Handicapping Big Foster Night at Churchill Downs

Five of the six graded stakes in North America June 16 will be run under the lights on a "Downs After Dark" program at Churchill Downs, highlighted by the 38th edition of the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) and the 43rd Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2), which are Breeders' Cup Challenge races for their respective divisions.

Both races will be shown live by NBCSN from 8:30-10 p.m. ET. On-track fans will get to see Triple Crown winner Justify, who is scheduled to appear on the track, as well as in the paddock and winner's circle, early in the evening.

An all-stakes pick five is capped by an absolutely wide-open renewal of the Regret (G3T) for 3-year-old fillies that drew a baker's dozen. Feeling flush after Spring Quality ($38) turbo-charged a $639 pick four (50 cents) getting up in last Saturday's Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes (G1T), let's go over the races.

Matt Winn (CD, race 5, 7:57 ET): Many bettors will try to turn the sequence into a virtual pick four by standing alone with Ax Man (7), yet another super-talented sophomore from Bob Baffert's incredibly deep barn. 

Count me among them.

Ax Man has a late-developing look similar to Baffert's eventual 2017 Eclipse Award winner West Coast's profile around this time last year, when he was coming off a win in the Easy Goer Stakes on the Belmont Day undercard. Ax Man, who has won three of four starts by a combined margin of nearly 25 lengths, drew well clear to take a sloppy Sir Barton on Preakness Day over Title Ready, who was fourth in the Rebel (G2) earlier this year, and Prince Lucky, who came back to post an upset win in the Easy Goer a week ago.

Ax Man breaks from the outside with Big Money Mike Smith, and figures to control the pace against his two main opponents, Funny Duck (3) and Combatant (5).

Ax Man is a singleton. If he crashes and burns, well, there's always the pick four.

Wise Dan (race 6, 8:30 ET): World Approval (4) and Divisidero (1) renew hostilities as the first two morning-line choices.

World Approval looks to bounce back to his 2017 Eclipse-winning form after a puzzlingly underwhelming performance at 1-2 in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1T) that even trainer Mark Casse has struggled to explain, and he must concede three pounds to likely pacesetter Shining Copper (2) and five pounds to everyone else.

A bona-fide horse for the course, Divisidero has won all three of his starts on the local layout, beating World Approval in the 2015 American Turf (2) as well as the 2016 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1T), and coming back to repeat in the latter event a year ago. He comes off a solid runner-up finish in the Monmouth (G2T) in his first start of the season, and first for trainer Kelly Rubley.

The price possibilities—each 10-1 on the line—are Inspector Lynley (3) and Mr. Misunderstood (5). Inspector Lynley closed strongly in a high-end optional claimer at Belmont second time back from a layoff when beaten a nose in a mile heat that went in 1:32 flat, just two ticks off a long-standing course record held by Elusive Quality. Mr. Misunderstood was off last, widest turning for home, and missed second by less than a length in the Maker's 46 Mile (G1T) most recently.

A - 1, 4

B - 3, 5

Fleur de Lis (race 7, 9:05 ET): Farrell (9) is a lukewarm early favorite at 3-1, but while the four-time grade 2 winner can surpass $1 million in earnings with a victory, she has her work cut out from the far outside post at a distance (1 1/8 miles) slightly longer than her preferred trip.

Song of Spring (5) wore down Blue Prize (3) by a half-length in the Maker's Mark Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3) over a sloppy strip at Pimlico Race Course last out, but the latter is capable of turning the tables.

Blue Prize did all the dirty work up front that day, and might benefit from an easier pace scenario in this match-up. Moreover, she should relish the return to Churchill Downs, where she notched a field-best 117 Equibase Speed Figure with a big win (at the distance) in the Falls City Handicap (G2) last autumn.

At what should be square prices, we'll also use Apologynotaccepted (8), who got loose on the lead in this race last year, and held for second behind champion mare Forever Unbridled; and Mopotism (2), a California invader who was out of her element on turf in the Gamely (G1T) three weeks ago.

A - 3

B - 2, 5, 8

C - 9

Stephen Foster (race 8, 9:39 ET): It's tempting to try and turn this pick five into a pick three by also singling Backyard Heaven (6), who stretched his winning streak to three with an impressive score over the track in the Alysheba (G2) on Kentucky Oaks Day.

But that was the first stakes appearance of any kind for the lightly raced son of Tizway, and he will be stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time. None of that may matter, but he is still going up against several stakes-seasoned rivals in Honorable Duty (1), Irish War Cry (8) and Pavel (9).

Honorable Duty was along for second in last year's Stephen Foster behind eventual Horse of the Year Gun Runner , and there is no one in this field even close to that one's stature.

The enigmatic Irish War Cry ran his "A" race to romp in the Pimlico Special (G3) last out, but not only has the Curlin  colt had difficulty pairing up good races, he is coming back only 29 days later. That is a potential problem, since he had 48 days leading to the Pimlico Special, and all of his better performances have been delivered with five weeks or more between starts.

Pavel has unquestionably kept the toughest company running fourth in each of his past four outings.

A - 6

B - 8, 9

C - 1

Regret (race 9, 10:11 ET): On paper this race is so competitive that Heavenly Love is the 5-1 favorite on the line—and I would be stunned if she actually goes postward as John Q. Public's choice given her dreadful form since winning the Alcibiades (G1) on dirt at age 2.

We'll use her protectively in a race where nine of the fillies could conceivably win without it being termed a huge surprise. However, our trio of key runners will be Secret Message (9), Romantic Moment (11) and Stave (13).

Secret Message was purchased and turned over to Graham Motion after winning two of three starts at Turfway Park over the winter, and she returned from a short layoff to run second in the Hilltop Stakes over an absolute bog the day before the Preakness. She ought to be plenty fit after that.

Romantic Moment and Stave come off preliminary allowance wins for respective top conditioners Shug McGaughey and Larry Jones. They are lightly raced, well bred, improving, and also the only members of the field to have won at the distance.

Beyond Blame (8) and Kabella (10) exit troubled trips when off the board the Edgewood Stakes (G3T) on the Churchill course.

All that being said, here's hoping enough breaks right in the first four legs to afford maximum coverage in this head-scratcher of a race.

A - 9, 11, 13

B - 8, 10

C - 1, 3, 6, 7