Inside the Trip: El Kabeir and Raw Times

Horses break from the starting gate at Saratoga Race Course in a seven-furlong sprint. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Comparing raw race times is a dangerous enterprise. Speed and pace figure gurus who make their bones identifying various biases and trends with the way in which a track is playing use their proprietary methods to determine what is TRULY fast, and not that which simply looks fast.
Their wares are readily available and easy to find, but for the sake of discussion, this blog is about to compare raw times … as a warning.
Based on Trakus timing of the races at Saratoga Race Course, El Kabeir’s win on Saturday was the third-fastest of the 48 races at seven furlongs this season, slower only than the King’s Bishop and Forego Stakes. El Kabeir stopped our clocks in 1:21.87, while The Big Beast did it faster than any in 1:21.64 and Palace fired back in the Forego in 1:21.72.
There were two maiden races over seven furlongs on Saturday’s card, with Two Weeks Off winning the first in race two, stopping the Trakus clock in 1:23.20, 1.33 seconds slower than El Kabeir. Over the course of the meet, that time makes the performance from Two Weeks Off the 21st-fastest out of the 48 races.
Now, the reality check. There is just no way that El Kabeir, in his second career start, was nearly “as fast” as The Big Beast or Palace, Grade 1 winners with more experience than El Kabeir.
The dirt at Saratoga played particularly kind to inside speed throughout Saturday’s six races on the surface with three wire-to-wire (leading from start to finish) winners on the card. Itsmyluckyday was never more than 1 ½ lengths behind the pace set by Moreno in the Woodward Stakes, while second-timer Two Weeks Off was never more than a half-length off the lead. The biggest “close” of the day was Palace, who came from 2 ½ lengths behind the Forego pace set by longshots Zee Bros and Weekend Hideaway.
The fact that Palace was able to run from slightly off the pace and win was encouraging for his overall performance along with the fact that the “figurati” (our new word for the various figure-makers out there) deemed the track to have gotten a bit slower as the day went on.
El Kabeir’s performance was a very good one, but don’t let yourself get confused by the raw time, which could be easily misleading. While he is exciting as a prospect going forward (aren’t most big juvenile winners at Saratoga, anyway?), perspective is a necessity.  
Saratoga’s Weekend Stakes Data
Optimizer was the quickest finisher in the wickedly fast Bernard Baruch Handicap, getting his final quarter-mile in :22.82 and final eighth of a mile in :11.42. Wise Dan was the second-fastest finisher in the final eighth, clocked in :11.42.
TIGHT FINISH IN BERNARD BARUCH

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The turn-around for Optimizer after two dismal appearances early in 2014 was almost as incredible as the sight of Wise Dan, finding the finish line first again after going under the knife several months ago for emergency colic surgery.
Fifth-place finisher Stephanoatsee ran the fastest final quarter-mile in Saturday’s Woodward Stakes, home in :24.64 for his last two furlongs and :12.52 for the final eighth. Fourth-place finisher Zivo was next-fastest home, while Prayer for Relief was third-quickest home, continuing to dig down late and stay on, almost one-paced throughout his efforts.
Sunday brought the rain and the Glens Falls Stakes for routing fillies and mares, with Irish Mission landing the spoils for trainer Christophe Clement, covering the shortest trip over the 1 3/8-mile journey. Third-place finisher Caroline Thomas covered 27 feet more than Irish Mission while fourth home Watsdachances was wide throughout, going 54 feet more, a distance that approximates to 6 ¼ lengths. Irish Mission finished just two lengths ahead of Watsdachances, who averaged 37.3 mph over the course of the race, while the winner got the job done averaging 37.1 mph.
Del Mar Data Recap
Tyler Baze stole the Del Mar Derby in a tactically brilliant ride on Midnight Storm, leading from “go to whoa.” The field of eight was well spaced during the race and no horse covered a meaningful amount of extra ground. The final individual fractions showed just how slow the race was run. Sixth-place finisher Enterprising ran the fastest final quarter-mile and eighth, home in :22.65 and :11.42, with third-place finisher Talco next quickest in the final two furlongs at :22.76. For what it’s worth, Midnight Storm’s final quarter was :23.43.
Baze stole the race with an early move on the lead, going for home three furlongs out, and getting that internal quarter in :22.91.
Sunset Glow has been brilliant in her juvenile season, winning at Belmont in her second start, running a game second in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and coming back to the U.S. with consecutive wins in the Sorrento Stakes and Del Mar Debutante. Gutsy as this Debutante win was, Sunset Glow did enjoy a ground-saving trip relative to some of her opponents. Her Emmynency, Conquest Eclipse, and Dad’s Princess were second through fourth, respectively, and covered 25, 27, and 21 feet more than Sunset Glow. 
Juveniles routed in Del Mar’s 10th race on Saturday as Conquest Hiosilver went forward, saved ground, came back when passed around the turn and simply did not stop. These were impressive moves for a first-time starter winning his debut. The problem is that the horse he dueled with throughout, well-backed One Lucky Dane, was as equally game and covered 43 feet more than Conquest Hiosilver. Third-place finisher Nakamoto was in that position throughout and covered 29 feet more than the winner, while fifth-home Kenjisstorm went 59 feet more. The second-, third-, and fifth-place finishers all actually ran faster than the winner, averaging higher in-race speeds than Conquest Hiosilver.