Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 6-7

Welcome to ABR’s initial Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls! 
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
For the first week of the season, all teams are tied for first and, with the parity in the NFL, hope springs eternal.
Most horseplayers avoid layoff runners because they like to get a handle on current form and the same can be said for NFL teams returning from preseason practice and somewhat meaningless games.
While I agree with the “wait-and-see” approach in the vast majority of the opening week match-ups, there appear to be a few diamonds in the rough.
Pro Football Trifecta
Sunday, Sept. 7
New York Jets (-5 ½) vs. Oakland Raiders
If the Jets don’t win this gimmee, is it really too early to put a fork in their season and their coach? The team knows it and so does Rex Ryan, so you can expect huge effort right out of the box at home. You can also bank that the defense will feast on a rookie quarterback in a hostile environment and the offense can only be better with Chris Johnson running the ball, Eric Decker catching it and Geno Smith with a year of experience under his belt.
Indianapolis Colts (+ 7 ½ and + $290) @ Denver Broncos
Let’s not forget that the Colts beat Denver in a shootout last year, albeit in Indy. With a healthy Reggie Wayne and Ahmad Bradshaw, the addition of Hakeem Nicks and Andrew Luck a year older and wiser, this team could make a Super Bowl run. Denver may still have a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, the Molly Welker saga could be a distraction and they’re giving more than a touchdown to a talented opponent.
ANDREW LUCK

WikiMedia Commons
Monday, Sept. 8
Detroit Lions (-6) vs. New York Giants – BEST BET
With the addition of wide receiver Golden Tate, the Lions offense is the same, only better and gunslinger Matthew Stafford enters the opener with all weapons at his disposal. The Giants have implemented a new offensive system, which may or may not help the fading Eli Manning. Either way there will be an adjustment period, the Giants running game is in flux, the Lions pass rush can be fierce and they’re at home with more disciplined leadership and lots to prove after last year’s playoff fade.
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Taking an untimely loss in a given week can ruin a school’s title hopes. That makes for a long season.
For us walkers of the Vegas lines, each week is a new season. We take a loss, we get back up and play for another championship the next week. And the week after that. … Put a couple of good seasons together, and we are looking at a dynasty.  That’s what we are going to do, build ourselves a dynasty.
Starting with Week 2, where we actually know something! We’ve seen some football!
While we may think we have the NCAA gridiron figured out already, we don't. But confidence is key to success!
With all of that being said, let’s get down to business. Each week, I’ll have my college footbal trifecta of picks, three picks versus the spread involving Top 25 teams (easier to find on TV, follow along, etc.), a best bet of all unranked games and a title that compliments this blog nicely.  And with that lengthy introduction, I’ll keep the pick explanations brief. Let’s go!
College Football Trifecta
#7 Michigan State +12.5 @ #3 Oregon (6:30 p.m ET, FOX)
Michigan State’s defense has the opportunity to give Oregon’s high-powered offense some real-life issues. As you may know, Stanford has historically given this version of the Oregon Ducks many headaches, and in last season’s Rose Bowl, Michigan State beat Stanford at Stanford’s game.
MSU quarterback Connor Cook is blossoming into a premiere college signal-caller, and Mark Dantonio may be the most underrated coach in all the land, but Oregon QB Marcus Mariota’s versatility and experience, combined with the raucous Autzen Zoo will allow Oregon to come away with a W. But it will be close, much closer than the spread indicates. And with the minimal travel effect for an Eastern time-zone team (game is being played at 6:30 East Lansing time), and a high temperature expected to be around 95, anything is possible.  
#16 Notre Dame -4 vs. Michigan (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Everett Golson looks to be much improved from the impression he left on all of us the last time he had played before last Saturday. And Rice is a decent football program, so you’ve gotta like what you saw if you’re a Golden Domer. Michigan was forced to pay attention and put maximum effort into a blowout win vs. Appalachian State to somehow erase what happened to them in 2007. In a night game in South Bend, in the last game for the foreseeable future of a long-time rivalry, Michigan won’t have that same focus and won’t have the same easy game. The Irish win and cover.
#11 UCLA -24 vs. Memphis (10 p.m. ET, PAC12 Network)
Memphis beat Austin Peay a lot to nothing. Austin Peay hasn’t won since beating Tennessee State by a TD on Nov. 17 … of 2012. UCLA flew across the country and played a quality ACC team at what felt like 9 a.m. to the Bruins. The roles will reverse for this game. Heisman hopeful Brett Hundley and the Bruins could very possibly have the 24-point spread covered … at halftime.
Best of the Rest: Purdue -4 vs. Central Michigan (noon, ESPNews)
Just trust me on this one.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek 
Each week, I’ll zero in on a trifecta of horses in high-profile races across the country, prioritizing winners while remaining cognizant of value.
Arlington Park – Arlington Heights, Ill.
Saturday, 7th Race – $100,000 Arlington-Washington Lassie
#3 Quality Rocks (morning-line odds 4-1)
Sent off at odds 21-1 in a 5 ½-furlong sprint in her career debut, this filly wired seven opponents under a hand ride. She posted a sharp workout since, adds Lasix and the added distance should work in her favor.
Kentucky Downs – Franklin, Ky.
Saturday, 9th Race – $250,000 Dueling Grounds Derby
#8 Medal Count (morning-line odds 5-2)
On the Triple Crown trail earlier this year, this 3-year-old colt had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby. His claim to fame is a third-place performance in the Belmont Stakes, but he clunked badly in the Haskell Invitational Stakes at Monmouth Park, a race he never should have run in based on the front-running profile of the racetrack. He’s bred to mow the lawn, his only previous turf run produced a win, and we already know he can handle distance.
MEDAL COUNT

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Churchill Downs – Louisville, Ky.
Saturday, 8th Race – $100,000 Locust Grove
#6 Don’t Tell Sophia (morning line odds 5-2)
This very well-managed veteran mare has won nearly half of her 20 career starts, and she’s got two victories and a second from three tries at Churchill Downs. She hasn’t competed in 5 ½ months, but some of her better efforts have come off the bench and her recent workouts indicate readiness.