The longest shot on the morning line for the July 7 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1T) won a graded stakes three months ago and was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths at the wire in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T).
Lest the connections of Fatale Bere feel slighted at seeing her 20-1 early standing in the field of 10, they can take comfort in the fact she is joined in the double-digit odds camp by her most recent conqueror (Paved), a promising French-bred invader (Chipolata), and a filly who began her season with a trio of stakes wins and hasn't been worse than second in 2018 (Thewayiam).
Credit the lineup for Saturday's test for sophomore fillies for making life hard for those trying to handicap a definitive scenario for the 1 1/4-mile test at Belmont Park this weekend. Because no matter who ends up prevailing in the $1 million distaff turf race, there will likely be something to point to in their back class to suggest a victorious effort was on the horizon.
Depth and quality have been hallmarks of the female turf ranks in recent years, and if the Belmont Oaks field is an indication, that's not about change this season. An impressive group that includes seven graded stakes winners will vie for an upper hand in the division when the 40th running of the Belmont Oaks Invitational helps anchor a Stars & Stripes Day card that will feature five graded stakes.
As is the case with most top-level turf contests, there is strong representation from the powerhouse barn of two-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown. Significant Form, winner of the Miss Grillo Stakes (G3T) over the inner turf Oct. 1, looms as the 7-2 favorite on the morning line from the inside post and will have stablemate Mighty Scarlett serving as a bookend out of post 10.
From a talent standpoint, Significant Form has the ability to make herself the latest top-level performer to emerge from Brown's care. Putting together back to back wins, however, has eluded the daughter of Creative Cause to this point.
After besting Fatale Bere by a head to finish fourth behind stablemate Rushing Fall in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Significant Form opened her 2018 campaign with a nearly gate-to-wire, 6 1/4 length triumph in the Memories Of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack April 22.
Sent off as the overwhelming favorite next time out in the Wonder Again Stakes (G3T) June 7, Significant Form chased La Signare through a tepid half-mile in :50.95 but couldn't catch the pacesetter in the lane and finished second, beaten a length in the 1 1/8-mile test.
"It was a bit disappointing for Significant Form as the favorite. She had every chance to win turning for home, and it just wasn't her day," Brown said. "I'm confident given the way she's training that she can rebound off that effort."
Mighty Scarlett was third in the Wonder Again, beaten a neck by Significant Form in just her third career start and first stakes effort.
"For it being her first try in a stakes race, I thought Mighty Scarlett ran really well," Brown said. "I think more distance should help her."
The Wonder Again marked just the second race for La Signare since coming over to North America from her native France, but the daughter of Siyouni had already been flattered by the prior company she had kept. The Brian Lynch-trained filly rallied from well off the pace to finish second to Toinette in an allowance race at Keeneland April 11, with the latter coming back to defeat previously unbeaten Rushing Fall in the Edgewood Stakes presented by Forcht Bank (G3T) at Churchill Downs May 4.
"If there's no pace, I don't think we'll try and get too creative," Lynch said of the strategy for La Signare in the Belmont Oaks. "We'll let her do her thing again. I don't know if they'll let her get away with pedestrian fractions like she got away with in the first half (in the Wonder Again). But if there's a bit more pace, I wouldn't be surprised if she can sit off of them a little bit anyway."
The Graham Motion-trained Thewayiam has thrived since arriving in the U.S. last year, posting four wins and back-to-back second-place finishes in seven starts. The French-bred Thewayyouare filly won at her only start at more than a mile with a 1 3/4-length score in the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3T) March 3 at Gulfstream Park, and that experience, along with starting her career with three races in her native country, has made Motion optimistic she can handle the increased distance.
"I think for the mile and a quarter, (experience) is very helpful," Motion said. "I think seasoning helps going those longer distances, so I certainly feel good about that. She's a filly who gives you confidence, because it always seems like she runs her race. Her form has been pretty good. I think she'll lay a little closer going a mile and a quarter. She's going to put herself in the race."
Paved has never finished off the board, going 3-0-3 in six starts, and won her first graded stakes in her previous start when she captured the Honeymoon Stakes (G2T) by 3 1/2 lengths June 9 at Santa Anita Park. The daughter of Quality Road also owns a win against males in the El Camino Real Derby over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields in February.
Champion trainer Aidan O'Brien always commands respect when he ships one across the ocean, and he will be represented by Athena in the Belmont Oaks. The Irish-bred daughter of Camelot was third last time out in the Juddmonte Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) July 1 at the Curragh.
"She finished third in that group 1 at the Curragh over the weekend. It's good form," said T.J. Comerford, head traveling lad for O'Brien. "Any time you finish third in a group 1 and come here, it's good. She's got a good chance. It is a bit soon, but she's come out of it. She shows no signs of it."
Belmont Park, Saturday, July 07, 2018, Race 8Entries: Belmont Oaks Invitational S. (G1T)
PP
Horse
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M/L
1
1Significant Form (KY)
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
121
Chad C. Brown
7/2
2
2Chipolata (FR)
Manuel Franco
121
Christophe Clement
15/1
3
3Paved (KY)
Gary L. Stevens
121
Michael W. McCarthy
12/1
4
4Capla Temptress (IRE)
Javier Castellano
121
Marco Botti
6/1
5
5Toinette (KY)
Flavien Prat
121
Neil D. Drysdale
5/1
6
6Athena (IRE)
Ryan L. Moore
121
Aidan P. O'Brien
9/2
7
7La Signare (FR)
Joel Rosario
121
Brian A. Lynch
4/1
8
8Thewayiam (FR)
John R. Velazquez
121
H. Graham Motion
10/1
9
9Fatale Bere (FR)
Kent J. Desormeaux
121
Leonard Powell
20/1
10
10Mighty Scarlett (KY)
Jose L. Ortiz
121
Chad C. Brown
8/1