Litfin At Large: Rebel heads up Loaded Stakes Lineup

Between the switch to Daylight Saving Time and the onset of March Madness, a lot of folks are heading into a St. Patrick's Day March 17 more than a little scattered.

This may or may not turn out to be a good thing as far as Saturday's stakes lineup is concerned, at least for yours truly, since they are something of a mixed bag: The Santa Margarita Stakes (G1) and the Inside Information Stakes (G2) for older fillies and mares; an all-stakes pick three at Oaklawn Park anchored by the $900,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds, which also has the Azeri Stakes (G2) in the sequence for the distaffers; and several stakes over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, notably the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and the DRF Bets Bourbonette Oaks (G3), which offer qualifying points (20-8-4-2) to the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Here's hoping for a little luck o'the Irish:

Rebel (OP, race 10, 6:09 CT): The pick three starts with wide-open renewals of the $300,000 Essex Handicap (race 8), an eight-horse field where I'm still open on five contenders; and the Azeri, where it's difficult to summarily dismiss any of the eight entrants.

The plan is to try and get through those races, either with fringe contenders that leave things up to Solomini (3) and Magnum Moon(4), or with key horses (yet to be determined) that also bring Title Ready(1), Curlin's Honor (2) and Sporting Chance(7) into play.

Solomini has absolutely faced the toughest competition, and while he hasn't run since being disqualified from first and placed third in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1) on a controversial call, he has turned in a series of signature workouts for Bob Baffert, who has won six of the Rebel's last eight runnings, including American Pharoah  (2015) by better than six lengths in his seasonal debut.

Magnum Moon has done nothing wrong winning his first two starts for Todd Pletcher, whom you also may have heard of, and brings along the hot-riding Luis Saez, the runaway leader at Gulfstream Park.

Sporting Chance, last year's Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner despite ducking out near the finish, figures to improve second time out this year for D. Wayne Lukas, who sent out Bravazo to win the Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) second time off a layoff earlier this winter.

Title Ready and Curlin's Honor drew favorably inside, and one or both may outrun their odds. Title Ready improved leaps and bounds with blinkers on for his initial outing this year, and picks up Eclipse Award-winning jockey Jose Ortiz. Curlin's Honor, a $1.5 million son of 2007 Rebel winner Curlin , stretches out after winning twice at six furlongs, the latest an eventful trip, after which he was "driven out to the seven-eighths pole on the gallop out," according to the official Equibase chart.

A - 3, 4

B - 1, 2, 7

Santa Margarita (SA, race 9, 4:00 PT): This race became a free-for-all after Unique Bella, who would have been a prohibitive favorite, was removed from consideration due to a cough. To put it in perspective, Unique Bella was breezing to beat Mopotism (9) by nine lengths in the Santa Maria Stakes (G2) five weeks ago, and the latter is the lukewarm 7-2 choice on the morning line.

Mopotism, Mended (3) and La Force (1) were the top three finishers in the one-mile La Canada Stakes (G2) on Jan. 13, separated by just a couple of heads in a blanket finish, and one of the more perplexing issues here is whether any of them really wants to go the 1 1/8-mile distance.

Indeed, other than Mopotism's off-the-board finishes in last year's Kentucky Oaks and Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), and a fifth-place result from Bishop's Pond (7) in the Beldame Invitational (G1) last fall, no one in the field has been nine furlongs on dirt.

The distance is not a concern for Fault (10), who won the Pucker Up (G3T) at the trip last summer, before a runner-up finish in the Sands Point Stakes (G2T), also at 1 1/8 miles. Although she spent most of 2017 on turf, Fault's maiden win (in the mud) did come off a turf-to-dirt switch, and she will be a handful if she runs back to her first outing for Phil D'Amato - a rail-skimming rally to win the Buena Vista Stakes (G2T) four weeks back.

Equipped with a shadow roll in the one-mile Buena Vista— as are many D'Amato-trained horses—Fault ran her final quarter in a shade under 23 seconds, and galloped out strongly.

A - 10

B - 1, 3, 9

C - 7

Inside Information (GP, race 11, 5:04 ET): Featuring a rematch of the 1-3-4 finishers in the Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3) earlier at the meet—Jordan's Henny (4), Rich Mommy (6) and Moonlit Promise (3), this seven-furlong tilt lacks a clear-cut pacesetter.

Compounding the confusion are negatives surrounding the first two choices on the morning line, Ivy Bell (1) and Mines and Magic (7).

Ivy Bell was purchased and transferred to Todd Pletcher after running second in a snowy edition of the Willa On The Move at Laurel Park to conclude her 4-year-old campaign. She hesitated and broke in the air to spot the field several lengths that day, and had displayed similar shenanigans at the gate on several other occasions last year. Now, she must break from the inside post, which is a potentially treacherous spot any time in races that feature a chute start.

Mines and Magic has run only once since last June, when beaten 10 lengths at 4-5 in a high-end optional claimer at Churchill Downs last November, and shows only a trio of modest workouts at Payson Park since early February.

The best guess regarding an early leader is that Rich Mommy, an improving daughter of Algorithms  who found herself much farther from the leaders than usual in the Hurricane Bertie will be handled aggressively in her first run for Irad Ortiz Jr.

A - 6

B - 1, 4

C - 3, 7

Bourbonette Oaks (TP, race 9, 5:14 ET): Mike Maker sends out the threesome of Queen's Fate (3), Homemade Salsa (9) and Go Noni Go(11). The latter is the tepid morning-line choice at 5-2 off a turf-to-dirt switch, but she has received comments of "rank," "keen" and "pulled" in her last three starts, and must now deal with the far outside post.

The one they all have to beat is Bet She Wins (10), whose only prior race on synthetic was a 9 1/2-length romp in the Arlington-Washington Lassie.

A - 10

B - 3, 9, 11

Jeff Ruby Steaks (TP, race 10, 6:00 ET): Maker has only one here, but Cash Call Kitten (2) rates careful consideration if allowed to go postward at anything resembling his morning-line price of 12-1.

Cash Call Kitten overcame outside posts to win both of his starts on turf at Gulfstream; the Kitten's Joy  colt is out of a mare, Medium of Exchange, who won her only start on a synthetic surface at Keeneland back in 2013.

The plan is to get him somewhere on the board, along with Archaggelos (3), Pony Up (4), Hazit (7), Blended Citizen (8) and/or Ride a Comet (11).

A - 2, 4

B - 3, 7, 8, 11