Hot List Graded Stakes Reviews for Labor Day Weekend
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Competitive Edge earned a B grade on the Hot List for his Hopeful Stakes victory on Sept. 1 at Saratoga Race Course. (All photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
by Bob Ehalt
In some ways, the Hopeful Stakes is a misnomer.
A Hopeful winner has not captured the Kentucky Derby since Affirmed in 1978 – though, to be fair, 2012 Derby-Preakness winner I’ll Have Another was sixth in the Hopeful.
Since 1997, only one Hopeful winner has been crowned the champion 2-year-old male.
Of the last eight Hopeful winners, only two have won their last two races.
It’s against that ignominious backdrop that the latest edition of the Hopeful is approached.
As impressive as Competitive Edge may have been in winning the Grade 1 stakes by 5 ¾ lengths over a seasoned foe in Saratoga Special winner I Spent It, there’s the natural concern that someone faster may be lurking in the background.
Yet as much as there’s an urge to ignore him, Competitive Edge just might be cut in the same mold as the last 2-year-old champ to arise from the Hopeful, Shanghai Bobby in 2012. Both horses hail from the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher, who currently is the gold standard with 2-year-olds. He’s a son of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, so longer distances should be within his scope. He also won for fun in fast time in his Saratoga debut.
So we’ll hedge our bets a bit and place Competitive Edge on the Hot List with a “B” as a secondary horse to watch instead of an “A,” just in case some recent maiden winners turn out to be the latest incarnations of the fastest horse in the world.
We’ll also give runner-up I Spent It a “B” as well. He acted up in the paddock and the starting gate on a hot, muggy day at Saratoga, and that may have played a role in his first defeat after two solid wins. A one-turn test like the Champagne Stakes seems perfect for him, and if he behaves, he should register a better effort next time.
As for the wagering, the money poured in early on Competitive Edge as he remained an odds-on 3-5 favorite throughout the final three minutes of wagering. I Spent It dipped from 9-5 to 8-5, but that was not enough to meet the criteria for earning a spot on the Hot List.
Hot List horses: Competitive Edge (B), I Spent It (B)
Hopeful Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1 Maratik
21
30
1a Dekabrist
21
30
2 Sharm
22
29
3 Requite
11
12
4 Signature Cat
10
12
5 I Spent It
9-5
8-5
6 Competitive Edge
3-5
3-5
The $350,000, Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes, Aug. 31, Saratoga
by Bob Ehalt
There’s a muddy track at Saratoga and then everything else.
The ability to handle a wet track at the Spa is indeed a unique talent. Horses who relish an off-track at Belmont Park and Aqueduct have been known to flounder in the goo at Saratoga, and vice versa.
Keeping that in mind, the Spinaway poses a handicapping dilemma. As impressive as Condo Commando may have been in romping to a 13 ¼-length triumph, one has to wonder how much the rain-soaked, sloppy track helped her and hindered the other seven 2-year-old fillies in the field.
Adding to the quandary, off a more decisive rout than Ruffian registered in her 12 3/4-length wipeout in the 1974 Spinaway, Condo Commando promises to be a heavy favorite in her next race, which will ask her to extend her speed over a distance that figures to be longer than the seven furlongs of the Spinaway.
Having won impressively against claimers in her debut, Condo Commando is certainly much more than just a mud freak. Yet considering the low odds awaiting her in her next start, it seems best to avoid the temptation to place her on the Hot List. Let’s put it this way: If you’re looking to bet a horse at even money or less, there should be no apprehensions, and any horse coming off a mud win at Saratoga has to be viewed with some skepticism in her next try.
So for now, until we see her in a Grade 1 on a dry track, we’ll remember the 2014 Spinaway more for track announcer Tom Durkin’s fantastic final call than the “splashtastic” effort by the victorious Condo Commando.
Conversely, while it makes little sense to letter everyone else in the field, the other seven fillies exit the Spinaway with a built-in excuse.
Since there was not a major push in the late wagering (both Condo Commando and runner-up By the Moon went down only one betting notch), no one will receive a letter and spot on the Hot List. The logical approach, though, would be to cross a line through the Spinaway and look at each filly’s previous start for a better gauge of her ability.
