Litfin At Large: Ample Quality Offered on Belmont Card

There are some stakes-studded programs around the country July 7, including Arlington Million Preview Day in Chicago and a four-stakes card at Delaware Park. However, center stage belongs to Belmont Park, where the Stars and Stripes Racing Festival features five graded stakes: The $1.2 million Belmont Derby Invitational (G1T), the $1 million Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T), the $700,000 Suburban Stakes (G2), the $350,000 Belmont Sprint Championship (G2), and the $300,000 Dwyer Stakes (G3).

The Belmont Sprint is a Breeders' Cup Challenge race offering a fees-paid berth in the TwinSpires Sprint (G1), and is one of three races to be televised live by NBC from 4:30-6:00 p.m. ET, along with the Dwyer and Belmont Oaks.

A late pick five encompasses all the races, beginning with the Dwyer. A race later, the Belmont Sprint kicks off a late pick four with a $500,000 guaranteed pool, followed by the Oaks, Suburban and Belmont Derby.

A brutal heat wave that has gripped the New York area was expected to abate, with sunny skies and temperatures in the high 70s, thanks in large part to a round of thunderstorms predicted to soak Island with as much as two inches of rain July 6.

Four also-rans from the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) are looking to rebound:

• In the Belmont Derby, My Boy Jack, fifth as the somewhat surprising second choice in Louisville, returns to the grass for the first time since running seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T).

• In the Dwyer, the enigmatic Mendelssohn, who finished last in the Run For The Roses after getting mugged early, is the 8-5 choice on the morning line, no doubt based on his scintillating score in the UAE Derby Sponsored By Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) before that debacle in the muck and mire at Churchill Downs. Mendelssohn, a $3 million half-brother to champion Beholder and leading sire Into Mischief , gets a rematch with Noble Indy, who won the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) before finishing 17th in the Kentucky Derby and last of 10 in the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1), and Firenze Fire, the Derby's 11th-place finisher, and the winner of the Champagne Stakes (G1) over Big Sandy last fall.

Let's go through the races in order.

Dwyer (race 6, 4:36 ET): It's fair to wonder which Mendelssohn (6) will show up—the one that captured the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the UAE Derby, or the one that finished far back in two of his first three starts, and ran up the white flag on the first Saturday in May. The one thing we do know is that he has rebounded from dreadful efforts twice previously, so the return to fast footing and a clean getaway may trigger a turnaround, particularly if he can control the pace the way he did in Dubai.

Firenze Fire (7) has also shown some resiliency, having bounced back from a 20-length drubbing in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to win the Jerome Stakes, and he was good enough to beat 2-year-old champ Good Magic in the Champagne.

After a troubled run to the first turn in the Belmont that drew the ire of owner Mike Repole, Noble Indy (4) gets a switch back to John Velazquez, who was last aboard the colt for a come-again win in the Louisiana Derby, and puts blinkers back on.

If Noble Indy is handled more aggressively early and goes after Mendelssohn, that could set things up nicely for Rugbyman (3), a diamond in the rough who adds blinkers after showing some greenness in two starts over the track—a blowout maiden win, followed by a close second in the Easy Goer, in which he ran with his head cocked toward the Belmont Stakes Day crowd through much of the stretch.

A - 6

B - 3, 4

C - 7

Belmont Sprint Championship (race 7, 5:11): Limousine Liberal (1) and Whitmore (2) are multiple graded stakes winners who have respectively banked $1.4 million and $1.6 million, and are justifiably the first two choices on the morning line.

But Limousine Liberal, who was second in the 2015 King's Bishop Stakes (G1) at 3, has never won outside of Kentucky, and Whitmore has notched nine of his 10 wins at six furlongs, which seemingly leaves the door open for their two main opponents—Shaft of Light (4) and Favorable Outcome (6).

Shaft of Light was very game through a long pace duel in the Salvator Mile Stakes (G3) last out, only to be run down near the wire by 22-time winner Page McKenney, and has subsequently turned in a trio of bullet workouts. If he can avoid becoming the filling of an early-pace sandwich between Eye Luv Lulu (3) and Lewisfield (5), he is dangerous.

