Three-Year-Old Championship Anything But a One-Horse Race

Very little separated V. E. Day and Wicked Strong in the Travers Stakes but they aren't the only ones in the running for the 3-year-old Eclipse Award. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Professional sports teams have a rather clear-cut and defined method for crowning their champions.
In horse racing, the system can sometimes align itself along the lines of a beauty contest.
There are occasions when a victory in a certain race, such as one in the Breeders’ Cup series, will make a horse an obvious choice when the Eclipse Award balloting is conducted. But since we’re talking about a vote, there can sometimes be a multitude of factors that come together to create indecision or a variety of opinions about which horse was the best of them all.
For example, some might believe that if Horse A wins Race X, then he’s the champ. But if horse C wins Race X, then maybe Horse B who won Race Y is the champ.
Confusing, yes, but thankfully horses are often good enough to take all of that algebra out of the equation.
Such could very well be the case with the race among colts and geldings for the championship in their 3-year-old division. What seemed a moot point a little more than three months ago when California Chrome was on the verge of becoming the first Triple Crown champion in 36 years, has become open to debate with three possibilities for the crown.
Looking them over, the longshot of the bunch is the coupled entry of V. E. Day, Wicked Strong, and Tonalist. Each of them is being pointed to the Jockey Club Gold Cup (Sept. 27 at Belmont Park) and a victory there, plus a follow-up win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, could make one of them an intriguing candidate with three Grade 1 wins in major races, equaling California Chrome’s Grade 1 total and surpassing Shared Belief’s figure in 2014 races.
Losses by both Shared Belief and California Chrome in their Breeders’ Cup final preps and Game On Dude-like efforts by those two in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would help greatly in that scenario, but at this point it’s at least a possibility.
The more likely turn of events involves a battle between two California-based rivals, Shared Belief and California Chrome, that’s decided by the Breeders’ Cup Classic in their home state.
Suffice it to say, it is game, set and match if either of the two wins both his final prep and the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Nov. 1. In that case, a sweep could be enough to garner Horse of the Year laurels as well – depending on how Wise Dan fares the rest of the way.
Though Shared Belief was ahead of California Chrome in this week’s National Thoroughbred Racing Association Top 10 poll, he has the most to lose if he goes down to defeat in either of his final two races (the Awesome Again at Santa Anita on Sept. 27 and then the Breeders’ Cup Classic).
SHARED BELIEF IN THE PACIFIC CLASSIC

Shared Belief was second to Wise Dan with six first-place votes and 308 points in the NTRA while California Chrome was third with three first-place votes and 280 points. But much of Shared Belief’s appeal stems from his undefeated record. Hoof woes kept him out of the Triple Crown and last year’s 2-year-old champion has the potential to be a mega-star based on his triumph over older foes in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in just his sixth career start.
But a loss would change everything. At this point, his 2014 slate includes just one Grade 1 win. His other wins this year came in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby and an allowance race at Golden Gate. That can’t even come close to California Chrome’s resume with wins in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 2 San Felipe and the ungraded California Cup Derby – oh, and a dead-heat for fourth in the Belmont Stakes, to boot.
So in the event that both Shared Belief and California Chrome lose in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, California Chrome will most likely get the nod over Shared Belief in the 3-year-old voting.
Even if Shared Belief loses by a nose in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, like last year’s 3-year-old champ Will Take Charge did, it’s difficult to imagine a season as impressive as California Chrome’s being snubbed in favor of a horse with at most two Grade 1 wins. Losses in California Chrome’s next race (Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing) and a clunker in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would make things difficult for him, but in the 43 years since the Eclipse Awards were instituted in 1971, every one of the 12 horses who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness were named the 3-year-old champion.
CALIFORNIA CHROME'S WINS THIS YEAR INCLUDE THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Two years earlier, in 1969, Majestic Prince won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but lost the title to Arts and Letters. In that year, though, Arts and Letters was second in the first two legs of the Triple Crown and beat Majestic Prince by 5 ½  lengths in the Belmont Stakes. While Majestic Prince never raced again after the Belmont, Arts and Letters closed out the year with wins in the Jim Dandy, Travers, Woodward and a 14-length romp in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in the pre-Breeders’ Cup era to wrest the title away from him.
Would wins in the Pacific Classic and either the Awesome Again or Breeders’ Cup Classic make Shared Belief another Arts and Letters? That’s up to the voters to decide.
There is, of course, an X factor if neither Shared Belief nor California Chrome wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the title still comes down to one of them. One of the owners of Shared Belief is Jim Rome, a popular sports talk radio and television host who is one of 15 Breeders’ Cup Celebrity Ambassadors. Meanwhile, California Chrome’s co-owner Steve Coburn did not win many fans with his sour grapes rant after his horse’s loss in the Belmont Stakes.
Could calling Tonalist’s connections “cowards” come back to haunt Coburn? In theory it shouldn’t. Yet more obtuse factors have influenced Eclipse Award voters in the past, and even if only a handful consider it, any blemish at all could be enough to swing a close beauty contest.   
Remember, it’s not the Super Bowl, folks.
PREVIEW OF PENNSYLVANIA DERBY