Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 20-21
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Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
In the world of point spreads and horse play, the ability to take the wins and losses in stride will breed a clear mind and discipline, which are keys to success.
The best early season NFL angle has simply been “bet against the New York Giants”. They’re bad, and the linemakers don’t take long to adjust. The Arizona Cardinals provided our lone win from three plays last week.
The Buffalo Bills proved their opening week win against the Chicago Bears was no fluke by beating the Miami Dolphins outright at home and the Cleveland Browns momentum off the near miss against the Pittsburgh Steelers carried over into the New Orleans Saints game, and they too scored on familiar turf.
Last week: 1-2 (.333); Season Total: 3-3 (.500)
Pro Football Trifecta
Motivation is huge in all sports. Good teams usually respond when they see a carrot dangling in front of them or their backs are against the wall.
Motivation is our inspiration for this week’s plays.
Sunday, Sept. 21, 1 p.m. ET
New Orleans Saints (-10 ½) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Tough losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns put the Saints, who many considered to be a Super Bowl contender, in an 0-2 hole. You think Sean Payton, Drew Brees and company are motivated? The cure comes this week in the form of a very average Minnesota Vikings team and the distraction of the Adrian Peterson saga. This could be a bloodbath.
SUPER BOWL-WINNING QB BREES WILL BE MOTIVATED
WikiMedia Commons
Sunday, Sept. 21, 1 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts (- 6 ½) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts opening week rally against the Denver Broncos fell short, and last week they literally had the game against the Eagles taken away from them by the zebras. There was obvious pass interference on the red-zone pick and the horse-collar penalty to keep the drive alive the other way was just as pathetic. The Jaguars took a solid halftime lead week one lead against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they’ve been in reverse in the six quarters since. The Colts and their quarterback could use a break, but there is no Luck needed when you have MOTIVATION.
Sunday, Sept. 21, 4:25 p.m. ET
Seattle Seahawks (-5) vs. Denver Broncos
Last year’s Super Bowl was memorably unmemorable, and that was on a neutral field. The Seahawks just don’t lose at home, they’re coming off a wake-up call loss and the Broncos simply don’t match up well with them. The Broncos are 2-0, but neither win resembled their early season romps from last year. The Seahawks are as cocky as they come, they smell blood and you can rest assured Pete Carroll won’t take his foot off the gas late in the game.
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.
The upset watch was issued, and East Carolina did not disappoint. They quickly built a three-touchdown lead and should have coasted to victory had they not gone ultra conservative on Virginia Tech. In the end, it came down to what happened in the beginning … a dominant drive by the Pirates. The only difference was the amount of pressure, and ECU quarterback Shane Carden failed to notice it.
While watching Texas and UCLA, I couldn’t help but to think how the game would have played out if star QB Brett Hundley were to play throughout for the Bruins. Regardless, the game would have still played close, and in reality, Texas should have won. They didn’t … but they covered, and that’s what matters!
And for the one and only loss (should have kept Missouri -10, but that’s neither here nor there), I can’t decide whether I hyped Florida a little too much or Kentucky is actually a pretty good football team. I’m leaning toward the latter. Silver lining you ask? We learned a lot about Florida and Kentucky. Learning new things is always positive however useless the knowledge may turn out!
And being a native of the Land of Lincoln, I hope everyone hammered Washington against the spread. I saw that one from just about a mile away.
On to the next one ...
Last week: 3-1 (.333); Season Total: 4-3 (.571)
College Football Trifecta
#2 Oregon (-25) @ Washington State (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Marcus Mariota is something special. We’ve all seen the highlights, but he’s even better in person. The job he’s doing with the players around him is just as special, especially with the youthful wide receiver corps. They will score and score and score some more in Pullman, Wash. And the fact that Washington State just does not run the ball, and when they do … they, in a sense, don’t. All-American Oregon cornerback Ifo-Ekpre Olomu will be looking to feast, and won’t be disappointed. Oregon wins. Big.
EXPECT A HUGE WEEK FROM MARCUS MARIOTA
WikiMedia Commons
#3 Alabama (-15) vs. Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
It’s time to take what we learned (see above) and apply ourselves.
In my opinion, Florida’s offense was at its best last week when committed to the power run game, in a multitude of formations. That will not work in Tuscaloosa, and this game could get ugly.
Let’s do a little math real quick. If we take away the longest run from the Southern Miss game (24 yards) and the FAU game (31 yards), and we include every rushing attempt (24 of them) in the game against West Virginia, we find something. Sixty-four rushing attempts by opponents, 86 yards given up by the Tide. That’s 1.3 yards a carry. (If we include the outliers, it’s 2.2 yards a carry.)
Alabama gallops.
#18 Missouri (-14) vs. Indiana (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
This game has two words written all over it.
Maty. Mauk.
