Litfin at Large: Gearing Up for Breeders' Cup

Next week's 34th Breeders' Cup, the first ever down where the surf meets the turf, is a final exam of sorts for those who fervently follow graded stakes action all year long. 

But unlike a regular test where you must correctly answer the majority of questions to receive a passing grade, you can ace this one by being right just once or twice about the 13 puzzles at Del Mar: four on Friday and nine Saturday.

The fields will be full to overflowing. Counting horses entered in two races, a total of 210 pre-entries were announced Wednesday, including nine previous Breeders' Cup winners and 46 horses from overseas. As tempting as it might be to initiate an all-out search for winners now that past performances are readily available, handicappers are advised to be careful about engaging in too much premature speculation. Seven of the races are over-subscribed, horses are cross-entered every which-where, and nothing will be finalized until post position draw Monday afternoon.

With the prospect of 14 horses in many races (except for the Turf Sprint (G1T) which has a maximum of 12), and the final makeup of the fields yet to be determined, now is not the time for plotting pace projections or formulating personal odds lines in the search for value. Don't worry, value is inherently built-in, and there will be plenty of legitimate contenders that fall through the cracks at double-digit odds.

This is the time to start laying the foundation through research, and for developing some preliminary feelings about how the races seem to be taking shape. This weekend, re-familiarize yourself with many of the horses you've kept tabs on throughout the season, and gather some initial impressions about the ones you haven't, which, for yours truly anyway, is most of the Europeans.

In an effort to put U.S. speed-figure performances in sharper context, it's helpful to review any available information about race-shapes and track biases, whether through services like Racing Flow, or what is provided on specific track websites. The New York Racing Association, for example, has a "track trends" listing in their handicapping sections for Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course, and other circuits have similar information that is accessible.

As well as track web sites and You Tube, there are two terrific—and free—resources for replays:

• The Equibase Racing Yearbook is a free app that puts the results and video replays of all North American graded stakes from 2010-17 at your fingertips.

• For European race replays, the Breeders' Cup 2017 Video Form Guide located at Geegeez.co.uk offers a treasure trove for trip handicappers.

The preliminary goal is to get a sense of which races you think are pretty clear-cut, which are fairly competitive, and which are a chaotic mess. Then, by seeing how they are laid out according to the multi-race wagering grid, a plan of attack may begin to take shape.

We'll offer some suggested strategies in this space next Thursday, a day earlier than usual.

In the meantime it's closing weekend at Belmont Park, and they have a solid Saturday program that concludes with an all-stakes pick four of the Athenia (G3T), the Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3), the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3), and the $100,000 Awad for 2-year-old turf runners. The Awad could be the final grass race at the fall meet, as the forecast for Long Island calls for a 100% chance of rain Sunday.

Here's a quick rundown:

Athenia (Bel, race 7, 3:43 ET): Few if any horses on the New York scene have shown as much improvement this season as Off Limits (7), who lost her first five U.S. starts in 2016, but has won three of four this year, capped by a scintillating score in the Noble Damsel (G3T) over the same course. The main backups are My Impression (3), Time and Motion (5) and Penjade (10). We're defensively using Decked Out (12), who drew poorly but has run in grade 1 or grade 2 races since June of last year.

A - 7

B - 3, 5, 10

C - 12

Turnback the Alarm H. (Bel, race 8, 4:16 ET): Miss Sky Warrior (3) has been sidelined since an ill-advised pace battle with Paradise Woods in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) that deep-fried them both. She will be making her first start against older fillies and mares.

Judging from the way Elate manhandled Verve's Tale (4) and Eskenformoney (7) in the Beldame (G1) four weeks ago, Miss Sky Warrior, a four-time graded stakes winner, looms the one to beat off a slate of fast workouts.

A - 3

B - 4, 7

Bold Ruler H. (Bel, race 9, 4:49 ET): Stallwalkin' Dude (7) is following the same schedule as last year, when he won the restricted Tale of the Cat at Saratoga, and then ran in the Forego (G1) and Vosburgh (G1), before winning the Bold Ruler rather decisively at 4-1.

His main obstacle is Seymourdini (9), who has won his three starts this year by better than 36 lengths, capped by the restricted State Dinner in the mud at Belmont July 3. All of Seymourdini's wins have come at a mile or longer, but the sharp pace he set in the State Dinner suggests he can handle the slight cutback to seven furlongs.

Mr. Crow (10) and Divining Rod (11) are the B-team.

A - 7, 9

B - 10, 11

Awad (Bel, race 10, 5:22 ET): War Chest (6) unleashed an eye-catching late run to win his debut five weeks ago, and it's noteworthy that runner-up Congruity returns earlier on the card in race 5.

No fewer than seven others in the one-mile Awad also won their last start, including Therapist (2), who is the only two-time grass winner in the field; Bourbon Currency (4), who hasn't been past six furlongs, but whose dam was a multiple route winner; and Devine Entry (9), who was second to Bourbon Currency before graduating in his next attempt. 

Way Early (1), a New York-bred son of Tizway , erased an 11-length deficit to win at first asking, and remains in play should things unfold well enough in the first three legs.

A - 2, 6

B - 4, 9

C - 1