Three Things to Watch: Can Solomini Step Forward?

As the Road to the Kentucky Derby heats up, each week BloodHorse.com will take a look at three things to watch from the 3-year-old division as it heads into the weekend's prep races.

This is a relatively light weekend, with the $900,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) as the main 3-year-old test March 17, but the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park is also on the docket. Below are a trio of storylines expected to have an impact on the races themselves and the forward progress of its contenders.

1. Is Solomini as good as the company he has kept?

For a horse with only a maiden win on his record, Solomini has put together a pretty solid résumé, which suggests he will add to the level of quality that has already shown itself among West Coast-based contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

After he finished second to Bolt d'Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) Sept. 30, the son of Curlin  finished ahead of that one in a second-place run in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and reached the wire first ahead of stablemate McKinzie before being disqualified to third in the Dec. 9 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1). Considering McKinzie and Bolt d'Oro roundly stamped themselves as the leading sophomores at this stage with their battle in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) last weekend, the aforementioned completely unscientific math indicates Solomini should carry near equal weight as far as expectations are concerned. If he still is getting his maturity to catch up with his talent as trainer Bob Baffert suggests, he should have plenty of upside.

"He's been training really well, so we're just hoping for a good run," Baffert said. "He is not going to wow you in the mornings, watching him train. But he shows up in the afternoons. He just likes to gut it out. He has a big heart."

2. Can Magnum Moon out-Justify, Justify?

The annual talk of the curse of Apollo coming to an end is heating up in the wake of Justify's gloried workout in his second start last weekend. The chatter stands to become deafening if the Todd Pletcher-trained Magnum Moon goes one better by proving himself against graded stakes company in the Rebel.

Owned by Robert and Lawana Low, Magnum Moon debuted Jan. 13 with a 4 1/2-length win going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park and returned to win in hand next time out going a mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 15. Where the son of Malibu Moon  was up on the pace in his debut, he showed he could rate in his most recent outing. It's a small sample size—a given when dealing with horses who didn't start at age 2—but it's enough that he was deemed the 7-2 second choice on the morning line ahead of such entrants as grade 1-winner Sporting Chance.

"He has been training well enough and running well enough to deserve a chance in a race like this," Pletcher said. "He had a little bit of time off during the summer. He is a talented colt who showed us a lot of potential (early). We felt that he would benefit from the extra time and January is when he was ready (for his debut)."

3. How seriously can we take the Jeff Ruby Steaks?

We're not talking about the sponsor-name pun, believe it or not. We're talking about how it's entrants might be viewed regarding their potential for the first Saturday in May. The 12-horse Jeff Ruby field, with its 5-1 co-morning line favorites, should provide for a fun, wide-opening betting affair. But on form it is hard to imagine the second coming of Animal Kingdom  will emerge—and recent history isn't helping. Last year's winner, Fast and Accurate, has one win from eight starts since, and that victory came in a stakes turf. The 2016 winner, Oscar Nominated ,has also proven most successful on the grass, while Dubai Sky (2015) and Black Onyx (2013) went winless the rest of their careers. All this probably guarantees this year's victor will gallop by five on Derby day. Bless them if they do.