DerbyJackpot’s Best Bets of the Weekend for Sept. 27-28
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Belmont Park photo by Eclipse Sportswire.
America’s Best Racing and DerbyJackpot team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo or Cory Moelis – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet.
The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity to bet a trifecta or superfecta.
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This Weekend’s Bets
Saturday
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Belmont, Race 10, Jockey Club Gold Cup, 5:50 p.m. E.T. post time
#8 Tonalist
As previously mentioned in my How to Bet the Jockey Club Gold Cup on a $20 budget blog, I’m looking to beat Moreno in this race — he is the main speed here, but his outside post position could potentially hamper him and thus this year’s Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist is the horse I'm looking at to win. His most recent race — third in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga — was impressive, and coming back to Belmont where he’s 2-for-2 with jockey Joel Rosario aboard (who is winning an ungodly 30% of his Belmont mounts) should help him earn that automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup Classic in this race.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Belmont Park, Race 8 , Vosburgh Stakes, 4:41 p.m. ET
#2 Coup de Grace and #6 Happy My Way
These eight entries are not only racing for this race’s significant purse, but it’s a “Win and You’re In” race in which the winner earns a paid berth into the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I’m hoping to get some good value in one of the most competitive stakes races this Super Saturday.
Coup de Grace, the lone 3-year-old, is racing against older horses and figures to be quite a promising betting proposition here. Why? Couple of reasons: he’s cutting back to his best distance of 6 furlongs — at which he’s undefeated — his bullet workouts show he’s primed for a big effort and the way he’s made “the grades” (Grade 1, Grade 2 and Grade 3) this year gives him a serious shot.
The other horse who could punch his Breeders Cup Sprint ticket and win his first Grade 1 victory is Happy My Way. A picture of consistency, he hasn’t done anything wrong this year with three wins and two seconds in his five 2014 starts. There should be betting value on him since Palace, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, bested him in his last race and is in this race as well.
Sunday
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Belmont Park, Race 6, 3:25 pm ET
#9 Futurazo
Futurazo has hit the board in 3 of 5 starts at Belmont and 13 of 20 races at the distance. This is the perfect spot for him. With jockey Jose Lezcano aboard, this could be a winning race for this 8-year-old gelding.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Santa Anita Park, Race 7, John Henry Turf Championship Stakes, 7 p.m. ET
#1 Big John B and #3 Si Sage (Fr)
Trying to extend a career-best, 4-race winning streak, Big John B already has earned a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. With Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard, it’s tough not see him, once again, in the winner’s circle.
Si Sage (Fr) is an interesting horse. While he hasn’t won much, two of his best races were at Santa Anita, where he’s returning this weekend. He encountered some trouble in his last race at Del Mar, but I think he may now be on the upswing.