DerbyJackpot’s Best Bets of the Weekend for Sept. 20-21
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PARX Racing photo by Eclipse Sportswire.
America’s Best Racing and DerbyJackpot team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo or Cory Moelis – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet.
The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity to bet a trifecta or superfecta.
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This Weekend’s Bets
Saturday
Best Bet (Win/Monkey Bet)
Parx Racing, Race 12, 5:40 p.m. E.T - Pennsylvania Derby
#2 Candy Boy: If California Chrome needs a race to get fit again, Candy Boy is the one most primed to take advantage, and at a very generous 10-1 on the morning line. Although I think he will be closer to 5-1 come post time, Candy Boy still will have strong value. He enters this spot off a nice second in the West Virginia Derby where he lost to Tapiture, who also turns up here. Visually, Tapiture had more trouble in that race, but Candy Boy raced wide the whole way, and now at better value he has a good chance to turn to the tables here.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Belmont Park, Race 6, 3:41 p.m. E.T
#4 Love and Marriage: An expensive purchase from the 2012 Keeneland September yearling sale, this horse started slow in her debut and came on strong late - showing some promise. Even more encouraging was the fact she did this rallying into a slow pace. With only one race under her belt, she should take a big step forward, and with Chad Brown, one of the top turf trainers in the country, she should be ready.
#6 Miz Lee: After running strongly in her first two races at Gulfstream Park, Miz Lee shipped to Keeneland, where she went off as the favorite and ran a somewhat disappointing third. However, she made an early move on a good surface - two things that might have factored into her not running her best. She needed a layoff after that one and comes back in this spot. She may not be at peak fitness, but the New York turf circuit is not as strong as the one at Gulfstream in Florida. The fact she ran well in her debut shows she can run well fresh, and if she can run back to those first two she ran at Gulfstream, she should factor here.
#9 Marie Antoinette: Another one coming off of a long layoff, Marie Antoinette enters this one an overlaid 10-1 on the morning line. The main negative for bettors will be the loss of top trainer Todd Pletcher. However, an entirely capable Jimmy Toner takes over and this filly has always shown flashes of talent. She lost a tough debut - getting nailed at the wire - and ran a sneaky good one after that in which she made a nice middle move only to tire late. She puts the blinkers back on here, which she wore when she did her best work, and if there were any red flags about the loss of Pletcher, I don't think jockey Jose Lezcano would be aboard.
Sunday
Best Bet (Win/Monkey Bet)
Belmont Park, Race 9, 5:17 p.m. E.T.
#8 Given Fire: Coming off an impressive romp at 19-1, Given Fire is in peak form and seems to have improved a lot from her 3- and 4-year-old seasons. After only racing once in the past year, she strings two together here for the first time in two years - a sign she could finally be healthy. Jockey Junior Alvarado had another promising mount in here, so that fact he chooses Given Fire is encouraging. She has switched stables since her last race, which is usually a positive sign, and she should be the controlling speed in here. I expect her to take the lead and maintain it until through the finish line.
Longshot Bet (Granny Bet)
Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:55 p.m. E.T.
#4 Sadler's Warrior: Slow to find his stride, Sadler's Warrior simply did not fire in his first two races. He quickly figured it out in his third start when cruising home to a 3-length win. After gaining confidence, his connections threw him on the turf, where he went off at a crazy 53-1 odds against some better company. In there, he showed his affinity for the turf by stalking a fast pace and making a bid to take the lead in the stretch. His connections tried to get him back on the turf but got rained off. He enters this spot at 15-1 on the morning line and should be able to navigate a good trip on a turf course he has proven he likes. Worth a shot.