Bram's Take: Shocker at Santa Anita in Awesome Again

Fed Biz (right) wins the 2013 San Fernando Stakes at Santa Anita. He's a formidable foe for Shared Belief in Saturday's Awesome Again. (Photos by Benoit Photo)
It’s rare that in any sport that you draw up the game plan and it works out exactly how you planned it. But at Del Mar about a month ago, Mystery Train, an Argentinean horse with times from another planet came into the Pacific Classic Stakes and was going to do one of two things: A) Run away from the field like Secretariat or B) Run away from the field, get Game On Dude to pretend it’s the 100-meter dash in the Olympics and take down the one horse Shared Belief’s majority owner, Jim Rome, was worried about.
The answer was B and Rome got to the winner’s circle with Shared Belief, who is now 6-for-6, the latest of which solidified his horse among the most prolific 3-year-olds on the racing circuit.
By midstretch, the Dude was done and Mystery Train, who ran out of gas by the second turn, was taking a left turn to Nowheresville. Shared Belief won by nearly 3 lengths, the shortest margin of victory in his short career. So now, he steps down to the Awesome Again Stakes, a race worth a third of the jackpot that he competed for at Del Mar and the field seems not nearly as formidable, and yet I got the feeling the clones will not be pleased.
We’ve got a shocker coming at Santa Anita.
Fed Biz — He’s a Leap of Faith horse. Does he want to go to the front? Sometimes. Does he close? Not so much. It appears that sometimes this horse has it, and sometimes he just doesn't. But his speed ratings put him among the elite of this class, and while his last race would almost seem like a disappointment, remember Goldencents broke a track record in that race. You can’t account for that and the Biz would have to hope he isn’t so unlucky that Shared Belief would pull off something like that at his expense again. He’s an intriguing erratic horse. ... I'll do an ADHD check later to see how I’m feeling about his chances, which are good, until they are not, until they are good again.
Sky Kingdom — In a fast pace, he typically gets blown out. Considering the lack of depth here, I can’t imagine the contenders are going to try to keep the pace down and let someone like this stick around.
Bird E House — Is this horse seriously running in this? Twenty-five thousand dollar optional claiming races to step up to a Grade 1 stakes run? Unless some railbird whispers in my ear what we don’t know, there is no way I'd put my money on that.
Shared Belief — The truth is it is going to be hard to top what he did last time, and last time I checked, no one wins every race they ever run in. As explained earlier, the game plan was let the Argentinean horse do the early work for him and the Argentinean horse was his huckleberry. Who takes out the other few contenders who exist here? The form doesn’t make that appear clear. Obviously, he’s top class and arguing against 6-for-6 is patently dumb, but I’ve got a feeling this race won’t play out the way the connections want and this time he won't be swooping in and dominating the field.
SHARED BELIEF WINS THE LOS ALAMITOS DERBY

Footbridge — This horse’s connections obviously want him to be in this class, but it does not appear that he is. Last race out, he made a run, and ran out of time and dropped back. I expect the same. He’ll be mid-pack early, then passed late. Maybe he hits the board, but I doubt it.
Majestic Harbor — So he was the disappointment of the Pacific Classic. He had a 7 month layoff from May 2013 until January of this year. The reward didn’t come until the 3rd race back (not a surprise considering he jumped right back into stakes territory) and then suddenly he was formidable. His Gold Cup at Santa Anita win included quick times and a dominating performance by taking the lead on the final turn. And then, he was a no show at Del Mar. Yet another perfect Rome moment for Shared Belief. So he’s an unknown, but what is clear is that at his best (and that wasn’t that long ago) he can win this.
MAJESTIC HARBOR WINS 2014 GOLD CUP AT SANTA ANITA

Video courtesy of Breeders' Cup World Championshps
Mystery Train — No longer a mystery. Is this horse going to try to do what he did last time, charge out to the front while running as fast as possible only to find out there is a mile left to run? If so, he'll be at the back of the pack again. If he does, who does he compromise? Probably not Majestic Harbor - he doesn’t front run. Maybe Fed Biz?
Imperative — Back in the spring, this horse could have been the second choice on the board. Now, after 3 straight basically non-competitive races, you better have some faith or inside information that he will indeed return to his previous form. I don’t like guessing. Even in his last win in the Charles Town Classic, the times were average and he was a huge dog. If he wins, it’ll just be one of those “well, I'm not surprised, but I couldn’t have actually seen it coming.”
The bet: This feels like a 3-horse race: Fed Biz, Shared Belief and Majestic Harbor. Now if Mystery Train roars out again, Fed Biz is the most likely runner to be there with him getting eaten by a hot pace. Harbor seems to do better in the longer-distance races, which makes me lean against him and Fed Biz is more likely to steal something shorter, which leaves Shared Belief, who doesn't lose. While I hate backing the heavy favorite, I'm having a hard time going against him but just in case … Two trifectas: One with Shared Belief on top and another with Fed Biz, both over Footbridge, Majestic Harbor, Mystery Train and Imperative.
Show Pony (the horse who has appealing odds and will hit the board): I don't feel strongly about this option in this race, but I might go light on Footbridge, especially if he is 15-1 or better.
$300,000 Awesome Again Stakes
Race 8, Saturday, Santa Anita, Post Time 7:00 PM E.T.
1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3-year-olds and upward 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

Fed Biz (KY)

Martin Garcia

119

Bob Baffert

2

Sky Kingdom (KY)

Victor Espinoza

119

Bob Baffert

3

Bird E House (KY)

Joseph Talamo

116

John Sadler

4

Shared Belief (KY)

Mike Smith

121

Jerry Hollendorfer

5

Footbridge (KY)

Rafael Bejarano

119

Eoin Harty

6

Majestic Harbor (KY)

Tyler Baze

124

Sean McCarthy

7

Mystery Train (ARG)

Brice Blanc

124

Darrell Vienna

8

Imperative (KY)

Kent Desormeaux

119

George Papaprodromou