Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 27-28

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Losing can provide motivation.
So can winning, and our tidy 3-0 record last week has me champing at the bit to get back in the starting gate.
The New Orleans Saints still aren’t the team we expect they eventually will be, but it doesn’t matter if you cover by a half-point, as they did for us last week against the Minnesota Vikings, or 20. A win is a win.
The Seattle Seahawks looked primed to cover against the Denver Broncos, but a late TD, and what turned out to be a fortunate two-point conversion, pushed the game to overtime. The revised rules worked in our favor and the defending champs covered by marching the ball right down the field and into the end zone.
Off of a pair of tough losses, the Indianapolis Colts played mad and galloped to a convincing win against the increasingly hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. That one was easy.
When you’re playing the spread, perfection doesn’t always have to be pretty.
Last week: 3-0 (1.000); Season Total: 6-3 (.667)
Pro Football Trifecta
R-E-L-A-X.
That was Aaron Rodgers’ message to Green Bay Packers fans following the team’s disappointing 1-2 start.
Heading into a game, players and coaches always take the high road.
You think they’re really going to tell you that they are panicking and don’t believe they can win or even be competitive?
Of course not, they don’t want to send the wrong message to their team.
That being said, when coaches, or players, with a history of success exude confidence, even during the tough times, I pay attention. 
Sunday, Sept. 28
Green Bay Packers (- 1 ½) @ Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
In case you didn’t know, I’m a Chicago Bears fan, but the key to winning is to have a good opinion and to play with your head, not your heart. After dumping their first game to the Buffalo Bills at home, the Bears won their next two, but they were more fortunate and opportunistic then they were good. The Packers have had trouble getting in sync offensively, but they’ve also faced three top-end defenses. Aaron Rodgers is not Geno Smith, and he has far more weapons at his disposal.
THINGS SHOULD BE LOOKING UP FOR THE PACK

WikiMedia Commons
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET
This one almost seems too easy. The Falcons destroyed the Tampa Bay Bucs on Thursday night. They enter this game well rested and confident, and they play fast on offense. The Vikings gave the Saints a battle last week, but lost their starting quarterback in the process. The Falcons defense is second tier, but they have an opportunity to feast on Teddy Bridgewater in his first career start. The Vikings don’t have a running game to speak of. The Falcons should be able to tee off on the QB on passing downs, and their offense should be good for 3-4 touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 p.m. ET 
The Saints offense is a ticking time bomb, and the Cowboys defense gave up 30+ points to one of the worst offensive teams in the league last week. The Saints are very likely to put up 40 this week, which means the Cowboys would have to put up 37 to cover. Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and the ’Boys are in fine form, but I have a feeling this one will be a Brees for New Orleans.   
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.
While looking at the goings-on the past four weeks of college football, the ‘any given Saturday’ mantra still reigns. At the same time, we know more about these squads. Let’s take Oregon for example. They’ve looked explosive — unbeatable at times — yet we know they are young. We may have thought their first road game (a variable we overlooked) would be a walk through. It wasn’t, but they got the win … they just failed to remotely get close to covering.
That’s the stuff that happens in college football. I mean, they are still kids … still going to school, etc. That’s why it is optimal, and important, to stay confidant and stay the course for the first couple weeks. Get a feel, and then drive them home. The tri won’t satisfy us anymore, it’s time for the super.
Real quick: Last week we lost Oregon and Missouri (still don’t know how), and won Alabama and Cal.
Last week: 2-2 (.333); Season Total: 6-5 (.545)
College Football Superfecta Week Five
#15 Arizona State (+6) @ #11 UCLA (Thursday, 10 p.m. ET, FS1)
Thursday night in the Valley of the Sun. Sun Devil Stadium will be rockin’, and Brett Hundley’s status is still up in the air. ASU the underdog? Give me Sparky and the points.
#6 Texas A&M (-10) vs. Arkansas (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
We’ve had some luck with these afternoon SEC games on CBS. Arkansas will continue its struggles on the road, especially in the SEC, and Kenny Trill knows it. The Aggies could very well be the best team in the SEC. An afternoon pig roast is planned in Texas … give me TAMU and the cover.
#13 South Carolina (-6) vs. Missouri (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Gamecocks’ season has sprung new life with an absolutely pivotal home win a week ago against Georgia, and the Ol’ Ball Coach will have his boys ready to take advantage of this opportunity. South Carolina should easily cover the six points, especially with what happened to the Missouri Tigers last weekend. I’m sure Missouri will be ready for the game, coming off that letdown against Indiana, but I’m not too sure they are South Carolina-ready. Give me the Gamecocks and the cover.
Maryland (+5) @ Indiana (1:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
This one is simple. I’m excited to see Maryland’s first game in the Big Ten Conference, and I think Randy Edsall has brighter days ahead of him in College Park. Couple that with the unpredictability of the first four weeks of college football, and I think Maryland steals this one. Why? Like I said, unpredictability. After a huge win at Missouri that I would have never foreseen, I predict the complete opposite for this one. Indiana will remember who they are: Indiana. I’ll take Maryland and the points.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
On signature Saturday at Parx Racing, we did the right thing trying to beat California Chrome in the $1-million Pennsylvania Derby, but our Tapiture ran second to a free-running Bayern, turning a slight “across-the-board” profit in the process. Untapable had to work for it, but she won the Cotillion Stakes, as expected. Pure Sensation was fourth best in the General George.
The wagers were basically a wash.
Last week: 2-1-1-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $17.30 returned)
Season Total: 9-3-2-0 ($2 WPS * $54 wagered * $53.30 returned = $5.92 ROI)
Saturday, Sept. 27
With Breeders’ Cup just weeks away, it’s Super Saturday at Belmont Park, and that’s where we will focus our attention.
Belmont Park – Elmont, N.Y.
4th Race – $400,000 Kelso Handicap (Grade 2)
#5 Bradester (morning line odds, 3-1)
Itsmyluckyday is a very nice horse and I like rooting for him, but with all due respect, I think he’s a bit of an underlay in the morning line. If he really is bet that hard, prices on the other contenders will be inflated. Bradester suffered a narrow defeat to “Lucky” in the Salvator Mile Stakes on July 6, but that was his first run in nine weeks. His two efforts since have been phenomenal. This is a racehorse who is just now coming into his own and he should absolutely relish the distance and his trip. 
8th Race - $400,000 Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (Grade 1)
#2 Coup de Grace (morning line odds, 8-1 )
The runaway winner of the Amsterdam Stakes fell just short in the King's Bishop Stakes, but neither one of the horses who finished in front of him is entered here. His lone run at Belmont is a lot better than it looks on paper, and in a race that appears to be overloaded with speed, he should have some ripe targets to pounce on late.
COUP DE GRACE WINNING AMSTERDAM

Photo by Chelsea Durand/NYRA
10th Race - $1-million Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (Grade 1)
#8 Tonalist (morning line odds, 4-1)
Since winning the Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes over what appears to be his favorite surface, this guy performed admirably in both the Jim Dandy and Travers, finishing behind fellow Gold Cup rivals Wicked Strong and V. E. Day in the process. He shocked everyone by pressing the pace in the Travers and he held on well despite the honest fractions. He runs without blinkers for the first time since his debut, perhaps a sign of maturity. In a wide open race, the price should be square.