Litfin: Handicapping Stakes from Woodbine, Belmont

With all due respect to the Triple Crown trail, Saratoga Race Course and Del Mar, nothing beats autumn racing, when championships are decided and the juveniles begin to stretch out from the sprints of summer.

This weekend interest stretches across North America, thanks to an all-turf pick five being put on by Woodbine and Belmont Park. It includes four stakes, anchored by the Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1T), as well as the return of 2016 Hollywood Derby (G1T) winner Annals of Time in a salty allowance/optional claimer positioned as the second leg. Also in the sequence are the Canadian Stakes (G2T) and Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (G1T) from our neighbors to the north, and the Sands Point Stakes (G2T) on Long Island.

The cross-continent pick five has bettor-friendly specs: a takeout of 15%, and a 20-cent minimum that affords some decent coverage for bettors on a budget. 

Meanwhile at Churchill Downs, some potential stars of tomorrow will be showcased in the Pocahontas (G2) and Iroquois (G3) stakes, which are Breeders' Cup Challenge Win And You're In races for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile (both G1) respectively, and also the first point races (10-4-2-1) for the 2018 Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands (G1). For anyone who can zero in on the winners of these two wide-open affairs, where most are complete unknowns going long, I'd like to purchase your handicapping book.

Finally, the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes (G3) at Laurel Park highlights a program that is supported by six turf stakes, and features the return of Whitmore, who rattled off six straight sprint wins before finishing third in the True North Stakes (G2) when last seen in early June.

Let's take a look at the stakes in the pick five.

Canadian (WO, race 8, 4:29 p.m.): Many players will try to turn the "XC Pick 5" into a pick four, since Quidura (1) is a standout on paper in the lead-off leg.

Racing in tight quarters through the stretch, Quidura was beaten just a head in the Diana Stakes (G1T) by multiple grade 1 winner Lady Eli, who survived an inquiry. 

We'll have some backup coverage with Starship Jubilee (3), who won her first two starts over the Woodbine course, before being used up early against males in a recent prep for this race; and Elysea's World (5), who is 0 for 7 in graded stakes, but has a chance based on two runner-up finishes behind Dickinson early in the year for Chad Brown.

A - 1

B - 3, 5

Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (WO, race 10, 5:31 p.m.): If Quidura walks her beat in the Canadian, and Annals of Time lives up to his 4-5 morning-line quote in leg two at Belmont, the whole world will be alive to Hawkbill (8) here.

In his last start at Hoppegarten in Germany, Hawkbill set the pace and held well to be clearly second best in the Longines Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1)  behind Dschingis Secret, who returned to win the Qatar Prix Foy (G2T) at Chantilly last weekend. With first-time Lasix for his North American debut, Hawkbill sheds nine pounds from that effort, and totes his lightest weight since winning the Coral-Eclipse Stakes (G1T) in 2016. 

There's no one else in the lineup that classes up with Hawkbill, but I'm always leery of relying too heavily on early pace types in long grass races. The only ones that seem to have some kind of chance to run down the favorite are Noble Thought (3), who ran the best race of his life when second in the recent Sky Classic Stakes (G2T) over the course; and Messi (4), who won last year's Sky Classic, and most recently ran his last three-eighths of a mile in a shade over 34 seconds in a high-end optional claimer at Saratoga.

A - 8

B - 3, 4

Sands Point (Bel, race 9, 5:45 p.m.): Not quite sure what's up with Uni (6), who consistently displayed early speed in France, but was sluggish through the initial stages of a third-place showing in the Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1T) and a second in the Lake Placid Stakes (G2T).

Uni is one of three fillies entered by Chad Brown, along with Fifty Five (2) and Inflexibility (10).

Vue Fantastique (8) is a French invader who won the Prix de Psyche (G3T) two starts ago, and we've got to think she has a big shot in this spot, where no one has won anything above the grade 3 level.

We'll defensively use La Coronel (3), a three-time graded stakes winner who has been best in shorter routes so far; and Defiant Honor (9), who seems like a natural miler.

A - 6, 8

B - 2, 10

C - 3, 9

Ricoh Woodbine Mile (WO, race 12, 6:34): World Approval (1) set the pace in two 1 1/2-mile grade 1 stakes on this course last fall, and while he had also won the United Nations Stakes (G1T) at 1 3/8 miles before that, it has become apparent that he is best at shorter distances.

That was plain for all to see at Saratoga five weeks ago, when World Approval handled a rain-soaked course to win the one-mile Fourstardave Handicap (G1T) with a decisive closing kick.

I'm frankly a little surprised World Approval is the second choice at 7-2 behind Deauville (6), who is tabbed as a 5-2 chance after getting outkicked in the Arlington Million Stakes (G1T) for the second straight year.

Mondialiste (8), without a win in eight starts since getting up to win the 2016 Arlington Million, will try to recapture the form that also won him the 2015 Woodbine Mile, but at age 7 he's getting a bit long in the tooth and has put a lot of miles on the odometer already.

Conquest Panthera (7), Glenville Gardens (12) and Tower of Texas (2) all ran well when first, third, and fourth in the seven-furlong Play the King Stakes (G2T) over the course four weeks ago. The latter might have placed higher with better racing luck, and it's worth noting he came out of the same race to finish a close second behind Tepin in last year's Woodbine Mile.

A - 1

B - 6

C - 2, 7, 8, 12