Predicteform Pennsylvania Derby Analysis

Tapiture (above, winning the Southwest Stakes in February) perhaps peaked too early to be a top contender for the Kentucky Derby. He is in great form now, however, and poised to test California Chrome on Saturday in the $1-million Pennsylvania Derby. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby with a purse of $1-million will be run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for 3-year-olds and older. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome will make his long-awaited return to the track after his gallant Triple Crown effort.
The Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 20 will be streamed live at America’s Best Racing (www.americasbestracing.net). Beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET, the 90-minute telecast from Parx Racing in Bensalem, Pa., outside Philadelphia, will be a feed of the regional broadcast produced by The Comcast Network.  Get the Pace Figures and Past Performances for the Pennsylvania Derby.
California Chrome (1-1)
Here's what we had to say about California Chrome prior to the Belmont Stakes:
Pace Figures are remarkable, but this is a runner who makes his third start in five weeks. Are you willing to back a runner who will most likely have a slower Final Pace Figure in his effort to win the third leg of the Triple Crown? It's a tall task for any horse, especially one that is not expected to take another step forward. He is just a little more likely than not to win the race, yet probably will not have value at less than even money.
Chrome has taken an interesting path back to the track after being turned out (horse vacation) for two months, trainer Art Sherman has worked him on a perfect seven-day pattern with a couple bullet workouts sprinkled in.
He traveled well back to Philly looking to return to his glory as the media coverage awaits at PARX Racing. He is sitting on 105 days rest or coming off a 105-day layoff, in either case he's had twice as much time between races as any other runner in this field.
There is no question that on his best day Chrome should dominate this crew. He is however, from a Pace Figure perspective, coming off a five-point decline in his Final Figure with his lowest 4-furlong figure lifetime. There is some excuse given the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes distance, but nonetheless, stepped on or not, that race was regression. 

The Play: At what is expected to be well below even money, given the media coverage and fan base, there is little value to play him on top. $12,925,898 was burned on him to win Triple Crown in New York; we'll see how much of that money flocks back.
Candy Boy (10-1)
After his Kentucky Derby disappointment, Candy Boy has run two good races, finishing a distant second to Shared Belief, the Breeders' Cup Classic current future book 2-1 heavy favorite at the Wynn Las Vegas. His most recent West Virginia effort was good, although it did take him almost the full length of the stretch to get by Vicar's in Trouble, who came back to dominate the Louisiana Derby in a Final Pace Figure time of 77, a very good final figure at notoriously slow surface. Jockey Joel Rosario gets the mount, a positive jockey change, especially in a graded stakes race.
From a Pace Figure perspective, he most recently ran a 75/72.3 NPT Form Cycle Pattern (New Pace Top – fastest 4f figure of his life combined with a final figure that is within 4 to 6 points of his lifetime top). His race prior was a 78 Final Figure at Los Alamitos, a decent figure up against Shared Belief.
 
The Play: Fringe Contender – While his final figures don't look strong enough to win, his positive Form Cycle Pattern (NPT) and jockey change are appealing and put value on him as a double-digit odds runner. 
Protonico (8-1)
One of two runners with only five starts lifetime, Protonico missed the Triple Crown trail as a late developing 3-year-old. He showed a real turn of foot in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes, making up four lengths in the last sixteenth of a mile. And, while Joe Bravo gave him a heady ride, leading trainer Todd Pletcher reunites him with Javier Castellano, his regular rider and the top jock in the country.
Turning to his Pace Figures, he has a Form Cycle Pattern in all his starts as a 3-year-old. His effort on July 25 was a REV Form Cycle Pattern (the first time a horse's final figure is greater than his 4f figure). He got beat by V. E. Day, who went on to win the Travers Stakes, after diving to the slowest part of the track that day (the inside). He put up a 76.2/79 in his most recent race (the Smarty Jones), a DTOP Form Cycle Pattern (Double Top – highest 4f and final figure in the same race, an indication of potential regression).
In this case, given he is a lightly raced 3-year-old, the improvement of 3 points from the top final figure and just a point from the top 4 furlong figure could be interpreted as improvement and a positive Form Cycle Pattern.

