Oppenheim: Big Gains at Goffs and Tattersalls

Britain leaves the European Union in March of 2019. Among the zillions of complications that will ensue, we'll have to figure out whether we can still just call them all "European" Thoroughbred sales, or whether we'll have to start talking about "European and British." That's not as important, though, as enshrining citizens' rights or making sure there's no physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

One thing we won't have to adjust, though, is currency. Ireland, France, and Germany all sell in Euros and will continue to, while Tattersalls sells in the archaic "guinea" (£1.05, they keep the £.05), while Goffs U.K. sells in pound sterling (£). That's why the tables included with these articles are displayed in three currencies: Euros, pound sterling, U.S. dollar. The tables cover all European mixed sales since Oct. 1, but the two most important thus far have been Goffs November and Tattersalls December, which finished Dec. 7. Arqana's December Sale, which ends Dec. 12, completes the Northern Hemisphere auction sales season, which we'll summarize, including Arqana, in our next article.

Clearly the market in Europe, as in America, is up, which was demonstrated by, if nothing else, the sale of three top race fillies for $8 million or more: Songbird ($9.5 million) and Tepin ($8 million, in foal to Curlin ) at the Fasig-Tipton November sale; and Marsha, who broke the European auction record at 6 million guineas (about $8.5 million) Dec. 5. American Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm bought Songbird; the Coolmore partners prevailed on both Tepin and Marsha, both of whom are headed to Galileo (IRE).

First question is, how do we measure the market? This is a tricky question. Calculated revenues in the North American and European yearling market were up 13%, though the average was up by more like 7% as 400 more (an extra 5%) yearlings sold; also, the 2016 yearling market was off a bit from 2015's post-recession highs, so, being conservative, we would say the 2017 NA/EU yearling market was up a little under 9% from 2015. 

Yearlings and weanling sales from year to year tend to be a little more like-to-like, whereas with mare sales, there can be wild variations depending on the composition of the catalogs. In 2016, Unrivaled Belle, at $3.8 million, was the high-priced filly or mare at auction in North America or Europe; this year there were the three already mentioned, plus Stellar Wind (also to Coolmore) for $6 million. Among them Songbird, Tepin, Stellar Wind, and Marsha grossed $32 million. They were just "elite elite" fillies or mares who happened to be offered at auction in 2017 and it's difficult to use them as indicators to measure market increases.

There were some impressive metrics at Goffs and Tattersalls: Goffs foals up 35% in gross, from €20 million to €27.1 million (possibly due in part to a change to "better" as to which days were at the front); Tattersalls Mares up an amazing 52%—though it's hard to believe that isn't primarily catalog improvement, namely 11 fillies/mares selling for 1 million guineas-plus as opposed to two last year; and finally, the whole December catalog up 32%—to a new record high of 105,255,500 guineas, surpassing the previous 2007 record of 102 million guineas and change.

Actually, however, I thought none of those were really the correct description of the market rise. Instead I added together the foals sold at Goffs and Tattersalls compared to last year, because these are to a much greater extent like-to-like. When those were added together there were 1,473 foals sold between the two sales this year, for a total of 56,553,200gns (converting Goffs foals from Euros); last year there were 1,440 foals which sold for 48,239,340gns. That is a 17% gain, which I think is the best approximation of the increase in the European mixed sale market in 2017. That's a very big gain, roughly double that in the combined yearling market.

Dubawi (IRE), Galileo, and Frankel were very much the big three in the European yearling market, and they repeated the dose, though with far fewer numbers, at the two mixed sales.

Dubawi's yearlings averaged the equivalent of US$992,678; his only foal to sell at either of the two sales topped the Tattersalls Foal Sale at 750,000gns (about $1.065 million).

Galileo, whose yearling average was $851,841, had three foals sell, all at Goffs, including the European sale-topping foal, for €1.1 million; the three averaged €708,333 (around $831,000).

Frankel's yearlings averaged $658,685; his one foal at Tattersalls brought 375,000 guineas (about $532,000). Five mares in foal to Galileo averaged more than $1.2 million; Dubawi had one mare in foal bring the equivalent of $1.06 million; and Frankel had six mares in foal average around $678,000. 

Nine other sires, including the top three with their first weanlings, had more than five foals sell between the two sales, for an average of more than $140,000. Shadwell's Muhaarar, a first-class sprinter by Oasis Dream (GB), had 11 foals average $281,994, good for fourth ranking behind the three superstars.

Also among this top nine, with five or more foals selling from their first crops at an average of more than $140,000, were Darley's Golden Horn, the Epsom Investec Derby (G1) and Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) winner, whose nine foals averaged $246,949; and the crack miler Gleneagles, Coolmore's Galileo colt out of You'resothrilling, a full sister to Giant's Causeway  ($140,193). Invincible Spirit (IRE) ($275,612), Dark Angel (IRE) ($259,506), Oasis Dream ($251,436), Sea The Stars ($168,631), France's Siyouni ($146,861), and Exceed And Excel (AUS) ($142,874) also had five or more foals average over $140,000.

Besides the three uber-sires, two other covering sires had big individual sales at Tattersalls: a Ballymacoll mare, Angel Vision, brought 600,000 guineas ($849,114) in foal to Invincible Spirit; and the well-bred Baltic Best brought 380,000 guineas ($537,773) as the only mare in the catalog in foal to Adlerflug's group 1-winning son, Ito.

Mares in foal to six other sires averaged over $300,000: Lope de Vega ($427,635); Siyouni ($418,510); Kingman ($355,163); Muhaarar ($350,967); Dark Angel ($326,889); and Kodiac (GB) ($301,750).

Top sires with their first mares in foal, aside from Ito, were: Coolmore's The Gurkha ($116,684); Derrinstown Stud's Awtaad ($101,190); Gilltown's Harzand ($100,913); and Haras de Bouquetot's Shalaa ($95,249 for three mares in foal, but had another eight cataloged at Arqana).