Litfin At Large: Breeders' Cup Key Horses, Price Plays

On Breeders' Cup eve many handicappers, this one included, are still mixing and matching their contender rankings. Here are some ideas on possible key horses and potential price plays in the 13 grade 1 events to be run at Del Mar Nov. 3-4. All races are grade 1 and times are Pacific.

FRIDAY

Juvenile Fillies Turf (race 6, 2:25): Chad Brown already has won this race three times, and he looks loaded for bear again with Significant Form and Rushing Fall. The latter is the morning-line choice after taking a 14-filly edition of the Jessamine (G3T), but Significant Form has shown more tactical speed, which may come in handy through Del Mar's short stretch, and I liked the way she kicked clear in the Miss Grillo (G3T). At double-digit odds, Juliet Capulet rates a long look. She beat out subsequent Natalma (G1T) winner Capla Temptress for second at Newmarket in August, and returned seven weeks later to win the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (G2) with blinkers removed; she is owned by Cheveley Park Stud, who also campaign 2016 Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) winner Queen's Trust.

Las Vegas Dirt Mile (race 7, 3:05): Even though he is based in Southern California, Mor Spirit has never run at Del Mar, but that shouldn't be an issue for a horse whose six wins have come on five different racetracks. He overtook Sharp Azteca in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1), but the complicating factor here is Accelerate, who raised his game several notches with blinkers on over the summer, beginning with a shocking front-running romp over Arrogate in the San Diego Handicap (G2). Blinkers also sparked a big turnaround for Battle of Midway at Del Mar's summer meet, and a reprise of his performance in the Shared Belief Stakes two starts back may be forthcoming.

Juvenile Turf (race 8, 3:50): I'm still open on eight or nine of these 2-year-olds, but pretty sure Catholic Boy will be among those featured prominently in pick four plays. Many casual bettors are unfamiliar with his trainer, Jonathan Thomas, but the former assistant to Todd Pletcher and Christophe Clement has gotten off to a terrific start, and Catholic Boy rated professionally inside early and finished strongly in both of his victories. Masar, the tepid 9-2 favorite, was headstrong through the early going and outkicked by the filly Happily at Chantilly last month, but that was on soft ground and he may rebound quickly. The home-turf advantage belongs to Encumbered, who overcame post 13 to win the Del Mar Juvenile Turf over subsequent stakes winner My Boy Jack.

Longines Distaff (race 9, 4:35): Two division titles are potentially on the line here. The older mares Forever Unbridled and Stellar Wind are a combined 5 for 5 since finishing third and fourth in the Distaff last year, while any among Abel Tasman, Elate, or Paradise Woods could wind up as champion 3-year-old filly with a strong showing. I'm going to take one from Column A and one from Column B, featuring Stellar Wind and the late-blooming Elate most prominently.

SATURDAY

14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies (race 4, 12:00): The California-based duo of Moonshine Memories and Alluring Star, who finished one-two in the Chandelier (G1), are logical keys due to their familiarity with the surface. The one-two finishers from the Frizette (G1), Separationofpowers and Caledonia Road, drew poorly in the outermost stalls and will be used only protectively. Faring better at the draw were Heavenly Love and Gio Game, who won at Keeneland for Mark Casse on Oct. 6, the former taking the Alcibiades (G1) and the latter going three ticks faster beating maidens by nine lengths.

Turf Sprint (race 5, 12:37): I'm pretty comfortable with record-setting Disco Partner and jet-setting Lady Aurelia as the A-team, but if things break the right way in surrounding legs of multi-race wagers it would be nice to have bust-out possibilities. At 15-1 on the morning line, Holding Gold offers some intrigue. He was only a length behind Disco Partner after six furlongs in a mind-boggling 1:05.67 seconds in the Jaipur (G3T) three back, and he was never fully clear through the stretch of the Turf Monster (G3T) most recently behind Pure Sensation, who was a close third in this race last year.

Filly & Mare Sprint (race 6, 1:14): Unique Bella is obviously a must-use based on her early-season victories over rivals who came back to win such important races as the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Cotillion (G1). However, there is at least some concern that she tends to break a step slow, and the field size of her four stakes wins averaged just 5.25 runners. Skye Diamonds is equally fast based on two wins over Constellation over the summer, and the erstwhile claimer should work out another stalking trip breaking toward the outside. 

