Justify Continues to Impress, Could Breeze Tuesday

Bob Baffert famously trains by feel and instinct. He quantifies his commitments—be it to a race or workout—with the disclaimer that his charges have to show him what they're ready for; and if he sees form swinging one direction or another, he is not afraid to make a last-second change in plans.

After reading Justify's big, red tea leaves at Churchill Downs the morning of May 28, the Hall of Fame conditioner believes the dual classic winner in his care is ready for something more serious in advance of his scheduled start in the final leg of the Triple Crown. With unbeaten Justify showing he's maintained his flesh and energy during his routine gallop beneath the Twin Spires, Baffert said he could put a breeze into the son of Scat Daddy May 29 in preparation for the June 9 Belmont Stakes (G1).

"I take all my horses day by day. That's the way I train. I go by what they look like, and I wanted to see how he looked today out there," said Baffert, who came in from his California base to see how Justify is progressing. "If I saw something I didn't like, maybe I'd back off a bit, but he seems strong. He's moving really well, he's hitting the ground really well, and you can tell his rider has his hands full. I might (breeze Tuesday), I'm just going to see how the track is."

Since returning from Baltimore where he added the May 19 Preakness Stakes (G1) to an unblemished résumé that also includes a sublime triumph in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), Justify has continued to defy the strain of packing his five races into a span of about 90 days. Should he put in a timed move Tuesday, he would be following a similar work pattern as the last Baffert trainee who was in this position, as eventual 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah  also breezed 10 days after his Preakness triumph.

"We don't train scared," Baffert said. "He (Justify) has to go a mile and a half and I want to make sure that when I throw (jockey) Mike Smith on his back that he has a full tank of gas and this horse is ready. Because if he's not ready, it doesn't matter what Mike does. It's up to us to give him his best chance."

Good luck finding much fault with the decisions Baffert has made on Justify's behalf thus far.

Since debuting Feb. 18, the longest break Justify has had between starts is the four weeks from his April 7 Santa Anita Derby (G1) triumph to his May 5 Kentucky Derby heroics. The colt's constitution hasn't wavered throughout, something Baffert says is a trait he shares with the other standouts he has brought to this point.

"Flesh-wise he looks great," Baffert said. "It's like 'Pharoah,' he looked great coming into (the Belmont Stakes). The thing (Justify) has going into it is he's a big, strong horse, so he can handle it. He eats everything you put in front of him. That's the key thing is they don't lose weight.

"He's done a lot in just a few months and he still looks like he hasn't run that many times. That just goes to show you the quality that he has. 'Pharoah' was the same way, he just got better as he went on."

What has continued to evolve where Justify is concerned is the field of potential rivals he could face in the 12-furlong classic at Belmont Park.

Grade 1 winner Free Drop Billy put in a five-furlong work in :59 3/5 Monday, the second timed breeze for the son of Union Rags  since his 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Working solo, Free Drop Billy had trainer Dale Romans declaring him probable for the Belmont after registering splits of :12 3/5, :23 4/5, :35 3/5, and :47 with a gallop out to six furlongs in 1:12, seven furlongs in 1:25 1/5, and one mile 1:39 4/5.

"He looked good, he worked good," Romans said. "I'm still looking at something to move me one way or another but ... he'll probably run."

The final decision rests with Dennis Albaugh and his son-in-law, Albaugh Family Stables' racing manager and partner Jason Loutsch.

Loutsch told the New York Racing Association a decision would be made Monday night when he sees Albaugh at a family barbecue.

"We wanted to get past this last big work and see how his energy level was," Loutsch explained. "Obviously, we were really disappointed in his effort in the Kentucky Derby. We're going to try to erase that, hopefully it was the slop and he didn't like the track. But it seems like he had a good work this morning, lots of energy, galloped out strong.

"Justify looks unbeatable the way he's been training this week, but I'll give Dennis the pros and cons and let him say yes or no. This is what we're in the business for, a big race like this. We know it's a tall task, but if we can get a piece of it that would be a huge deal. It's going to be a big day of racing, and this is what we're in the game for... Anything can happen. Dale has brought in longer shots before. That's why you go in the gate and hope some day we're going to break through."

Loutsch added his only concern is that a taxing effort in the Belmont might knock Free Drop Billy out of big races later in the summer, including at Saratoga Race Course.

Free Drop Billy hasn't won since capturing the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last October but has a pedigree that suggest the Belmont's 1 1/2-mile distance is within his scope. His sire, Union Rags, prevailed in the 2012 edition of the marathon classic and Free Drop Billy's half brother Hawkbill captured the Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) contested at 2,410 meters this March.

"His brother won at a mile and a half so (distance) shouldn't be a problem," Romans said.

Bravazo and Tenfold, the second and third place finishers in the Preakness, respectively, were also on the track at Churchill Downs Monday putting in routine gallops in their Belmont preparations.

Restoring Hope, who is also trained by Baffert, also galloped Monday and is slated to work Tuesday morning toward his likely spot in the Belmont Stakes starting gate.

"He's going to work, he needs to breeze two more times and breeze well," Baffert said.