The sophomore QB for the Tigers cannot wait for this one to get underway. Not only is it a rough matchup for the Hoosiers (and for the Big Ten of course), it’s an even worse situation for the Indiana secondary. The Hoosiers secondary seems to cower when sophomore quarterbacks oppose them. You don’t have to look any further than last week, where a sophomore QB threw for nearly 400 yards against IU and completed 46 passes! And plays for Bowling Green! Yes, James Knapke (BGSU sophomore QB), threw the ball a modest 73 times … but nonetheless!
Missouri wins and covers.
Best of the Rest (1-1): Cal (+9) @ Arizona
I don’t foresee any trust issues here …
P.S. I had to pick an underdog with the points to buck the trend above.
P.P.S. Because … superstition.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Not only did we fail to pick a winner from three runners last week, none of them so much as lit the toteboard, bringing our total back to even.
A boggy turf can be used as an excuse for Kiss Moon in the Pucker Up Stakes, Guys Reward simply didn’t fire in the More Than Ready Mile and O’Prado Ole was simply fourth best in the Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes.
It’s with unwavering confidence that we jump back into the saddle.
Last week: 3-0-0-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $0 returned)
Season Total: 6-2-1-0 ($2 WPS * $36 wagered * $36 returned = $2.00 ROI)
Saturday, Sept. 20
Parx – Bensalem, Pa.
10th Race – $300,000 Gallant Bob Stakes (Grade 3), 4 p.m. ET
#5 Pure Sensation (morning-line odds 4-1)
This 3-year-old gray flash is on edge for the best performance of his career. He’s speedy, but rateable, and is proven at Saturday’s 6-furlong (three-quarters of a mile) distance. He tried two turns on grass for the first time last out and faded to third, but this is a common move for top trainer Christophe Clement, who has monster win and ROI stats on the cutback.
11th Race - $1-million Cotillion Stakes (Grade 1), 4:45 p.m. ET
#8 Untapable (morning-line odds 7-5)
This is a free space. Dominant against her own sex all year long, she was compromised big time when taking on the boys in the Haskell Invitational Stakes. She’s trained smartly since and is well drawn outside. Perhaps the presence of Sweet Reason and Stopchargingmaria will allow us to get 4-5, which would be very fair odds.
UNTAPABLE AFTER WINNING KENTUCKY OAKS
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
12th Race - $1-million Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2), 5:40 p.m. ET
#8 Tapiture (morning-line odds 5-1)
Please hold your fruits and vegetables. As a fan of the game, of course I’d like to see California Chrome win his comeback race, and I still might make him my selection on the broadcast, but the name of the betting game is value and with familiar $$ going down in droves on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, Tapiture’s odds will be inflated. His win over fellow PA Derby rival Candy Boy in the West Virginia Derby was more impressive than it looks. Go back and watch the replay. He’s trained like a rock star since, is well drawn outside and he still has some upside.
TAPITURE'S WEST VIRGINIA DERBY WIN WAS BETTER THAN IT LOOKED
Coady Photography
$1-million Pennsylvania DerbySaturday, Parx, Race 12, Post Time 5:40 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M-L Odds
1
California Chrome
Victor Espinoza
124
Art Sherman
1-1
2
Candy Boy
Joel Rosario
122
John Sadler
12-1
3
Protonico
Javier Castellano
122
Todd Pletcher
6-1
4
Bayern
Martin Garcia
124
Bob Baffert
7-2
5
Noble Moon
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
122
Leah Gyarmati
15-1
6
Classic Giacnroll
Kendrick Carmouche
117
Lisa Guerrero
15-1
7
Tapiture
Rosie Napravnik
122
Steve Asmussen
5-1
8
C J's Awesome
Edgar Prado
117
Kenny McPeek
12-1
$1-million Cotillion StakesSaturday, Parx, Race 11, Post Time 4:45 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M-L Odds
1
Cassatt
Kerwin Clark
122
Larry Jones
12-1
2
Sweet Reason
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
124
Leah Gyarmati
3-1
3
House Rules
Javier Castellano
119
Jimmy Jerkens
20-1
4
Joint Return
Kendrick Carmouche
119
John Servis
10-1
5
Vero Amore
Frankie Pennington
119
Robert Reid, Jr.
20-1
6
Little Alexis
Joel Rosario
119
Carlo Vaccarezza
20-1
7
Jojo Warrior
Martin Garcia
122
Bob Baffert
6-1
8
Untapable
Rosie Napravnik
124
Steve Asmussen
7-5
9
Stopchargingmaria
John Velazquez
124
Todd Pletcher
9-2
WATCH THE PENNSYLVANIA DERBY AND COTILLION STAKES LIVE
ON AMERICASBESTRACING.NET
Saturday, Sept. 20, 4:30-6 p.m. ET
PREVIEW OF PENNSYLVANIA DERBY