Litfin: Turf Fillies in Spotlight Saturday

The focus is on 3-year-old turf fillies Oct. 14, as the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented by Lane's End (G1T) highlights the card at Keeneland, and Belmont Park's $200,000 Pebbles shares top billing with the Futurity (G3) for 2-year-old sprinters.

The weekend's richest card in North America takes place Oct. 15 at Woodbine, where the $800,000 Pattison Canadian International (G1T) and $500,000 E.P. Taylor (G1T) head a program that also includes the $250,000 Nearctic (G2T) and the $125,000 Ontario Derby (G3), in which beaten Alabama Stakes (G1) favorite Holy Helena will try to beat the boys, as she did in the Queen's Plate earlier this year.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented by Lane's End (Keeneland, race 9, 5:30 p.m. ET): With a forecast for sunny skies and a high near 80 degrees, the turf should be unusually firm for this time of year in Lexington. With two or three exceptions, just about anyone in this field of 11 could win without it being termed a big surprise, and this is reflected by the fact that European invader Wuheida (7) and two-time grade 1 winner New Money Honey are co-favorites at 4-1 on the morning line, with Proctor's Ledge (2) and Uni (10) right behind at 9-2, and La Coronel (6) at 6-1.

I can't recall the last time two non-coupled horses have been co-favored, if ever.

At any rate, firm ground should suit Wuheida, who has run exclusively in group 1 company since she won her debut in 2016, including a score in the Prix Marcel Boussac-Criterium des Pouliches (G1) over firm going at Chantilly. She will race with Lasix for the first time and will likely find herself forwardly placed in a matchup that doesn't have a great deal of early speed.

The lack of pace could bode well for La Coronel, who led for all but the final strides when overhauled by Uni in the Sands Point (G2T) last month. Two of La Coronel's three graded stakes victories have come over the Keeneland course, including a decisive victory over Proctor's Ledge and New Money Honey in the Appalachian (G3T). The Applachian was easily New Money Honey's worst showing on grass, and it may be that she simply doesn't like this particular layout for whatever reason.

A - 2, 6, 7

B - 10, 11

Futurity Stakes (Belmont, race 8, 4:46 p.m.): A short field of six—five colts and one filly—is entered in this six-furlong sprint, and they come off last-race running lines at Arlington International Racecourse, Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Saratoga Race Course, and York.

Filly Happy Like a Fool (2) has been freshened since she finished off the board at York in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (G2), but prior to that she beat a total of 32 other fillies in her first two outings—a debut win dashing 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland in a field of 12, and a runner-up finish in a 23-horse Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot.

Trainer Wesley Ward has no qualms about juvenile fillies against males, but it's a bit difficult at this point to get a handle on how Happy Like a Fool stacks up against Mojovation (4) and Engage (6).

Those two ran on closing day at Saratoga, when Engage was a pace-pressing maiden winner second time out, and Mojovation finished way back in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at a well-regarded 3-1.

It's noteworthy that Engage's maiden race had early fractions of :22.03 and :45.34, whereas the Hopeful three races later developed through opening splits of :22.50 and :45.92. Even so, about the only thing to be gleaned from Mojovation's effort was that he broke a step slow from the rail, and then did not seem too thrilled about running behind horses—something he didn't have to do when he won at first asking a few weeks earlier. A cleaner getaway here could be all he needs to bounce back.

A - 4, 6

B - 2

Pebbles Stakes (Belmont, race 9, 5:19 p.m.): The main contenders are drawn toward the inside, topped by the Chad Brown trained-duo of Rubilinda (2) and Thais (3).

Rubilinda's summer schedule was thrown out of whack by Mother Nature, and the daughter of Frankel wound up returning from a two-month layoff in the Christiecat on opening day of Belmont's fall meet. Although probably not fully cranked for that six-furlong race, and last of nine early on, she uncorked a final quarter-mile in less than :22—including a fifth furlong in under :11—and was along in time. 

Thais, meanwhile, made her U.S. debut in a one-mile optional claimer on closing weekend at the Spa, and also displayed a fine closing kick. She ran the last quarter in roughly :22.20 to finish second behind the grade 2-placed Malibu Stacy, who enjoyed an uncontested lead throughout.

Party Boat, who spent the summer being outkicked by Proctor's Ledge in the Lake George (G3T) and the Lake Placid (G2T), figures close and may be a bigger price than she should be.

Adorable Miss (1), Bellavais (7) and Dynatail (8) are somewhat improbable, but not impossible, and remain in play if things go well in surrounding legs of multi-race wagers.

A - 2, 3

B - 4

C - 1, 7, 8

E. P. Taylor Stakes (Woodbine, race 9, 5:28 p.m.): I don't have a great handle on this race. For one thing, Kitten's Roar (1) and Quidura (3), respectively, come off wins in the Ramsey Farm at 1 5/16 miles and the Canadian (G2T) at about 1 1/8 miles, and neither race offers a complete array of fractional times. Of course, neither do the overseas races of Nezwaah (6), Rain Goddess (7), or Blond Me (8).

Nezwaah and Rainha Da Bateria (4) were separated by less than a length when they both finished off the board in this race a year ago, but they both figure prominently in a renewal that doesn't seem quite as strong. Nezwaah has had a break since late August, when she finished a decent fourth while giving nine pounds to Enable, who returned to capture the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1).

The sleeper among the Europeans may be Blond Me, who was not persevered with in the Prix Vermeille (G1) last time out after taking a bad step five furlongs out. She ran well when shipped over for a second-place finish in the 2015 Sands Point.

A - 6, 8

B - 1, 3, 4

Pattison Canadian International Stakes (Woodbine, race 10, 6:10 p.m.): Erupt (9) pulled off an upset at 12-1 in this race last year, with Idaho (4) checking in fifth as the 7-5 favorite. They met up again at Saratoga this summer in the Sword Dancer (G1T), and both turned in disappointing performances—Erupt fifth, and Idaho sixth as the 7-5 choice.

If this were a strong field, I might look past them both, but that is not the case. Other than Erupt, who also won the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (G1) in 2015, the only other entrant with a grade 1 title is Johnny Bear (5), who just won the Northern Dancer (G1T), and had no takers when entered to be claimed for $32,000 at Tampa Bay Downs early this year.

The European-style layout at Woodbine has to benefit Erupt and Idaho, who seemed out of their comfort zone in the Sword Dancer around three fairly sharp turns on Saratoga's inner turf course.

On paper Chemical Charge (10) needs to improve, but he was beaten less than two lengths by Idaho in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2) in June, and has since won two in a row, including a 12-furlong race over the all-weather surface at Kempton a few weeks ago. A move up with first-time Lasix is always a possibility.

A - 4, 9

B - 10