Tip of the Week: When Yin Meets Yang

Photo by NYRA/Coglinese Photos
Some races can pose a dilemma for handicappers when they bring two disparate betting angles together.
We’ll start with A) Avoiding perennial maidens; those horses that have a deep disdain for having their picture taken in the winner’s circle.
Then we’ll turn to the powerful angle of B) Backing a horse who picks up the services of a meet’s leading rider.
So what happens when the yin and yang of A and B meet head-on?
It’s a tough call, isn’t it? Do you place more stock in the good news or the bad news?
In the case of Jennys Creek, there were some extenuating circumstances which helped to solve that riddle. She came into the eighth race at Saratoga on Aug. 25 sporting an 0-for-18 record that included five seconds and five thirds and $98,859 in career earnings. In her last two starts, she was a classic “money-burner,” finishing seventh as a 9-5 favorite and second as a 6-5 choice.
She had “Stay Away” written all over her after that sub-par last race – except that she was switching jockeys from John Velazquez to Saratoga’s leading rider, Javier Castellano. Velazquez, as a Hall of Famer, is hardly a slouch in the saddle, but backing Castellano at the current moment can be a highly profitable move.
So what’s a bettor to do?
In this case, an examination of Jennys Creek’s last start was beneficial. She had a legitimate excuse for finishing seventh in her last race. According to the Equibase chart, she was bumped soundly at the start of the race and then brushed the rail between the five-eighths and half-mile poles, forcing her to check and drop back.
Given a bad trip like that and sudden presence of Castellano at a time when he’s trying to win a riding title, it made sense - for the last time - to back Jennys Creek, especially since she was the 7-2 second choice this time around.
And in this case, it was the right call as Jennys Creek forged to the lead in the stretch and edged clear for a length and three quarters victory.
She was now 1-for-19 but in terms of the yin and the yang, she was 1-for-1 with a $9 return for a $2 wager.
THE LESSON: When there are conflicting signals about a horse’s chances, extra research is usually needed to toss out one of them.