Betting the Arlington Million on a $20 Budget

Up With the Birds (above, winning the 2013 Jamaica Handicap) has a chance to win the Arlington Million at a nice price on Saturday. (Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
This edition of the Arlington Million features a competitive field of seven. Marquee names Magician and Real Solution are your probable favorites after capturing the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the 2013 Arlington Million, respectively.
With a short field, we may have to look outside of this pair to find some value, although it would be foolish to dismiss their merits.
Real Solution looks to be back in top form, with a winning effort in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes in his most recent start. Javier Castellano, who rode Real Solution in the Manhattan in June, is back aboard. With chances of rain in the forecast, he could be a good safety blanket if indeed rain falls. He’s had strong showings on yielding turf.   
A name that has surfaced as a legitimate contender, both on paper and at Arlington, all week is the American-bred and French-raced Smoking Sun. By all accounts the 5-year-old has taken a liking to the Arlington turf course. Last time out in the Group 1 Singapore Airlines International Cup, he navigated quite the scrum to rally for second. I like his chances in a thinner field.
The third horse I’d like to see make a run is the mid-priced Up With the Birds. The streaky deep closer will be bringing the heat down the stretch. To add to his chances, he’s working with a little more real estate than in recent races.  
Strategy One:
$3 exacta box: Smoking Sun (2), Up With the Birds (#5), Real Solution (#6) ($18) 
Strategy Two:
50-cent trifecta part wheel:  5,6 with 2, 5, 6 with All ($10)
$5 win/place: #5 ($10) 
$1-Million Arlington Million StakesSaturday, Arlington International Racecourse, Race 10, 6:36 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, turf, 3-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Morning Line

1

Hardest Core

Eriluis Vaz

Edward Graham

20-1

2

Smoking Sun

Stephane Pasquier

Pascal Bary

9-2

3

Magician (IRE)

Joseph O'Brien

Aidan O'Brien

7-5

4

Finnegans Wake

Ryan Moore

Dale Romans

12-1

5

Up With the Birds

Eurico Rosa Da Silva

Malcolm Pierce

6-1

6

Real Solution

Javier Castellano

Chad Brown

5-2

7

Side Glance (GB)

Jamie Spencer

Andrew Balding

8-1