Bram’s Take: Coburn, Chrome and the Cotillion
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Co-owner Steve Coburn hugs California Chrome after he won the Preakness Stakes on May 17. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Rarely do I find a reason to put emotion into handicapping a race. For obvious reasons, I want the horse I pick to win, but in this particular case isn't it hard to completely take emotion out of it?
The Pennsylvania Derby is our first look at California Chrome since his near Triple Crown miss and, in typical form, I'd look at either getting behind the certain favorite or look for an angle to take a shot on a horse who might run him down. But the aftermath of the Belmont is hard to forget. When was the last time you actually actively rooted against the connections of a horse?
California Chrome was the epitome of the American Dream. A couple of regular Joes threw some small-time cash into the genetic hopper and out came lightning.
It was something out of “Weird Science”.
CHROME'S CO-OWNER STEVE COBURN AND TRAINER ART SHERMAN
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
I loved this story. The “Dumb Ass Partners” beat the billionaires and sheikhs at their own game. They proved that you don't have to be a king to be the king. And then, Steve Coburn had to trash the history of the sport.
In the ultimate case of sour grapes, Coburn went in front of any hot microphone and told the world the game was rigged and his horse was treated unfairly. He believed his horse was at a “disadvantage” and that any horse who hadn't qualified for the Derby shouldn't be rested and ready to ruin his shot at history.
That’s right, Coburn felt like he got burned by the sport’s rich history. He also used some kind of weird logic likening his horse to handicapped kids in a competition against able-bodied adults.
So lets see if I have this right: Coburn hit the lottery with his rags-to-riches pony. He got the ride of a lifetime (ask trainer Art Sherman, who may have thought his time to have that kind of run at history had passed) and then decided that winning Powerball wasn't enough. He wants the sport to stop being the sport that it is for the sake of his own personal success. Good Lord, where does this guy come off?
CHROMANIA WAS IN FULL FORCE AT BELMONT
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
So what is going to happen if Chrome isn't up to form at Parx Racing this Saturday?
Is he going to claim some vast Pennsylvania conspiracy theory, led by, I don't know, Pennsylvania legend Smarty Jones? So am I rooting against him? Kind of … now to the race:
1. California Chrome: As with any layoff of more then a couple of months, there is always the great unknown. Has the horse been training well? I don't know. Nobody knows. Can the horse be reasonably expected to return to his Triple Crown form? I don't know. Nobody knows. But I’m going to assume he’ll be formidable.
2. Candy Boy: His best race was his last race and yet all that bought him was 12-to-1 morning-line odds. I guess the oddsmakers are expecting a drop off. In general, he doesn't finish, and considering Chrome has the 1 post and does finish, I'm going to assume that Candy Boy will need to be far better then he was at the West Virginia Derby to even have a shot. … Pass.
3. Protonico: So Todd Pletcher picks this guy up and all of the sudden he turns into a flash of lightning. All signs say he's a little out of class here but his Equibase Speed Figure and last race in particular at this very track say otherwise. At 6-to-1, he’s tempting. If for some reason the locals take a liking and start betting him down, I'm not sure I’ll see the value.
4. Bayern: His last race was an absurd dud. He stopped. Why did he stop? Was he injured? Was it just not his day? Considering his last two races prior were crazy fast Grade 1 stakes romps, those who assumed easy money in Saratoga that day got a nasty wake up call. The times on his race wins don't inspire, but his margin of victory does. I can't write him off.
5. Noble Moon: His times stink. His best race was a fourth-place finish in the King’s Bishop Stakes. No way. Let’s move on.
6. Classic Giacnroll: I can't pronounce his name. Is this some kind of inside joke? How can I root for something I can't say. ... I never enjoy slapping my program screaming: “C’mon You.” Now all that said, he’s got tons of stakes experience and is mainly competitive. At 15-to-1, he’s got show pony potential..
7. Tapiture: Rosie Napravnik has jumped on his back for the last two and won them both. She stalked the pace, made her move and crossed the finish line in time. This has the feel of the right choice should Chrome not be Chrome and if Rosie is sitting on the board at 5-to-1, that smells like the direction to take. People will look at the no-show performance in the Kentucky Derby and think they shouldn’t waste their time. There aren’t 19 horses in this field and, truthfully, there are 3-4 that aren’t in Tapiture’s class. … Me like, a lot.
