It's Fasig Time

The 2018 North American and European 2-year-old sales are done, Royal Ascot is over, so it's just about Fasig time. The storied Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale, which has launched so many sires' commercial careers, kicks off the North American and European 2018 yearling auction sales season July 10, but first we have an increasingly relevant Horses of Racing Age sale the afternoon of July 9 to get things underway.

Fasig-Tipton introduced the Horses of Racing Age sale in 2013; twice in its five-year history it has grossed more than $8 million, and this year, even before they take supplements, there are a record 152 horses cataloged. When we consider the yearling sale has grossed more than $20 million just once since 2008, and has usually grossed around $15-$16 million, it certainly looks like the market is endorsing the sale—not to mention it's good news for Fasig's bottom line.

Even so, it is the yearling sale that means the most to commercial buyers and sellers. Fasig-Tipton has cataloged 347 yearlings, 50 more (16%) than last year and the same number as were cataloged two years ago. In 2015 the sale saw 205 yearlings sell from 332 cataloged, a clearance rate from the catalog of 61.7%; that year the sale grossed $20,005,000 and averaged $97,585. In 2016 the clearance rate dropped to 52.7%, the gross to $15.7 million, and the average to $86,101. Last year the clearance rate from a smaller catalog ticked back up to 57.9%, the gross rose slightly, to $16.1 million, and the average came back up to $93,645.

If we were expecting a strong market, Fasig-Tipton could be hoping to sell 200 yearlings, gross $20 million, and average $100,000. In light of the 8% decline at the 2-year-old sales this year—the gross for the North American and European sales combined was $239.7 million (down from $258.7 million), and about the same as in 2015 ($238.8 million)—whether we are expecting a strong market is debatable. However, one good thing about projections is they give us a standard against which to measure the actual results, so the real question will be how close or far the July sale is from a $20 million gross and $100,000 average. Before the fact, those look like optimistic targets.

As Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July aspires to be a $100,000 yearling sale, this isn't meant to be the sale for more than a scattering by the top sires like Tapit  (one colt cataloged), War Front  (none), and Uncle Mo  (two colts); this is the "conformation" sale, and what we see from the sire list are especially the young sires throwing the kind that have traditionally sold well here. Who, among the lower five-figure stud fee sires, are getting the good-looking (especially first-crop) yearlings?

There are 13 yearlings cataloged by Darby Dan's Tapiture , whose first foals (including "short yearlings") averaged $52,553, but just two by Ashford Stud's American Pharoah , whose first foals averaged $467,308; he's on deck, beginning with Saratoga. Tapiture, winner of five graded races and second to Goldencents  in the 2014 edition of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), is one of four sires with 10 or more cataloged at the July sale, of which three are first-crop sires.

Besides Tapiture, the other two first-year sires with 10+ cataloged are: Ashford's Competitive Edge  (12 cataloged), a $750,000 2-year-old from Super Saver 's first crop who won the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at 2 and Pat Day Mile Stakes (G3) at 3; and WinStar Farm's Commissioner  (11), a neck second to Tonalist  in the 2014 Belmont Stakes (G1). Commissioner ran his best race (Beyer Speed Figure of 109) in the Skip Away Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park the following February but was injured and retired before he could confirm his improvement. He and Lane's End's Honor Code  (one filly cataloged), who, like American Pharoah, will be appearing a little later, are the last two major sons of A.P. Indy to go to stud. The other sire with double-digit representation in the catalog is Ashford's Shanghai Bobby  (10), who just had his first group winner at Royal Ascot when the filly Shang Shang Shang, from his second crop, beat the boys in the Norfolk Stakes (G2).