Hot List horses: None
Spinaway Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1 Condo Commando
7-2
3
2 Angela Renee
8-5
8-5
3 Lady Zuzu
12
16
4 By the Moon
6
5
5 Darling Sky
6
7
6 Winter Dawn
4
4
7 Curalina
Scratched
8 Ryabinka
23
35
9 Bonnie K
18
24
The $300,000, Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, Aug. 30, Del Mar
by Bill Cloutier
All Sunset Glow needed was the slightest of openings to notch her second straight stakes win. Ridden to perfection by Victor Espinoza, the 2-year-old filly split a pair of horses coming out of the turn, and then held off Her Emmynency to capture the Grade 1 Debutante at Del Mar on Saturday.
Sunset Glow, the odds-on favorite after her easy win in the Sorrento Stakes last month, beat a speed-packed field of eight coming from the middle of the pack in a change of tactics by Espinoza. The winner paid $3.80, covering the seven furlongs on the synthetic Polytrack surface in 1:23.12.
After splitting horses at the top of the stretch, the Kentucky-bred filly by Exchange Rate, purchased for $140,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale, fended off a big threat by Her Emmynency by a neck but Espinoza said his mount could have run farther if needed.
Conquest Eclipse, sent off at odds of 14-1, finished third while making a good late run.
Sunset Glow earned a Hot List grade of “A” for her gritty performance. Her Emmynency earned a Hot List grade of “C” after taking late money at the windows, dropping from odds of 9-2 to 3-1 and finishing second.
Debutante Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1 Seduire
26
18
2 Manahatta
12
10
3 Starlet O'Hara
8
8
4 Dad's Princess
11
10
5 Sunset Glow
3-5
4-5
6 Her Emmynency
9-2
3
7 Stealth Drone
41
57
8 Conquest Eclipse
14
14
9 Windy Forecast
19
21
The $600,000, Grade 1 Woodward Stakes, Aug. 30, Saratoga
by Shawn Rychling
When Itsmyluckyday finished second in the Whitney behind the front-running Moreno, all the talk was that if he was just a little closer early on, Itsmyluckyday would have been able to run down Moreno in the stretch.
Enter Edward Plesa Jr., trainer of Itsmyluckyday, and his decision to add blinkers for last Saturday’s Woodward Stakes to help keep his horse a little more focused early.
When the gates opened for the Woodward, Moreno made his usual sharp move to grab a clear lead heading into the clubhouse turn and, like in the Whitney, Moreno was ahead by a length as the field entered the backstretch.
But this time, instead of being about 4 lengths behind, Itsmyluckyday was the horse tracking Moreno and he did so all the way down the backstretch and around the far turn when he edged even closer. Moreno then kicked away slightly to lead by a length at the three-sixteenths pole. But Itsmyluckyday and jockey Paco Lopez kept to their task and came back to draw even and outduel Moreno over the final furlong to get the win.
It was a tremendous two-horse race, but with the track favoring speed on Saturday neither horse will get a letter from the Hot List. For Itsmyluckyday, it was his fourth win in five starts in 2014 and he should be a force in the big races this fall.
Two horses did do enough to earn letters. Prayer for Relief gets a “B” after rating inside just a few lengths off the leader. He slipped out wide off the far turn to make a mild rally and earn the show. He has run several decent races this year and just needs a little softer competition to get a victory.
Zivo is a deep closer who never had much of a chance today, but he did close well against the speed bias to finish fourth. He had won six in a row coming in and earns a “B” with a good chance to return to the winner’s circle next time on a more level playing field.
On the wagering front, no horse earned a letter as a result of taking late money. Technically, the entry of Long River and Romansh did fall two notches from 6-1 to 9-2, but since it was not clear which horse the public was backing we will not assign a letter.
Hot List horses: Zivo (B), Prayer for Relief (B)
Woodward Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 4 min. to post
Final Odds
1 Long River
6
9-2
1a Romansh
6
9-2
2 Itsmyluckyday
5-2
5-2
3 Micromanage
SCRATCHED
4 Moreno
3
5-2
5 Prayer for Relief
20
24
6 Zivo
3
3
7 Norumbega
5
6
8 Last Gunfighter
17
21
9 Stephanoatsee
23
28
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com