8. C J's Awesome: This is not a stakes horse. Now, his last race at Saratoga was great and all, but come on; there is a huge difference between an $85,000 allowance and a $1-million payday.
Let’s assume Bayern and C J's Awesome run out of the gate and challenge for the lead. All Chrome really needs is one rabbit to burn out most of the competition, and Bayern is his most likely huckleberry for that job. Victor Espinoza proved he knows when to hit the gas on Chrome, so whoever the sucker is out front is going to get run down. This, to me, suggests Bayern would have to sprint a mile and an eighth to win and that is not likely. C J’s Awesome will be done by the final turn. This is a big jump for Protonico, but maybe he’s got it in him. We’ll know at the stretch if he’s got the goods: total wild card. This is where I anticipate Chrome and Tapiture to make their moves. With only eight horses in the field and a couple most likely unable to keep a hot pace, I don't think traffic figures to be an issue. So now it’s a foot race.
If Chrome is Chrome, no one else wins. If Chrome isn't Chrome, Coburn’s 10-gallon hat fills with steam and Tapiture wins by a length, maybe more.
The Bet: I’m doing two trifectas, one with California Chrome and another with Tapiture on top. I’ll put Protonico, Bayern and Classic Giacnroll underneath them.
Show Pony: The horse I like to hit the board and should have odds behind him: Classic Giacnroll.
As for being on record and picking a winner: Fine, I'll take California Chrome and not be overly pleased doing it.
Bonus coverage: The 11th race features 3-year-old fillies in the $1-million Cotillion Stakes. I typically avoid all races of the ladies because they are so beyond erratic (all but Zenyatta), but hey I'm already here, might as well weigh in.
Untapable figures to be the heavy favorite in the Cotillion. She gets clear, she's gone, end of story. Slower pace and I’ll give a shot to Stopchargingmaria. Sweet Reason gives me sweet reasons to believe I might make some cash on this race and, for the right number, I'd probably lean this way. Joint Return goes in all exotics and, if above 10-to-1, might be the show pony here. And I’m not ignoring Jojo Warrior, just don't have a real feel that this is the right side to get there in the end.
So let’s go trifecta: Untapable over all those I named above. If the price for Sweet Reason is 5-to-1 or better, then I’ll go win/place/show on her. Joint Return gets a show bet if she’s 10-to-1 or higher.
UNTAPABLE ON TOP, BUT OTHERS TO CONSIDER ...
Mother Goose Stakes photo by NYRA
$1-million Pennsylvania DerbySaturday, Parx, Race 12, Post Time 5:40 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M-L Odds
1
California Chrome
Victor Espinoza
124
Art Sherman
1-1
2
Candy Boy
Joel Rosario
122
John Sadler
12-1
3
Protonico
Javier Castellano
122
Todd Pletcher
6-1
4
Bayern
Martin Garcia
124
Bob Baffert
7-2
5
Noble Moon
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
122
Leah Gyarmati
15-1
6
Classic Giacnroll
Kendrick Carmouche
117
Lisa Guerrero
15-1
7
Tapiture
Rosie Napravnik
122
Steve Asmussen
5-1
8
C J's Awesome
Edgar Prado
117
Kenny McPeek
12-1
$1-million Cotillion StakesSaturday, Parx, Race 11, Post Time 4:45 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M-L Odds
1
Cassatt
Kerwin Clark
122
Larry Jones
12-1
2
Sweet Reason
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
124
Leah Gyarmati
3-1
3
House Rules
Javier Castellano
119
Jimmy Jerkens
20-1
4
Joint Return
Kendrick Carmouche
119
John Servis
10-1
5
Vero Amore
Frankie Pennington
119
Robert Reid, Jr.
20-1
6
Little Alexis
Joel Rosario
119
Carlo Vaccarezza
20-1
7
Jojo Warrior
Martin Garcia
122
Bob Baffert
6-1
8
Untapable
Rosie Napravnik
124
Steve Asmussen
7-5
9
Stopchargingmaria
John Velazquez
124
Todd Pletcher
9-2
WATCH THE PENNSYLVANIA DERBY AND COTILLION STAKES LIVE
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Saturday, Sept. 20, 4:30-6 p.m. ET
PREVIEW OF PENNSYLVANIA DERBY