Three Things To Watch: Is This The Year for UAE Derby?

As the Road to the Kentucky Derby heats up, each week we will take a look at three things to watch from the 3-year-old division as they head into that weekend's respective prep races.

Both the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) and the UAE Derby Sponsored By Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) March 31 offer 100 qualifying points to its respective winners. Below are a trio of story lines expected to have an impact on the races themselves and the forward progress of their contenders.

1. Is this the year to get on the train for the Dubai-to-Louisville route?

We've seen this script of prepping in the UAE Derby before, and it's never ended particularly great. No participant in the UAE Derby has gone on to win or hit the board in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). Master of Hounds—second in the 2011 UAE Derby— posted the best finish when he came home fifth in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Last year's representative was especially peculiar with UAE Derby hero Thunder Snow pulling up after propping and bucking at the start of the Kentucky Derby.

Not only could Apollo's curse be in jeopardy this season, this may be the year to take note of who comes out of the desert. If Mendelssohn prevails, the son of Scat Daddy will surely be stamped as the best prospect yet to try his talents in the signature American classic. As a half brother to champion Beholder as well as grade 1 winner and sire Into Mischief , the ability to perform at a high level on dirt is in his blood. With his victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) in November, he has proven he can handle the ship with aplomb. For what it's worth, Mendelssohn has been flattered by those who finished behind him that day—Juvenile Turf starters Catholic Boy, Flameaway, and My Boy Jack all went on to win graded stakes on dirt. It also bears repeating how favorable the Churchill Downs main track can play to horses with aptitude on turf.

"Mendelssohn continues to improve, and we hope he can run a big race," trainer Aidan O'Brien said. "He did very well over the winter, and, mentally, he is very relaxed. He is American-bred, so we hope the dirt will suit him. He is quite a strong traveler, so we will learn more about him at Meydan in terms of the Kentucky Derby. You couldn't be sure how well he will stay as he goes beyond a mile for the first time, but we are hopeful he will get the trip."

In addition to Mendelssohn, O'Brien has said stablemates and fellow UAE Derby entrants Seahenge and Threeandfourpence would be under strong consideration for the Kentucky Derby if either secures a top-two placing Saturday.

2. Do Audible and Catholic Boy have much room for error?

It's not uncommon to hear trainers say they don't necessarily need their charges to win prep races in order to move forward, they just need to see the potential of peaking that first weekend in May. Given how many qualifying points each has, however, Florida Derby morning-line favorite Audible and fellow entrant Catholic Boy both need a top-two finish Saturday to avoid sweating it out on whether they make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Audible is 28th on the Derby leaderboard, having earned 10 points for his victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2). Catholic Boy is only a handful of spots ahead with 14 points off his Remsen Stakes (G2) victory and runner-up effort in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). Where 30 points has usually been enough to get into the gate since the points system was implemented, the potential presence of multiple overseas contenders—not to mention the four other 100-point races still to be run over the next couple weeks—means a chance at the roses for the duo may be lost with a slightly off day or troubled trip.

3. Does Dale Romans have another Storm brewing?

The Eclipse Award-winning trainer already has a hot hand in the Florida Derby with Promises Fulfilled, who went gate-to-wire in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Never shy to talk up his horses, Romans has been warning pundits not to overlook his other entrant, Storm Runner, who finished seventh after a troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth.

Storm Runner defeated fellow Florida Derby rival Mississippi in a 1 1/16-mile allowance test at Gulfstream Park Feb. 4. Romans said the son of Get Stormy  had his momentum halted on the far turn just when he was beginning to run in the Fountain of Youth. If Storm Runner doesn't find trouble this time, Romans might not have to do a hard sell next time the chestnut colt runs.

"If you actually play up to about the half-mile, that's where the problems were, when (jockey) Joel (Rosario) just started letting ... he tried to get him to ride up ... when there was no place to go," Romans said of Storm Runner. "I mean I don't know why he did it, and all he could do he was doing afterward. It was just a bad ride, and this is a momentum-type horse. You don't want to be stopping and try restarting."