Handicapping Focus on Weekend's 2-Year-Old Stakes

Look anywhere across the country, and there is no escaping the realization that the entire Thoroughbred racing world is at the mercy of Mother Nature. 

In Southern California, Los Alamitos Race Course cards the nation's two grade 1 races Saturday, the $300,000 Los Alamitos Cashcall Futurity and the Starlet, after canceling its Friday program in the aftermath of wildfires that took the lives of an estimated 40 horses at San Luis Rey training center and injured several horsemen.

In South Florida, Gulfstream Park hosts the first North American edition of the Clasico Internacional del Caribe, a series of five stakes races for horses bred in the Caribbean that is anchored by the $300,000 Caribbean Classic for 3-year-olds. Among the notable race entrants is Justiciero, who swept the Puerto Rican Triple Crown at Camarero Racetrack, before that facility was badly damaged by Hurricane Maria in September. Justiciero is among the contingent of Puerto Rico-based horses that have not been able to run since the storm, with the exception of a non-wagering exhibition held at Camarero Oct. 29.

The 11-stakes card at Gulfstream begins with six $75,000 events for 2-year-olds, including the Pulpit Stakes, which was rained off the turf last winter and won by Tapwrit, eventual winner of the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1). 

But the weather in Hallandale is going to be very un-Florida-like thanks to a major storm system that has already produced a rare snow event in southern and coastal Texas, and is barreling toward the Eastern Seaboard as this is written. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front moves through in early morning, followed by occasional rain through the afternoon. A few storms could be severe, and the mercury may dip into the upper 40s, which will have native Floridians looking for their Uggs and parkas.

That same widespread system—dubbed Winter Storm Benji—is likely to wreak havoc on Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, too, and it will reach as far north as Aqueduct Racetrack, where there is a 100% chance of snow, perhaps as much as five inches.

Absatootly and Ms Locust Point, two of the seven fillies and mares in Aqueduct's Garland Of Roses Stakes, are cross-entered in the Willa On the Move at Laurel Park, where snow is expected as well.

Bob Baffert looms large at Los Al, where he will send out the top two choices in the Futurity, McKinzie and Solomini, as well as Dream Tree, the Starlet's morning-line favorite

Cashcall Futurity (LRC, race 3, 1:28 PT): Baffert has won all three editions of this race since it was moved to Los Al, and figures to keep the streak going with either Solomini or McKinzie, a couple of 2016 Keeneland September Sale yearlings who will vie for favoritism in this field of five.

Solomini (3) comes off a solid runner-up finish in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but it is McKinzie (5) who is the "buzz" horse heading into the 1 1/16-mile race.

McKinzie, named for the late Los Alamitos Race Course executive Brad McKinzie, a close friend of Baffert's who passed away in August, burst onto the scene at Santa Anita Park in a seven-furlong maiden race Oct. 28, winning impressively by better than five lengths under Mike Smith. The large-framed colt by Street Sense galloped out with plenty left, and the third and fifth finishers have since come back to win.

McKinzie's dam, Runway Model, was a two-time grade 2 winner at 1 1/16 miles, and it should be fun to see how he handles two turns.

A - 5

B - 3

Starlet (LRC, race 4, 1:58 PT): Dream Tree, a $750,000 daughter of Uncle Mo , prevailed by a nose over Midnight Bisou in each of her first two starts: a six-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita and the $100,000 Desi Arnaz Stakes at Del Mar. 

Dream Tree (3) will have to lay reasonably close to War Heroine (4), who sprinted clear early and widened to win her Del Mar debut going 6 1/2 furlongs, thereby earning back $31,200 of her $37,000 purchase price.

If those two should hook up, it will improve the chances of Piedi Bianchi (2), who is worth a win bet if she actually goes postward as the third choice in this field of five.

Piedi Bianchi is well seasoned after running in three straight grade 1 races. Following a runner-up finish in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and a third in the Chandelier (G1) behind Moonshine Memories, she ran a very respectable fifth in the 14 Hands Winery Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), despite encountering traffic between rivals through the lane. The filly she edged for fifth, Wonder Godot, returned last Saturday at Aqueduct to win the Demoiselle (G2) by nearly four lengths.

A - 2

B - 3, 4

At Gulfstream, it's exceedingly difficult to assess the form of the Caribbean-based horses, but here are some quick thoughts on the six juvenile stakes that precede the Clasico Internacional del Caribe:

Hut Hut (GP, race 1, 11:50 ET): My Favorite Gift (3) comes off a debut maiden win by more than 18 lengths in the slop at Gulfstream Park West, so the forecast may work in her favor as she takes on Bernadetta (4), a first-out winner for Todd Pletcher back in July.

Wait a While (GP, race 2, 12:17 ET): Filfila (9) and Subtle Step (10) exit promising maiden wins for respective trainers Chad Brown and Shug McGaughey, but all bets are off if the race is rained off the turf.

Buffalo Man (GP, race 3, 12:44 ET): Diamond Oops (4) won his first two starts at Gulfstream over the summer, before finishing off the board in the Saratoga Special (G2) and going to the shelf. He has been training forwardly at Palm Meadows.

House Party (GP, race 4, 1:12 ET): Courageous Queen (8), a good-looking debut winner for Pletcher last month at Aqueduct, spots experience to Take Charge Paula (9), a stakes winner at Delaware Park and Laurel for Kelly Breen.

Smooth Air (GP, race 5, 1:40 ET): Pletcher has not one, not two, but three entrants, with the strongest chances belonging to Coltsandmississippi (1) and Bal Harbour (9). The latter, idle since taking the Sapling at Monmouth Park, was a maiden winner in the slop at Gulfstream despite trouble in early June.

Pulpit (GP, race 6, 2:09 ET): A baker's dozen entered here, including a couple for the main track only. You can make a case for many of those meant for the grass, but a switch to wet dirt probably would help Pletcher's pair of Pony Up (6) and Maraud (7).

Pony Up was a sharp second when unveiled on the Gulfstream strip at five furlongs in July, before returning to win a turf route across town in October. Maraud, a close third in the Pilgrim (G3T) last out, has never run on dirt, but he is by Blame and out of an Empire Maker mare, and recently turned in two bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs.