Bram’s Take: Show of Strength in Jockey Club Gold Cup
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Wicked Strong, above winning the Jim Dandy Stakes on July 26 at Saratoga Race Course, is one of a handful of horses with a great chance to win the $1-million Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Now this is a horse race. By my estimation, I have five different horses who you could easily install as the favorite in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes race at Belmont Park on Saturday.
So that being said, I'm copping out now. There is no way I am going to feel strongly about anyone, except Wicked Strong but that’s only for alliteration purposes. So lets pull out the dartboard, remove the longshots, tip back a Saturday special and fire away. Here’s to getting lucky …
1. Micromanage — With Todd Pletcher training, I'm never quick to dismiss. But he's not one of the 5 horses who I feel can win this race. So, I'll leave it at: good horse, but unlikely. Apparently, if this race was one of those British strolls around the yard, I'd feel differently.
2. Last Gunfighter — So his last three efforts have been awful. But any horse that has won more than $1.2-million in 19 races has my attention. Sign me up, especially at 20-1 or better. This one also doesn't qualify for one of the Fab Five, but obviously he has the goods unless he no longer has the goods. He’ll be in the exotics.
3. Wicked Strong — If he didn’t get the far outside post at the Kentucky Derby, we could be talking about this horse as the Triple Crown hopeful. Such was the luck of the draw. But his average showing at the Belmont Stakes suggested history would have been a near miss again either way. OK, times at the Travers and getting caught at the finish line doesn’t suggest he’s the choice here, but obviously he’s formidable and should be a factor.
4. Zivo — The most curious choice of all. So he blows out Moreno (a certain contender) on this track back in July. That was part of a run of six straight wins but the only race with this kind of quality around him. So either the connections didn’t believe the horse was of that quality or they went for some easy cash. The class background scares me here because he looks like the choice, but all those allowance races, and low tier ones to boot, has scared me off. If he runs his race, I assume he’s threatening to win and a 6-1 or better payoff stinks of a great call.
5. Prayer for Relief — Easily the most experienced of the group with 33 races, most in stakes capacity, but he hasn’t won in 2014 in eight tries and has been better than third only once. Now his two best races of the last bunch have been with Johnny V (Hall of Famer John Velazquez) on his back, so there is no way you disregard here, but it appears this horse will have to improve to have a serious shot. Hitting the board is no stretch at all though.
6. Long River — This guy was crushing it back in the winter and it appears he has hit his ceiling and regressed the rest of the season. I don’t bet on a complete hunch, which would be the case here.
7. Speak Logistics — This horse is not of this class and would need an unheard of run to win. No thanks.
8. Tonalist — So he goes and wins the Belmont Stakes as a pretty good longshot. He’s only run twice since but neither has been all that impressive. He tried to press the pace in the Travers and, while he held his ground, he didn’t have the push he needed to win. Best guess here is the race of his life happened at this track and won’t be repeated, but then again, the race prior was his best performance and he won that going away, albeit as the favorite for the Peter Pan Stakes. His key will be not to be up front, but that’s not his nature.
2014 BELMONT STAKES
9. Stephanoatsee — He hasn’t won in the last two years and has only three wins in 18 total tries, but his last run included a massive stretch move in a Grade 1 race. Yes, he ended up in fifth, but that was when he was in the back of the pack at the top of the stretch. The race prior: similar big move, which tells me he is game. Jose Ortiz will be aboard for the first time, which is not ideal, but I'm not discounting him and at 20-1 or better he could hit the board and light up the payoff.
10. V. E. Day — This is by far the biggest unknown here. He was a big longshot in the Travers Stakes and came from 14 lengths off the pace to win. It was by far his best speed figure and, considering his background of one minor stakes effort, this was impossible to see coming. He’ll be bet down to a number I don’t feel comfortable taking so I’m more inclined to believe he comes back to Earth.
11. Moreno — He should win. He’s got oodles of experience against a number of contenders in this race. Since Junior Alvarado has gotten the ride, he has a win and two seconds from three races, including a win in the Whitney Stakes. His times are consistently of the type that win these races. All the others seem to have some kind of question around them; he does not. Now that said, Zivo ran him down on this track in July, so there’s no guarantee here, but at 7-2 or better, the price is right.
MORENO WINNING WHITNEY STAKES
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
12. Big Cazanova — This is not a stakes horse unless he’s in Peru, and we are a long, long long way from Peru. He’s going to charge out to the front from the far outside, which may lure Moreno with him and play right into V. E. Day’s or Wicked Strong’s hands. What he definitely will do is force is the outside horses to make a big decision early in terms of getting into position for the long stretch run. No way he wins, but he’s taking someone out by hitting the gas early.
The bet: Wicked Strong figures to get the position he wants, right behind the pace because the horses around him don’t usually show early speed so they won’t force his pace early. The outside is where the speed will be firing from. How Moreno handles this is imperative to the finish. V. E. Day is going to have to get into the middle of the track, preferably near Tonalist. Now if all this plays out (and there is no way I've predicted the exact start of 12 freaking horses, but I can dream) then Moreno’s ability to stay out of an early battle will determine whether he weathers the late storm. This should be some kind of stretch run, so let’s spin the wheel and see where the arrow lands … Wicked Strong figures to be exactly where he needs to be to get there at the end.
Trifecta: 3 over 2,4,5,8,9,10,11
Show Pony (the show with odds that hits the board): At 15-1, it’s hard not to see Prayer for Relief as the best value play here. If Stephanoatsee sees his line go over 25-1, then I’ll put a small bet on him to show, too.
$1-million Jockey Club Gold CupBelmont Park, Saturday, Race 10, Post time 5:50 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
1
Micromanage (KY)
Luis Saez
126
Todd Pletcher
2
Last Gunfighter (KY)
Joe Bravo
126
Chad Brown
3
Wicked Strong (KY)
Rajiv Maragh
122
Jimmy Jerkens
4
Zivo (NY)
Jose Lezcano
126
Chad Brown
5
Prayer for Relief (KY)
John Velazquez
126
Dale Romans
6
Long River (KY)
Cornelio Velasquez
126
Kiaran McLaughlin
7
Speak Logistics (FL)
Paco Lopez
126
Gary Contessa
8
Tonalist (KY)
Joel Rosario
122
Christophe Clement
9
Stephanoatsee (KY)
Jose Ortiz
126
Nick Zito
10
V. E. Day (KY)
Javier Castellano
122
Jimmy Jerkens
11
Moreno (KY)
Junior Alvarado
126
Eric Guillot
12
Big Cazanova (ARG)
Irad Ortiz Jr.
126
Peter Miller