Predicteform Woodbine Mile Stakes Analysis

Grand Arch, above winning the King Edward Stakes at Woodbine, looks like a major threat to win the Woodbine Mile Stakes on Sunday. (Photo by Michael Burns/WEG)
The Grade 1, $1-million Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes is run at one mile on the turf for 3-year-old and older. It is part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” series, which means the winning horse gets his entry into the Breeders' Cup and travel expenses paid (read more about the value of winning a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series race).
The race will air on Fox Sports 1 with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Wise Dan won this race in both 2012 and 2013 and then went on to win the Breeders' Cup Mile in both years followed by Horse of the Year honors as well.
Get the Woodbine Mile Pace Figures and Past Performances in addition to the race analysis.
River Seven (20-1)
One of two Canadian-breds in the field, River Seven has one win against Grade 3 company but has yet to break through against the top runners in the division.
His Pace Figures are on a decline, though his last effort at 1 ¼ miles should be overlooked as it was a PLOW (PLOW) Form Cycle Pattern – when the pace of the race is very slow and therefore pushes the final figure down. Removing that 68.9 from the set, he still looks a couple points lighter than the field.

The Play: Too Slow – His last race notwithstanding, the final figures are not competitive against these. 
Trade Storm (6-1)
The only European shipper in the field, Trade Storm has shown some back class by finishing third in this race last year. His 2014 European racing career on paper looks up and down, where as he is competitive at the Group 2 and 3 levels but not so much in Group 1.
His race on March 8 in Group 1 Jebel Hatta was rather interesting. He was third-to-last most of the way in a race that was run very slowly up front. He rallied wide and made up lengths against a field where no one else was moving forward. He had a poor showing in the $5-million, 1 1/8-mile Dubai Duty Free followed by two good efforts in the UK in Group 3 races. Jaime Spencer, his regular rider, comes in to ride, which is a positive as Spencer has shown success shipping in to ride graded stakes winners in North America. (Side Glance finished third in the Arlington Million).
The Play: Fringe Contender – Competitive last year in this race, he is on another good line as the only Euro shipper, and at 6-1 on the morning line, he has value.
Ancil (30-1)
With two eighth-place finishes and a 12th-place finish in his three Grade 3 races, Ancil looks to be up against it is this Grade 1 race.
Looking at his Pace Figures, he’s competed in sprints his last 12 races and has put up high four-furlong figures in most. A sprinter going long in this case is most likely to go strong to the lead, which could intensify an early pace.

The Play:  Too Slow – Though he could challenge for (or get) the lead early, his lack of depth going long means he will be finished early.
Sliver Freak (20-1)
The lightest raced horse in the field, Silver Freak has only eight lifetime starts. Further, his first race was at 4 years old, just a year ago, an oddity for a Grade 1 Stakes competitor. Speaking of which, he has yet to run in graded stakes company, however he did run third in May against Lockout (#7),who subsequently has proved himself a graded stakes competitor. “Freak” picks up John Velazquez as the rider (one of the top jocks in the country, especially on front-runners) as Joel Rosario moves to Bobby’s Kitten.
Looking at his Pace Figures, he has the highest last race final figure in the race of 82.3 while managing his energy efficiently as shown by the 74.9 four furlong figure (also note the race was one mile). His prior two efforts in 2014 both were in the very high 70s, again with consistent 4f figures.

The Play: Not Quite - The fastest last Final Pace Figure is worth something, though this field is laden with speed. It’s a tough bet to make that he can rate and repeat his last effort.
Kaigun (5-2)
A hard trying Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 competitor, Kaigun’s last five starts have been at five different tracks and five different distances. Leading Woodbine jockey Patrick Husbands, gave him a perfect ride in winning the Grade 2 Play the King Stakes, sitting well off a furious speed duel (on Aug. 10). He ran well against the aforementioned Wise Dan on two occasions this year and is 2-for-2 at Woodbine lifetime. He also is trained by leading Canadian trainer Mark Casse.
Looking at his Pace Figures, he ran a lifetime top of 78 in his last start with an inflated 74.2 4f figure (as the lead horses went very fast up front). His Pace Figures in his six 2014 starts are all between 74.8 – 77.2 with 4f figures between 53.7 and 66.7.

The Play: Too Slow – Lifetime top combined with consistent final and 4f figure that look to be a bit slow make him an underlay with no value as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.
Dorsett (15-1)
Another runner who has tested graded stakes level competition with little luck, Dorsett has a couple of fourth-place finishes most recently against quality Grade 2 runners. Dating back to July 2013, he’s got one start at SEVEN different racetracks, all between the one-mile and 1 1/8-mile distances. He’s also had SEVEN different jockeys over that same period. Not surprisingly, he changed trainer’s two starts ago and picks up one of the top Canadian jockeys in Luis Contreras.
Turning to his Pace Figures, his most recent effort was an 80.2 at Saratoga. Preceding that race he ran at 44.3 PLOW (which as note above, you can “draw a line through”), followed by a 67.6, 75.8, a big move over three races.

