Vicar Could be in Trouble in Super Derby

East Hall (12), above winning the Ohio Derby by a head over Jessica's Star, could prove troublesome for Vicar's in Trouble in the Super Derby. (ThistleDown Racino photo)
The 35th running of the Grade 2, $400,000 Super Derby features Vicar's in Trouble, who won the Grade 1 Louisiana Derby in March of this year while leading from start to finish. His next start resulted in a 19th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, Vicar's in Trouble finished third in both the Grade 3 Iowa Derby and Grade 2 West Virginia Derby.
Jessica's Star won the Iowa Derby before a head defeat to East Hall in the Ohio Derby and both appear to be contenders, while Alamo Heights and Ide Be Cool just finished first and second, respectively, over the track in the appropriately named Prelude Stakes.
The field of 11 also contains recent winners Announcement, Gold Appointment and Victory Nor Defeat as well as Louisiana Flyboy, winner of the statebred A.L. (Red) Erwin Stakes over the track last month.
VICAR'S IN TROUBLE IS VULNERABLE IN SUPER DERBY

Main Contenders
Victory Nor Defeat has run well in all three of his career starts on the main track, first winning in his debut in February then two races later finishing third in the Cherokee Run Stakes, both races sprints (less than a mile). Stretched out to a mile for the first time in his most recent race, Victory Nor Defeat rallied from ninth of 10 to win with a career-best-tying 103 Equibase Speed Figure and is on a pattern to run even better in the Super Derby.
As a son of Unbridled's Song out of an Affirmed mare, Victory Nor Defeat should really appreciate the mile and one-eighth distance of the race. Additionally, his late kick should be set up nicely by an early pace battle between need-the-lead types Ide Be Cool, Gold Appointment and Vicar's In Trouble, leading to his second victory in a row and an upset win in the Super Derby.
Jessica's Star gets the ground-saving rail for the Super Derby and as a horse that likes to track the early leaders could be in a perfect spot in third or fourth place early before launching a bid for the lead. Jessica's Star won three races in a row between May 3 and June 28, two of them stakes races.  In the July 19 Ohio Derby, he took the lead late in the race and came up a head short on the wire. Never worse than second in seven career starts and with a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure earned when winning the Iowa Derby in June with an effort that can be repeated or improved upon, Jessica's Star is absolutely a strong contender.
JESSICA'S STAR WINS IOWA DERBY

Photo by Coady Photography
East Hall appears to thrive on racing as he is the horse with the most races of any Super Derby entrant, 16. When last seen in mid-July in the Ohio Derby, East Hall ran one of the best races of his career to run down Jessica's Star near the wire and earn a 98 Speed Figure. Likely to be near the back of the field in the Super Derby, with a fast pace to run into East Hall could once again be rolling into the picture late and certainly has a chance to win his second stakes race in a row.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figure, is Alamo Heights (100), Announcement (93), Declan's Fast Cat (89), Gold Appointment (99), Ide Be Cool (103), Louies Flower (99), Louisiana Flyboy (95) and Vicar's in Trouble (101).
My Selections:
Victory Nor Defeat
Jessica's Star
East Hall