Value in Going Against Pegasus Favorite Gun Runner

Gun Runner , the newly minted Horse of the Year for 2017, is quite obviously the one to beat as he makes his final start in the second running of the world's richest horse race: the Jan. 27 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1), which offers an estimated purse of $16.3 million.

The Pegasus, the last of eight stakes on a blockbuster 12-race program at Gulfstream Park, is worth $7 million to the winner—approaching the nearly $9 million Gun Runner (10) has salted away through 18 races climaxed by a title-clinching win in the 2017 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). The Pegasus will be broadcast live on NBC from 4:30-6 p.m. EST, with post time scheduled for "about" 5:35.

Collected (5), West Coast (2) and War Story (8), who ran second, third, and fourth in the Classic, are back for another shot at the champ, as is Gunnevera (6), who dead-heated for fifth with favored Arrogate.

But wait, there's more.

Stellar Wind (3), champion 3-year-old filly of 2015, makes her career swan song in what will be her first and only appearance for trainer Chad Brown, who won his second straight Eclipse Award in ceremonies Thursday evening at the South Florida track.

Gun Runner will get no free pass for the lead, due to the presence of Sharp Azteca, who took down four graded stakes through a 4-year-old campaign that stretched from a win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) in February, through a romp as the top-weighted runner in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) in December.

As fate would have it, Gun Runner drew post 10, which is a tough go in Gulfstream's 1 1/8-mile races that feature a short run to the first turn. While it's plainly apparent that Gun Runner has tractable speed, so too do Stellar Wind, Sharp Azteca, and Collected. Barring something unforeseen at the break, Gun Runner seems destined to be strung out wide through what projects as a hotly contested early pace, and that makes him a tenuous proposition as the 4-5 morning-line favorite.

There are questions regarding the other early-pace types, too. Stellar Wind cost herself dearly with poor breaks in the past two editions of the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1); and Sharp Azteca is a true miler who has never been past 1 1/16 miles (although he did set a track record winning at that distance in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (G3) last summer).

Another big piece of the pace puzzle involves the strategy for Collected, who pressed Gun Runner from the get-go in the Classic, but then was ridden with no sense of urgency whatsoever as the 3-10 favorite in the San Antonio (G2) and checked in third behind Giant Expectations (12). The latter sailed along through absurdly slow opening fractions (24.69, 49.19) that day, and while he surely won't get the same kind of cakewalk breaking from the far outside, he too could have a say in how things unfold to the first turn.

All of this leads to the feeling that off-the-pace horses should get a favorable setup. Even though West Coast won the Travers Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) gate to wire, the newly crowned champion 3-year-old male has been effective under rate-and-finish tactics, and it's not hard to envision him getting a comfy pocket trip from post 2. Moreover, he was a late-developing colt who emerged during the second half of his sophomore season, and the Classic was not only his first run against older stakes horses, but it was also the ninth start of an arduous campaign that began in February and entailed several cross country trips.

The deepest closer in the race, though, is Gunnevera, who ran the fastest third and fourth quarter-mile segments in the Travers, and yet still drew clear late for second behind West Coast at 24-1. The Dialed In colt has run well fresh over this track in the past, and gets a switch to meet-leading rider Luis Saez, who equaled a Gulfstream record with seven wins on Wednesday's card. At anything close to his 15-1 morning line, he's worth fooling around with to land somewhere on the board.

Here's how we have it:

A - 2, 6

B - 5, 10

C - 4

For multi-race bettors, a lot is riding on the Pegasus: It is the final leg of a late pick four with a $1 million guaranteed pool; the final leg of a late pick five with a $750,000 guarantee; and it anchors an all-stakes Rainbow 6 that had a carryover in excess of $3.4 million going into Friday's card.

The Rainbow 6 sequence kicks off with a trio of grade 3 stakes: the Fred W. Hooper at a mile for older males; the 12-furlong William L. McKnight Handicap for long-distance turf veterans; and the seven-furlong Hurricane Bertie for older fillies and mares.

Some quick hits on those:

Fred Hooper (GP, race 7, 2:32 ET): Tommy Macho (8) won this race two years ago, and he comes into this renewal making his first start since running fourth to Sharp Azteca in the Kelso Handicap (G2) early last fall. Tommy Macho won the Hal's Hope (G3) here fresh last winter and is expected to give a good account. His biggest challengers look like Tale of Silence (1) and First Growth (5), but I will not let Beasley (10) run in on me at 15-1.

A - 8

B - 1, 5, 10

W.L. McKnight (GP, race 8, 3:04): My only opinion here is that Bullards Alley (5) is lengths better on rain-softened turf. He probably won't get that type of footing, so he is vulnerable at 2-1 on the line. 

Oscar Nominated (7) was a distant second to Bullards Alley over a boggy course in the Pattison Canadian International (G1T) at Woodbine, but his firm-turf form puts him right there.

Gold Shield (3) weakened late against Bullards Alley in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens four weeks ago, and should appreciate the cutback in distance.

A - 3, 7

B - 5

Hurricane Bertie (GP, race 9, 3:38): Curlin's Approval has won seven of 11 starts over the track, including a score in this event at 4-5 last winter. This is a deeper edition, though, and she faces an up-and-coming prospect in Marley's Freedom (1), who must deal with the tricky inside post out of the chute.

Others to consider are Rich Mommy (3), who closed out 2017 winning four of her last five starts, capped by a win in the Sugar Swirl (G3) here six weeks back; and Moonlight Promise (11).

Moonlight Promise has never run on dirt, but she is trained by Josie Carroll, who sent out synthetic specialist Ami's Mesa to a second-place finish—beaten a nose—in the 2017 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) first time on dirt. For what it's worth, Woodbine shippers have been running lights out in South Florida this winter.

A - 7

B - 1, 3, 11

A word to the wise: There is a mandatory Rainbow 6 payout on Sunday, Jan. 28, If it is not hit on Friday or Saturday, the pool should easily reach into eight-figure territory, so it's conceivable, however far-fetched, that you could hit the thing and make more money than the Pegasus winner.

Might as well think big.