The Play: Fringe Contender – There is something to be said for his race on this surface, brilliant turn of foot and jockey change, and at 8-1 on the morning line, he is worth a hard look.
Bayern (7-2)
Here's what we had to say about Bayern prior to the Travers:
The 81.8 and 81.2 final figures in his two most recent races are considered “paired-up tops (PUT)”, meaning he ran two lifetime tops back-to-back, which is not necessarily a point from which a horse can move forward. Expected to be the race favorite and the fastest out of the gate, the competition in here is tougher than the Haskell, and with paired-up tops the value needed is not going to be there as in his previous two wins.
Bayern knows only one way to the winner's circle and that is on the lead. Following his not-surprising collapse in the Travers (see above), trainer Bob Baffert brought him back to California, gave him just over two weeks rest and shipped him back to the East Coast for the fifth consecutive time. This transcontinental trip for two workouts has got to take a toll on even Grade 1 winners, which he is.
Looking at his Pace Figures, and as mentioned above, his regression from a pair of 81 final figures to a 69 was not a shocker. He does cut back in distance to his preferred 1 1/8 miles, which will help carry his speed. The question is whether he can return to his form of an 81 (or close) final figure.

The Play: Regressor – A proven all-or-nothing horse, it is a reach to expect an immediate return to his Haskell form, especially as the 7-2 morning-line second choice.
Noble Moon (15-1)
Sent off at 20-1 in his last two starts (both in Grade 1 races), the connections of Noble Moon continue to race him against elite 3-year-olds, when in fact he looks to be more of a Grade 2/Grade 3 competitor.
His Lifetime top Pace Figure came two back on April 5 when he ran a 76.2 final figure while finishing sixth in the Wood Memorial Stakes. His most recent effort of 75.4 was an expected tail off.

The Play: Too Slow – His best lifetime effort probably would not hit the board.
Classic Giacnroll (15-1)
With two lifetime wins in his first two races, Classic Giacnroll looked like he could have graded stakes potential. Since that effort he is winless in eight starts and has tried both Grade 2 and 3 competition with minimal success, putting up two seconds and fourths.
Using the “basic view” to look at his lifetime final Pace Figure average, it is just 68.8, at least 4 to 7 points less than the other competitors. It is interesting to note that he did run a NPT Form Cycle Pattern (New Pace Top – best 4f figure combined with a final figure that is not a clear max), which is typically a positive. However, in this case, notice the 6- and 8-point increases from his previous race Pace Figures, and it looks more like a top.

The Play: Too Slow - Looks like a runner that is both too slow and sitting on a regression.
Tapiture (5-1)
Once considered a Kentucky Derby favorite after winning the Southwest Stakes in February, Tapiture peaked a bit too early in the spring to be competitive in the Derby. He's rounded nicely back into form and has shown he is clearly a very capable Grade 2 and 3 winner with a record of four wins, one second and one third from six starts facing that level of company. He’s stayed the course running all of his races in the southeast part of the country, which means he will be well suited to run at this racetrack.
He showed a strong turn of foot in the West Virginia Derby after being pinned on the rail and rallying three wide in an easy fashion to win. As mentioned previously, he also beat Vicar’s in Trouble.
Turning to his Pace Figures, he is the type of horse that when he is on, he is on. His race two starts back was a NPT Form Cycle Pattern (see above), where he established a solid lifetime top of 78. He followed that effort up with a 74.6/72.2, winning the West Virginia Derby while posting an SOFT Form Cycle Pattern (an indication that a runner won the race within himself and without overexertion). Take note that his one SOFT pattern (on Feb. 17) was followed by a two-point progression, which is an indication that he could move forward again.

The Play: Contender – He is in sharp form, on a positive Form Cycle Pattern and at 5-1 on the morning line and most likely higher by post, there is good value on top. 
C J's Awesome (12-1)
With only $118,131 in purse earnings and two wins (against maidens and non-winners of more than one race), C J's Awesome is anything but. He draws the outside post with journeyman Edgar Prado and has shown he has only one running style – going to the lead.
From a Pace Figure perspective, his last race was a 77 Final Figure, which was a lifetime top, though his 4f figure decrease does show a better ability to manage speed.

The Play: Too Slow – A big jump into graded stakes company against a couple of the top horses in the division, his early speed could ensure an honest pace.
$1-million Pennsylvania DerbySaturday, Parx Racing, Race 12, Post Time 5:40 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Wgt

Trainer

M-L Odds

1

California Chrome

Victor Espinoza

124

Art Sherman

1-1

2

Candy Boy

Joel Rosario

122

John Sadler

12-1

3

Protonico

Javier Castellano

122

Todd Pletcher

6-1

4

Bayern

Martin Garcia

124

Bob Baffert

7-2

5

Noble Moon

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

122

Leah Gyarmati

15-1

6

Classic Giacnroll

Kendrick Carmouche

117

Lisa Guerrero

15-1

7

Tapiture

Rosie Napravnik

122

Steve Asmussen

5-1

8

C J's Awesome

Edgar Prado

117

Kenny McPeek

12-1

WATCH THE PENNSYLVANIA DERBY AND COTILLION STAKES LIVEON AMERICASBESTRACING.NET

Saturday, Sept. 20, 4:30-6 p.m. ET