Betting the Woodbine Mile on a $20 Budget
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Jack Milton, above winning the Poker Stakes in May at Belmont Park, has a chance to give trainer Todd Pletcher his first win in the Woodbine Mile Stakes on Sunday. (Photo by NYRA)
This year’s Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile might be missing back-to-back winner — and reigning two-time Horse of the Year — Wise Dan, but the $1-million Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race is not lacking for quality horses.
From the perspective of someone planning to bet the race, the absence of Wise Dan also makes the Woodbine Mile an extremely attractive wagering opportunity.
A glance at some of the contenders reveals several horses who tend to run on or near the lead, with #4 Silver Freak and #8 Bobby’s Kitten being bona fide speedsters. A few others might press, and you kind of get the feeling that the race probably will set up for a horse coming from off the pace.
If there’s one horse who appears to be sitting on a huge race and who might also benefit from that pace setup, it’s Jack Milton (#9). The 4-year-old by War Front ran a strong third in the Grade 2 Fourstardave Handicap, a race in which he didn't see much daylight. Jockey Javier Castellano probably could have called on him a little earlier and asked him for more late, but it’s easy to imagine that this was the race they had in mind when they brought him back off the layoff in his previous race. Amazingly, trainer Todd Pletcher can't yet claim a Woodbine Mile among his 1,000-plus career stakes victories, but there's a strong possibility that changes on Sunday.
Another horse who merits consideration is Kaigun (#5). On this same betting blog, I pegged him as a top choice in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes at Monmouth in July. The race turned out to be one of his poorest showings to date. However, that was going 1 3/8 miles rather than the one-mile distance of this race, a distance at which Kaigun has won once and placed twice in three career tries. Furthermore, he’s two for two at Woodbine. He broke his maiden (earned his first victory) here and won the Grade 2 Play the King Stakes at Woodbine in his most recent start. Top local jockey Patrick Husbands (26% win rate) was aboard for both of those victories and retains the ride for trainer Mark Casse (27% hit rate together at Woodbine).
To round out your exactas and trifectas, I’d look at a couple of horses who can run into a placing late, especially if the pace is as honest up front as anticipated. Among those I’ll use underneath are #7 Lockout, a two-time winner on the course who rallied to finish just behind Kaigun last out in the 7-furlong Play the King; #10 His Race to Win, a graded stakes winner for legendary Sam-Son Farm and trainer Malcolm Pierce; and #11 Grand Arch, who finished second by just a neck in the Fourstardave in his most recent race.
Selections: #9 Jack Milton - #5 Kaigun - #7 Lockout - #10 His Race to Win - #11 Grand Arch
Betting Strategy on $20 Budget
$0.60 trifecta part wheel: 5,9 with 5,9 with ALL ($10.80)
$1 exacta part wheel: 9 with 1,2,5,7,10,11 ($6)
$1 exacta part wheel: 5,7,10 with 9 ($3)
$1-million Woodbine Mile
Sunday, Woodbine, Race 11, Post Time 6:13 p.m. ET
One mile, turf, 3-year-olds and older
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
1
River Seven
Jesse Campbell
117
Nicholas Gonzalez
2
Trade Storm
Jamie Spencer
119
David Simcock
3
Ancil
Justin Stein
117
Joan Scott
4
Silver Freak
John Velazquez
117
Brian Lynch
5
Kaigun
Patrick Husbands
121
Mark Casse
6
Dorsett
Luis Contreras
117
Brian Lynch
7
Lockout
Gary Boulanger
117
Mark Casse
8
Bobby's Kitten
Joel Rosario
112
Chad Brown
9
Jack Milton
Javier Castellano
119
Todd Pletcher
10
His Race to Win
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
119
Malcolm Pierce
11
Grand Arch
David Moran
121
Brian Lynch