As with Mendelssohn, it is tough to trust the on-again off-again Favorable Outcome, but his best races stack up well, and may get a terrific setup breaking from the outside in a short field of six.

A - 6

B - 1, 2, 4

Belmont Oaks (race 8, 5:46 ET): Some kind of a case can be made for any of the 10 fillies in the field, but the one thing fairly certain is that they'll all be chasing La Signare (7), who grabbed the early lead in the recent Wonder Again Stakes (G3T) and held off 4-5 favorite Significant Form (1).

While it's true that La Signare was able to establish a slow pace that day, the fact that she rated kindly before sprinting home the last three furlongs in :34.30 seconds suggests she can handle the stretch-out from nine to 10 furlongs. Recall that her trainer, Brian Lynch, coaxed 10 furlongs from Oscar Performance to win last year's Belmont Derby.

Significant Form and Mighty Scarlett (10), second and third in the Wonder Again for Chad Brown, are obvious threats.

We're also high on Toinette (5), who edged La Signare in an allowance race at Keeneland before coming back to hand Rushing Fall her first defeat in the Edgewood Stakes Presented by Forcht Bank (G3T) 23 days later; and Capla Temptress (4), who was a troubled seventh behind Rushing Fall in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T) last fall, and returned in May to run a close fourth in the French One Thousand Guineas (G1). In her only previous trip to North America last September, Capla Temptress took the Natalma Stakes (G1T) at Woodbine over Dixie Moon and Wonder Gadot, who have each won three stakes since then, the latter taking last week's $1 million Queen's Plate against males.

A - 5, 7

B - 1, 4, 10

Suburban (race 9, 6:18 ET): A strong renewal of this 10-furlong race includes Hoppertunity (8) and Diversify (10), the last two winners of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1); Tapwrit (4), last year's Belmont Stakes winner; and Dr. Dorr (5), a late-blooming gelding who accompanied his stablemate Hoppertunity to New York for this race.

Dr. Dorr is a late-bloomer who has improved leaps and bounds since being stretched out from sprints by Bob Baffert, who sent out four winners on Belmont Stakes Day in 2017, and three more on Belmont Day this year, capped by Justify's Triple Crown. He may be long gone up front.

One potential bomber to consider is Name Changer (1), who was good enough to beat $750K earner Discreet Lover (6) in the fall of his 3-year-old season, and now makes his third start back from a layoff of 11 months after two optional claiming wins at Parx Racing and Delaware Park.

Like everyone else, I love watching Tapwrit play with his Jolly Ball on Twitter. He should move up from his recent comeback effort in a high-end optional claimer that featured a very fast pace.

A - 5

B - 8, 10

C - 1, 4

Belmont Derby (race 10, 6:50 ET): My Boy Jack (9) figures to benefit from a two-month respite and the return to turf, which suits his late-running style much better than dirt, but this is an exceedingly tough spot to do it.

My main thought here is that the American-based horses are a bit suspect. Analyze It (3) looked like the second coming of Hindoo winning his first three starts by better than 15 lengths, but his distance limitations were seemingly exposed in the 1 1/8-mile Pennine Ridge Stakes (G3T) June 2, when he took over from Catholic Boy (7) in the stretch but could not put that rival away at odds of 1-5.

That same day, Hawkish (8) was visually impressive winning the Penn Mile Stakes (G2T), but his time of 1:35 was two ticks slower than the Penn Oaks for fillies two races earlier.

All of which is a roundabout way of saying that the European invader Hunting Horn (4) is probably the right one here for Aidan O'Brien. The son of Camelot has shown class, stamina, and versatility in two wins at 10 furlongs—a maiden win on heavy ground last fall over Latrobe, the subsequent winner of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (G1); and a win in the Hampton Court Stakes (G3) on good-to-firm footing at Royal Ascot June 21.

A - 4

B - 3, 9

C - 7