Handicapping the Last Saturday in April

On the first Saturday in May, Bob Baffert will saddle Justify as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

Before that, though, comes the last Saturday in April. And as it happens, Baffert also sends out the morning-line choices in the only two graded stakes to be run in the United States April 28: Plein Air in the $100,000 Santa Barbara (G3T), and Dr. Dorr in the $200,000 Californian (G2), which will be a rolling double midway through the card at Santa Anita Park.

There are just three other six-figure stakes on the schedule in North America, all of them sprints: The $125,000 Elusive Quality for older turf sprinters on the first Saturday at Belmont Park; the $125,000 Whimsical (G3T) for fillies and mares over the synthetic surface at Woodbine; and the $100,000 William Walker, formerly a dirt sprint, but now a five-furlong turf dash that headlines opening day under the lights at Churchill Downs.

Santa Barbara (SA, race 4, 1:35 PT): Plein Air takes on five rivals in this 12-furlong grass race, four of which are trained by Richard Baltas.

The Irish-bred Plein Air (6) won seven of 10 starts in Italy, and made her United States debut a winning one when she lead throughout the Astra Stakes over this course and trip Jan. 14, beating two of the Baltas-trained runners she faces here, Lucy De (1) and Queen Blossom (3). Those two don't have much early speed, and neither does the Baltas-trained Pantsonfire (2), who is pegged as the second choice. That may leave it to Space Cadet (5), at 12-1 the most lightly regarded among the Baltas foursome, to take it to Plein Air through the early stages.

The only other runner is Causeforcommotion (4), who has been on the improve, but makes her stakes debut after being all out to prevail under preliminary allowance conditions.

A - 6

B - 2

Californian (SA, race 5, 2:07 PT): Here as well, Baffert has the one to catch and beat in Dr. Dorr (4), a late-blooming gelding who has been vastly improved in winning his first two starts of the season, capped by a front-running score in the Santana Mile, in which he hardly drew a deep breath.

Dr. Dorr has never been beyond a mile, and will try to get nine furlongs here, but there are no specialists at the distance to be found here: Only the 10-year-old Soi Phet (1)—who would surpass $1 million in earnings with a win—has ever won at 1 1/8 miles, and he's done it just once.

The Lieutenant (5) was along for second in the Santana Mile after being hemmed in along the inside turning for home. His chances improve if Soi Phet takes it to the favorite early, which is something he is capable of doing from the inside.

Worth a look to rebound is Curlin Road (3), whose only outing this year was a last-place finish in the Santa Anita Handicap Presented by San Manuel Indian Bingo and Casino (G1), when he simply reaffirmed his intense dislike for off-going, and was through for the day after bobbling early on the far turn.

Curlin Road raced on fast tracks three times last year after being claimed for $40,000 by Doug O'Neill, winning twice in the span of 11 days, including a nose decision over $1.2 million earner and multiple stakes winner Hard Aces in the Cougar II Handicap (G3), followed 24 days later by a fourth-place finish in the TVG Pacific Classic (G1) behind Collected, Arrogate, and Accelerate.

A - 4

B - 3, 5

Elusive Quality (Bel, race 9, 5:50 ET): A solid renewal of this seven-furlong race could easily pass for a graded event, pitting the Mark Casse-trained pair of Commute (5) and Conquest Panthera (9) against a couple of grizzled geldings who are seven-figure earners making their first appearances of the year in Undrafted (2) and Kharafa (10).

Undrafted, now 8, has made most of his money at distances up to 5 1/2 furlongs. Kharafa, now 9, kicked off his 2017 campaign with a troubled runner-up finish in this race behind Disco Partner, who returned to win the six-furlong Jaipur (G3T) in world-record time.

Casse's runners have the benefit of a recent race under their belts, and they have won at the distance. Commute will appreciate stretching back out after rallying mildly in the 5 1/2-furlong Shakertown (G2T) over soft going; Conquest Panthera, meanwhile, cuts back after flattening out late in the one-mile Danger's Hour.

A - 5, 9

B - 2, 10

Whimsical (WO, race 8, 4:59 ET): Back to doing what they do best are Scotty's Model (6) and Moonlit Promise (8), a couple of six-time winners on Woodbine's synthetic track that spent the winter out of their element, the former off the board in two stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the latter out of the money in two graded-stakes attempts at Gulfstream Park.

Moonlit Promise beat Scotty's Model by a desperate head while giving her two pounds in the Bessarabian (G2) last Novemer, but takes the worst of the weights under the allowance conditions of the Whimsical and must concede her nemesis seven pounds in the rematch.

The potential spoiler looks like Silent Sonet (7), a lightly raced and talented runner who won three of six starts at age 3, beginning with a debut victory over the track last spring.

Sky Flower (2) looks a bit overmatched here, but keep tabs on her in the coming weeks for a likely return to Presque Isle Downs, where she won five allowance races in 2017.

A - 6, 8

B - 7

William Walker (CD, race 9, 10:11 ET): This came up a fun little race, as the 10 sophomores come off races at nine different tracks.

Beckford (7), who was in tight early and lacked room coming off the far turn when beaten two lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), makes his 3-year-old debut for new trainer Brendan Walsh, who boasts excellent numbers in several relevant statistical categories.

Beckford, a stalk-and-pounce type overseas, projects to get a favorable pace setup due to the presence of several contenders with early speed, notably Masked (5), who has been away since winning twice on Santa Anita's hillside course in February for Bob Baffert.

Elusive Mischief (4) comes off a throw-out race on dirt at Keeneland when bumped early and steadied near the quarter-pole. He was an easy maiden winner on turf at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in his seasonal bow, and may rebound quickly at 10-1 on the morning line.

A - 5, 7

B - 4