The Play: Regressor – Lifetime top combined with a three-race forward progress pattern indicates regression.
Lockout (10-1)
Another trained by Mark Casse, Lockout exits the same race as Kaigun on Aug. 10. Visually speaking, his effort was more impressive. He was dead last the entire race and came six wide through the stretch (vs. Kaigun who rallied up the rail). He stretches out from 7 furlongs to one mile and retails journeyman jockey Gary Boulanger who probably will have him in a similar position early in the race.
Looking at his Pace Figures, they are more impactful than his PPs. His most recent four Final Pace Figures have been 80.5 – 77.5 – 77.5 – 77.4. His 4f figure spiked at 80.6 but settled last race at 70.9 indicating a runner who is doing a better job of managing his energy.

The Play: Longshot – While he is unlikely to be forwardly placed and close to the lead and does have one of the weaker jockeys in the race, his Pace Figures say he could compete as this level with his best effort.
Bobby's Kitten (15-1)
The only 3-year-old in the field, Bobby’s Kitten ships in to Woodbine for the first time for U.S. leading owner Ken Ramsey and trainer Chad Brown, who excels with turf runners. He raced four times as a 2-year-old, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and now five times in his 3-year-old season. Javier Castellano opts off Bobby’s Kitten and Joel Rosario climbs aboard. Rosario might actually be a better fit for this front-runner as he is one of the strongest riders in the country on the front end. Speaking of which, all of Bobby’s Kitten’s wins except one came when leading from start to finish, , which means he does his best running on the lead.
His Pace Figure line is as interesting as it is confusing. His top figure at two was a 79, a very big number at that age. He looked to be slowly finding his “sea legs” at three by testing (with little success) the graded stakes level until his most recent effort at Saratoga, where he ran an 80.7. Normally, a 10-point jump (from 70.9 – 80.7) could be seen as a big top, though his 2-year-old race of 79 makes it seem more likely.

The Play: Regressor – Rating better than he has done in his lifetime is his key merit and it is just not backable at this Grade 1 level of competition.
Jack Milton (7-2)
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the leading trainer in North America, Jack Milton has been on a horseplayer’s wish list in every start. He has four wins, one second and five thirds from 12 lifetime starts and has never had greater odds than 9-2. He has been raced selectively and properly in each start, which is a skill unto itself. He has finished third in two Grade 1 races and is a two-time winner in Grade 3 races. North American leading jockey Javier Castellano stays on board.
Visually speaking, his last effort was just OK. Castellano was on the whip most of the stretch and, while he didn’t have a lot of running room, it looked more like he was hanging. He is on a good Form Cycle Pattern moving from 77.9 – 79.9 – 79.1 – 81.2 (most recent) while his 4f and 6f figures are consistent.

The Play: Fringe Contender – There is much to like here with the exception of that last race visually. At odds above 4-1, there is value.
His Race to Win (15-1)
A multiple Grade 3 winner on the all-weather surface at Woodbine, His Race to Win gets back on turf where he is just 1-for-6 lifetime.
His Final Pace Figures are in the high 70s (on the all-weather), however his two starts on turf are just 76 and 60.

The Play: Too Slow – Lesser Pace Figures and an indication that turf is not his preferred surface are tough obstacles to overcome.
Grand Arch (4-1)
With three wins, a second and two thirds in six starts on the Woodbine turf, Grand Arch has the home-field advantage. While the outside post is a negative, he has enough go to not need to rally from last. Visually speaking, his last race was impressive. He was beaten by Seek Again, who was full of run in his last, putting up an 82 final figure, and might be Wise Dan’s main competition for the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
His last three sets of pace figures are 81.2/75.8 – 79.4/68.5 - 74.8/59.6 show increases in both 4f and Final Figure while still maintaining a six-point turf spread (difference between final and 4 figure). The 80.5 in June of last year solidifies the 81.2 as a reasonable final figure.

The Play: Contender – Pace Figures, track success and Form Cycle Pattern all point to another forward move.
$1-million Woodbine MileSunday, Woodbine, Race 11, Post Time 6:13 p.m. ETOne mile,  turf,  3-year-olds and older 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

River Seven

Jesse Campbell

117

Nicholas Gonzalez

2

Trade Storm

Jamie Spencer

119

David Simcock

3

Ancil 

Justin Stein

117

Joan Scott

4

Silver Freak 

John Velazquez

117

Brian Lynch

5

Kaigun 

Patrick Husbands

121

Mark Casse

6

Dorsett 

Luis Contreras

117

Brian Lynch

7

Lockout 

Gary Boulanger

117

Mark Casse

8

Bobby's Kitten 

Joel Rosario

112

Chad Brown

9

Jack Milton 

Javier Castellano

119

Todd Pletcher

10

His Race to Win 

Eurico Rosa Da Silva

119

Malcolm Pierce

11

Grand Arch 

David Moran

121

Brian Lynch