Hot List Graded Stakes Review: Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Stakes
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Hot List Graded Stakes Review$1-million Grade 2 Pennsylvania DerbySeptember 20 at Parx
By Bob Ehalt
There’s no doubt Bayern turned in a highly impressive effort in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby.
Just how helpful the race will be when the Breeders’ Cup rolls around is a far different matter.
As much as Bayern was a lopsided winner, the impact of his victory was tempered by having everything go his way. With attention focused on Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome, Bayern was allowed to set a clear and leisurely pace on a day when early speed was a ticket to the winner’s circle. Under those conditions, it came as no real surprise that Bayern was able to romp home after a :47.89 opening half-mile and set a new track record at a mile and an eighth distance.
But what happens if trainer Bob Baffert opts to enter the son of Offlee Wild in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? His previous try at a mile and a quarter – in the Travers - was a dismal failure as he faded to last.
While Bayern figures to be more formidable in his second try at 10 furlongs, and Santa Anita should be kinder to Bayern’s early speed than Saratoga was, there are certainly reasons enough to be skeptical about his chances in the BC Classic. The fractions should be more demanding than they were in the shorter Pennsylvania Derby, and if Moreno also targets the $5 million showdown, Bayern will have stiff competition on the front end from the get-go.
With all that in mind, there’s plenty of trepidation about tabbing Bayern as a horse to watch in a Breeders’ Cup race – unless it’s the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. So, despite such a fast and easy victory in a million dollar race, there’s too much uncertainty about his form at a mile and a quarter to put him on the Hot List.
The speed bias at Parx enhanced the efforts of Tapiture and Candy Boy, who were second and third, respectively, yet Santa Anita is hardly a haven for closers, either. Considering Tapiture beat Candy Boy by a nose in the West Virginia Derby and a head at Parx, the two are difficult to separate. Candy Boy, though, attracted more attention at the mutuel windows as he dropped from 7-1 to 5-1 in the final three minutes, which met the criteria for a spot on the Hot List’s “C” list.
Protonico also tumbled two notches in the final few minutes, dropping from 10-1 to 8-1, but was no factor in the race. Though he was victorious in his previous start at Parx, he never fired against the speed bias and dramatically better company. The late money and unplaced finish earned him a spot on the “D” List and we’re hoping he’ll be more competitive in an easier spot next time.
As for California Chrome, there was little to like. He definitely needed the race after a 15-week layoff, but he should have been closer at the finish than sixth place, some 7 ¼ lengths behind Bayern. He figures to benefit from the race, but whether he can produce the career-best effort he’ll need to win the BC Classic is debatable. Kentucky Derby winners tend to struggle in the fall of their 3-year-old season and California Chrome’s comeback effort did little to inspire confidence that he can regain the brilliance he displayed in the spring.
Considering that he’ll be one of the favorites in the race based on his reputation, he looms an underlay and that lack of wagering value is enough of a reason to exclude California Chrome from the Hot List.
Hot List horses: Candy Boy (C), Protonico (D)
Pennsylvania Derby Late Wagering Report
PP
Horse
Odds 3 Min to Post
Final Odds
1
California Chrome
3-5
4-5
2
Candy Boy
7
5
3
Protonico
10
8
4
Bayern
3
7-2
5
Noble Moon
29
33
6
Classic Giacnroll
58
67
7
Tapiture
6
6
8
C J’s Awesome
25
27
Hot List Graded Stakes Review$1-million Grade 1 Cotillion StakesSeptember 20 at Parx
By Shawn Rychling
After the failed experiment against the boys in the Haskell, the connections of Untapable reversed course and decided to return to races against the fillies, entering her in the Cotillion at Parx last weekend. Going in it appeared we would have a showdown between Untapable and Alabama winner, Stopchargingmaria, but alas, the Repole-Pletcher team decided to scratch and run in this Saturday’s Grade I Beldame at Belmont Park.
So in the end, trainer Steve Asmussen’s decision with Untapable was rewarded as his 3-year-old Tapit filly sat a perfect trip just a few lengths off a brisk pace before making her move just outside the quarter pole. She was forced 3-wide on the far turn and then broke in before passing the pacesetter, Jojo Warrior. She didn’t draw off, but calmly held off a mild late bid from Sweet Reason who had to close from farther back than the winner.
It was a solid victory for Untapable and her fifth straight in races restricted to 3-year-old fillies. However, the perfect trip she got makes it difficult to give this horse a letter and she may have already peaked and be a little vulnerable in the Breeders’ Cup.
Two horses earned letters as a result of the late wagering for the Cotillion:
Sweet Reason got a similar trip as Untapable, but was 2-3 lengths farther back in the field. She moved when the eventual winner did, but was forced even wider on the far turn. She did make up some ground, but came up short, finishing second. Sweet Reason stretched back out to two turns off a nice closing win in the Test at Saratoga and she earned a ‘C’ plunging from 6-1 to 9-2 on the board.
House Rules came in off a romp against allowance horses and took a drop from 17-1 to 13-1 in final 3 minutes of wagering. She rated pretty well for a half mile while running in tandem with Sweet Reason. But when both their jockeys said go at the 3/8th pole, House Rules had no response and faded to last. She earns a ‘D’ for the betting action and has some talent, but needs softer competition.
Hot List horses: Sweet Reason (C), House Rules (D)
Cotillion Late Wagering Report
PP
Horse
Odds 3 Min to Post
Final Odds
1
Cassatt
7
9
2
Sweet Reason
6
9-2
3
House Rules
17
13
4
Joint Return
14
21
5
Vero Amore
70
105
6
Little Alexis
10
13
7
Jojo Warrior
9
9
8
Untapable
1-2
1-2
9
Stopchargingmaria
SCR
SCR
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com