A total of 14 stallions have four or more yearlings from their first crops cataloged at Fasig, which is 40% of the 35 sires total with four-plus cataloged; not surprisingly, 32 first-crop yearling sires in all constitute 39% of the yearlings cataloged. WinStar, which incidentally was also the breeder of Competitive Edge, is represented not just by Commissioner, but also by 2014 Florida Derby (G1) and 2015 Donn Handicap (G1) winner Constitution  (by Tapit, eight cataloged); the intriguing Daredevil  (More Than Ready , eight cataloged), who ran off with the 2014 Champagne Stakes (G1) in a Beyer 107, on a sloppy track; and Carpe Diem  (five cataloged), a $1.6 million 2-year-old by Giant's Causeway who was a group 1 winner at 2 and 3 at Keeneland and whose first weanlings/short yearlings sold like hotcakes (averaged $110,475). Also with eight cataloged is Spendthrift's tough (30 starts) grade 1 winning sprinter Palace  (City Zip). Another Spendthrift sire, Wood Memorial (G1) and Jim Dandy (G2) winner Wicked Strong  (Hard Spun ) is one of three first-crop sires with seven cataloged, along with Three Chimneys' 2013 Belmont and 2014 Met Mile (G1) winner Palace Malice , from Curlin 's first crop; and Airdrie's Summer Front , a five-time group 1-placed and group 2-winning son of War Front whose first weanlings/short yearlings averaged ($78,554) nearly eight times his stud fee.

Often the very sires who were last year's 'market darlings' have been completely forgotten about when their first 2-year-olds are running and their second crops are at the sales. So it's encouraging that seven sires with first 2-year-olds have four or more yearlings cataloged, headed by Spendthrift's Goldencents (Into Mischief ), who has four winners now, including the impressive Churchill scorer, Bano Solo; he has eight cataloged, while another popular son of Giant's Causeway standing at WinStar, Fed Biz , has seven cataloged. Three Chimneys' Strong Mandate  and Will Take Charge  have five and four cataloged, respectively; Spendthrift's Shakin It Up  has five cataloged; and Airdrie's Cairo Prince  and Ashford's Verrazano  each has four cataloged.

Among sires with their first 3-year-olds, besides Shanghai Bobby, WinStar export Take Charge Indy and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence , one-two among 2018 North American second-crop sires by progeny earnings, have five each cataloged. Among sires with their first 4-year-olds, Hill 'n' Dale's Maclean's Music  has six cataloged, while WinStar's Bodemeister  and Lane's End's Union Rags  have four each. Among older sires, Claiborne's First Samurai  has seven cataloged, Spendthrift's Into Mischief has six. As Into Mischief currently sits number four on the 2018 North American general leading sire list, those are sure to continue to attract the big buyers.

TOP 2-YEAR-OLD SALES SIRES

Though there is a reasonably healthy 2-year-old auction market in Europe, it still only constitutes about a quarter of the combined North American and European 2-year-old auction market, and besides that a good number of the 2-year-olds in European sales are by American sires anyway. Thus, of the 26 sires that had two or more 2-year-olds sell and averaged over US $165,000, just four stand in Europe. For the record they are: Frankel, No.1 on average (US $644,388) with just two sold; Sea The Stars (four sold, average $310,811); Pivotal (four, $191,270); and France's Wootton Bassett (five, $169,087).

Darley's Medaglia D'Oro  was the top American sires by average at the 2-year-old sales, with nine selling for an average of $526,624. Gainesway's three-time leading sire Tapit had four average $496,250, and the all-conquering Scat Daddy had no fewer than 27 sell from his final crop, grossing over $13 million and averaging $481,852. Claiborne's War Front had three average $347,850, and Paul Reddam's California sire Square Eddie  had three average $275,000. WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile  had 14 2-year-olds average $246,643; Ashford's Uncle Mo had 25 average $242,176 (that was on a $25,000 stud fee); and Spendthrift's Into Mischief has nearly $9 million in 2-year-old sales, as 39 of his juveniles averaged $227,333. 

Among sires with their first 2-year-olds, the surprise winner by average was Real Solution , a dual 10-furlong grade 1-winning son of Kitten's Joy , who had five 2-year-olds sell at the in-training sales and averaged $218,000 because two colts by him sold for $675,000 and $325,000, respectively at Ocala Breeders' Sales March 2-year-olds in Training Sale. He stood the 2015 season at his owner-breeder's Ramsey Farm, then moved to Calumet Farm, but now is listed as standing at Blue Star Racing in Louisiana. Second by average, another surprise, was Adena Springs's Mucho Macho Man , winner of the 2013 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), by a nose over Will Take Charge . Mucho Macho Man had 13 2-year-olds sell, seven of them for over $100,000, including colts for $575,000 at OBS March and $625,000 at Fasig Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training. Then followed Three Chimneys' pair of Will Take Charge (23, averaged $168,659) and Strong Mandate (20, $156,050); Europe's Juddmonte's Kingman (three, $153,379); and Airdrie's Cairo Prince (34, averaged $140,426).