Baffert's Preakness Success Points to a Justify Win
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For the third time in the past four years, the weatherman says there is an excellent chance the Preakness Stakes (G1) will be run in the muck and mire. That was also the case when American Pharoah (2015) and Exaggerator (2016) came splashing home.
The prospect of a wet track shouldn't bother Justify and Good Magic, who ran one-two in a sloppy edition of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) a fortnight ago, and now take on six opponents, including Derby also-rans Bravazo and Lone Sailor, and four so-called "new shooters."
The Preakness is the centerpiece of a marathon 14-race card at Pimlico Race Course that is supported by seven other stakes, three of which are graded: the Dixie (G2T), Gallorette (G3T), and Maryland Sprint (G3) stakes. Let's take a look at the graded races starting with the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Preakness (Pim, race 13, post 6:48 ET): As was the case in Louisville, the unbeaten Justify (7) and 2017 2-year-old champion Good Magic (5) look like the best horses in the field. But the same opinion that landed a $70 exacta in the Derby might get you $7 this time around, because there really does seem like a considerable gap back to the six others based on what we've seen so far.
Those looking to play devil's advocate with the odds-on favorite will point out that Justify required nearly 27 seconds to run the last quarter-mile of the Derby, and came out of the race with a slightly bruised heel. But those things may or may not be relevant. The torrid early pace incinerated several others who were involved in it, and Justify's foot issue seems to have resolved itself in short order.
More relevant is the fact that Bob Baffert has brought four Derby winners to the Preakness: Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, and American Pharoah; and they all won. As well, the Baffert-trained Point Given, the 2001 Horse of the Year, improved leaps and bounds off a disappointing Derby run. He is aces with these quick turnarounds.
Good Magic's effort in the Derby was good enough to win many, many renewals of that race, but it's legitimate to wonder more about the two-week issue for him, because this is not something his trainer, Chad Brown, prefers to do with his horses (recall that Brown's Cloud Computing bypassed the Derby to win the Preakness with the benefit of extra rest).
Justify projects for a trip similar to the Derby, only this time he will probably be sitting just off Quip, who is committed to come out hustling from the inside post. If the pace is fast again, and something wacky occurs, the likeliest suspects to pick up the pieces look like Lone Sailor (2), Tenfold (6) and Bravazo (8). The latter is particularly interesting, as Calumet Farm and D. Wayne Lukas won the 2013 Preakness with Oxbow , who, like Bravazo, was a son of Awesome Again out of a Cee's Tizzy mare, and coming off a sixth-place finish in the Derby.
A - 7
B - 5
C - 2, 6, 8
Dixie (Pim, race 7, post 2:07 ET): Word is that the turf races will remain on turf come hell or high water, but the course is likely to be a bog, which can be a great equalizer, and adds a big element of doubt.
While I have great respect for World Approval (7), he had no apparent mishap when fifth in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1T) 10 weeks ago, and it's usually a negative sign when consistent older horses suddenly throw in a clunker for no discernible reason.
Frostmourne (4) rates a look to post a mild upset. This will be his third start of the season, and he has won big twice before in that stage of a form cycle, taking the Awad Stakes on yielding turf at 2, and the Kent Stakes on good turf at 3. A bullet workout last week suggests he will move up off a fifth-place finish in the Maker's 46 Mile (G1T), which was his initial try against older stakes horses.
Fire Away (1) is 4 for 4 on the Aqueduct Racetrack turf, while Divisidero (8), who won graded stakes on the Derby undercard for three straight years, makes his belated seasonal debut. Both are fine with some cut in the ground.
A - 4
B - 7
C - 1, 8
Gallorette (Pim, race 9, post 3:25 ET): This edition of the Gallorette really goes through Cambodia (5), who won last year's renewal at a bit more than 4-1, and Elysea's World (8), who rallied too late for third as the even-money choice.
They will vie for favoritism against six opponents, all of which are double-digit odds on the morning line except for Ultra Brat (3), who was much farther back than she is accustomed to in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley (G1T) most recently.
The course conditions may work in favor of Blessed Silence (6), an import who beat males on soft ground twice in her native France. She appeared a bit keen through the early stages of her United States debut a few weeks ago, on firm going at Aqueduct.
A - 5, 8
B - 6
Maryland Sprint (Pim, race 10, post 4:05 ET): Based on their recent exploits, Lewisfield (4), Switzerland (5) and Long Haul Bay (9) are closely matched, and there is a significant gap back to the others in terms of ability.
That is reflected by the fact that they are the first three wagering choices, and everyone else is pegged at 10-1 and up.
The pace setup figures to favor Long Haul Bay, who packs a solid closing punch, and breaks from the outside projecting for a clear shot at Lewisfield and Switzerland, who both like to mix it up early. Others such as Red Dragon Tattoo (3) and Laki (7) are capable of impacting the early fractions, too.
A - 9
B - 4, 5