoga Special StakesSaratoga Race Course, Sunday, August 10, 2014, Race 106 1/2 furlongs, dirt, 2-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
1
I Spent It
Javier Castellano
118
Tony Dutrow
2
Lord Tyrion
Julien Leparoux
118
Ian Wilkes
3
Mr. Z
Corey Lanerie
118
D. Wayne Lukas
4
Tizcano
Cornelio Velasquez
118
Peter Miller
5
Rod McLeod
Robby Albarado
118
Dale Romans
6
Nonna's Boy
John Velazquez
118
Todd Pletcher
7
Cinco Charlie
Shaun Bridgmohan
122
Steve Asmussen
8
Stanford
Joe Bravo
118
Todd Pletcher
9
Cleveland Sound
Irad Ortiz Jr.
118
Graham Motion
10
Majestic Affair
Jose Lezcano
118
Chad Brown
11
W V Jetsetter
Joel Rosario
122
George Weaver
Tune in to Fox Sports 1 on Aug. 10 for the Saratoga Special Stakes and on Aug. 17 for the Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes.
The on-air duties will be handled by Greg Wolf, Richard Migliore, Andy Serling, Simon Bray, and Alyssa Ali. In conjunction with the broadcast, Racing 101's Joe Kristufek will be hosting a live fan TweetUP - @ABRLive #TJC Tour - beginning at 2 p.m. ET.