Hot List Graded Stakes Review: Woodbine Mile

Trade Storm wins the 2014 Woodbine Mile. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The latest edition of the Woodbine Mile lacked a superstar, which it featured a year earlier thanks to the presence of Wise Dan.
This year’s race offered a field of 11 turf runners who staged an exciting contest, but unlike a year ago, the Grade 1 stakes may not produce a Breeders’ Cup Mile winner.
European shipper Trade Storm was an impressive winner. Third behind Wise Dan and Za Approval in the 2013 Woodbine Mile, Trade Storm avenged that defeat as he overcame a slow start and some traffic issues in the stretch to win by a half-length.
Up next could be the Breeders' Cup Mile and that will offer a completely different test for the late-running English-bred. In all likelihood, the turf will be rock-hard at Santa Anita, unlike the “good” turf at Woodbine and the soft European surfaces he’s run over. He’ll also have to negotiate two turns at Santa Anita as opposed to the one turn at Woodbine with an elongated stretch that enhanced his late kick.
Putting all that together, chances are Trade Storm will not be as formidable at Santa Anita as he was at Woodbine. So despite his victory we will not include him on the Hot List as a horse to watch next time out.
Kaigun, who was outkicked by Trade Storm in the stretch, turned in a good effort in defeat and has a body of work that paints him as a consistent runner who can handle a variety of distances and surfaces. For that reason, we’ll put him on the Hot List with a “B” as a horse who could finish in the money next time while offering some value at the betting windows.
Bobby’s Kitten, who was third, should also improve off his effort in Canada. In his first race against older horses, he set the pace and owned a length and a half lead at the eighth pole but weakened in the final furlong of a long stretch run. The experience should only benefit the Chad Brown-trained 3-year-old and it would not be surprising if he displayed more determination on the front end next time at a different course. We’ll also give him a “B” on the Hot List.
Favored Jack Milton had a wide trip, but that was little excuse for a ninth-place finish, nearly 10 lengths behind the victorious Trade Storm.
The Hot List’s late money angle also pointed out one of the starters as Silver Freak dropped from 15-1 to 11-1. The speedy 5-year-old gelding stalked the pace but came up empty in the stretch and faded to 10th. He received a “D” for taking late money and finishing out of the money, which on the surface sounds anything but promising. But considering this was his first appearance stakes, the confidence his connections had in trying a $1 million stakes could pay a dividend next time out if they enter him in a more realistic spot.
Host List horses: Kaigun (B), Bobby’s Kitten (B), Silver Freak (D)
Woodbine Mile Late Wagering Report

PP

Name

Odds 3 Min to Post

Final Odds

1

River Seven

23

28

2

Trade Storm

9-2

9-2

3

Ancil

72

90

4

Silver Freak

15

11

5

Kaigun

9-2

4

6

Dorsett

20

18

7

Lockout

18

17

8

Bobby’s Kitten

6

7

9

Jack Milton

3

7-2

10

His Race to Win

32

41

11

Grand Arch

7-2

7-2

The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race                 B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race                 *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.