Filly & Mare Turf (race 7, 2:00): Queen's Trust needed every inch of ground to nail Lady Eli in last year's edition at 10 furlongs, and the cutback in distance to 1 1/8 miles greatly favors Lady Eli. The distance change seemingly works against all the Europeans, because over there older horses are either milers or stayers, and 1 1/8 miles is no man's land. In fact, none of the five Europeans has ever raced at the trip. For back-up positions the lean is to the Americans, notably Cambodia, who has been freshened since taking the Yellow Ribbon (G2T) and John C. Mabee (G2T) over the local course.

TwinSpires Sprint (race 8, 2:37): Using the trio of defending titlist Drefong, Roy H, and Imperial Hint is probably sufficient to get through this race. That being said, I still have to take another shot, at least to some extent, with American Pastime, who was written up here prior to a tough-trip placing in the Gallant Bob (G3). This is his initial try against older stakes sprinters, but he still has plenty of upside after only six starts that include a win over the Del Mar strip. Based on the fractions he has either set or stalked, I don't see this group getting too far away from him early, assuming he breaks more alertly.

Mile (race 9, 3:19): Annually a pulse-pounding affair, this renewal of the Mile figures to have a high-octane first act with Midnight Storm  and Heart to Heart breaking from the two innermost stalls. The trip is everything here, and it seems like World Approval and Ribchester have the tactical speed to make their own luck. The fact that Ribchester is back two weeks after a hard-fought second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1T) is concerning, but the half-full view is he won the Jacques Le Marois (G1T) with 18 days between starts. I'll fool around with two longshots as well: Zelzal, who was just a couple lengths behind Ribchester over demanding ground in the Qatar Sussex Stakes (G1T) two back; and Ballagh Rocks, who exits a close third in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1T) for Bill Mott, as did 2016 Mile winner Tourist at 12-1.

Sentient Jet Juvenile (race 10, 3:58): "We're witnessing the emergence of a star," is how track announcer Michael Wrona described Bolt d'Oro's tour de force victory over Solomini in the FrontRunner (G1), and it's hard to argue with that notion. Considering that Solomini was caught wide early in what was just his second start, it's not difficult to foresee him getting better early position and making things a lot closer this time. The contingents from the East and Midwest have their work cut out for them, it says here.

Longines Turf (race 11, 4:37): Galileos are wild here, as the sire is represented by five runners, most notably Highland Reel and Ulysses, who are the likeliest winners. Highland Reel has basically never been headed in two U.S. starts for Aidan O'Brien, wiring the 2015 Secretariat (G1T) and 2016 Turf. Ulysses was a non-threatening fourth in the Turf a year ago, but is a fully mature 4-year-old now, and this is perhaps less daunting of a task than his last two defeats in which he gave weight—lots of it—to Enable. I have to have some kind of nominal action with Seventh Heaven at 20-1 or thereabouts. She was in tight early, and again midway on the final turn, when fourth in the Filly & Mare Turf last year at 10 furlongs. This is her best distance, and firm ground may elicit a return to her best form.

Classic (race 12, 5:35): Bob Baffert takes four shots at a fourth straight Classic victory. Spearheading the attack is Arrogate, who tries to join Tiznow as a repeat winner. The Arrogate who was beaten twice at Del Mar's summer meet looked nothing like the version we had become accustomed to, though, and it's fair to wonder if he simply doesn't get over the surface at Del Mar the way he has elsewhere. Stubbornly, we're taking the view that some combination of scheduling and jet lag may have had as much to do with it, but there are still enough doubts to make Arrogate a tenuous key. Therefore, the world's richest horse has to share top billing with Collected, who has never lost on a fast track, and ran out of his mind in the TVG Pacific Classic (G1) to hold off Arrogate after doing all the pace dirty work. The backups are Gun Runner, who is questionable at the distance; and West Coast, who emerges from a win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), as did Bayern when he began Baffert's streak of Classic winners.