Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Fitting Running Style to Surface

The top three Breeders' Cup Classic finishers in 2013 were within inches of each other at the finish. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
As we approach this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup (Friday, Oct. 31 – Saturday, Nov. 1), one of the key discussions that will begin to emerge is what style of runner is best suited to Santa Anita Park’s surfaces and distances.
Keep in mind that on any “regular” days of racing at any given track more than 80% of the past-performance lines have a multi-sample history at the venue. But when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup, there is another dimension all together created by the best in the game, on the surface and at the distance, that are coming from other racetracks all over the North America and from around the world.
Obviously, this is a factor that is crucial to Breeders’ Cup racing analysis. Every racetrack has its own intricacies. From the size of the tracks to the degrees on the turns, to the constitution of the surface, to the length of the stretch, etc., different tracks play to different styles. All of these factors and more are what makes for what might be called “scenario handicapping.” In other words, what do the running styles of the horses tell us with regard to the history of how each track plays to that running style and, moving forward from there, how can we expect each horse to be placed throughout the race in order to maximize their strengths?
Although that last paragraph sounds a bit overanalytical let me assure you it is crucial to separating those that fit the racetrack from those that will have to overcome certain liabilities. Keep in mind, I’m not talking about a bias.
A bias is when the surface disallows for any period of time a closer to succeed on a speed favoring surface or vice-versa. In racing at this level, Breeders’ Cup horses are capable of overcoming what would be standard bias problems to lesser horses. So with that in mind, I’m strictly talking about what style of runner has most often succeeded at Santa Anita in the past.
To put this in perspective, let’s take a look at the running of the Breeders’ Cup Classic over the course of the last four years. In 2012 and 2013, the Breeders’ Cup was located right here at Santa Anita, where it will be run this year. In 2010 and 2011, the Breeders’ Cup was run at Churchill Downs.
Keep in mind that the current traditional dirt surface at Santa Anita replaced the synthetic surface for the fall meet in 2010, so it has been in place the last two years, while Churchill Downs has always been a traditional dirt surface.
That being said let’s look at the first three finishers in each of the Breeders’ Cup Classics and “how each race unfolded.”
What I will show you is the result of one of the many processes that I go through in order to get a formulation of how the race should be run, what running style best suits that formulation based on the sample history of the past running of the race and how that sample matches up to the running styles of the 2014 participants.
SHARED BELIEF IS THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC FAVORITE THIS YEAR

For purposes of this demonstration I am showing you the winner, runner-up, and third-place finisher in each of the last four Breeders’ Cup Classics. What I will list is the place each horse in question was running a half-mile into the race, three-quarters of a mile into the race, a mile into the race and in the stretch of the 1 ¼-mile race. I also included how many lengths behind the pacesetter each horse was at the various points of call. Following the data, we’ll take a look at what should be an apparent summary.
2010 – Churchill Downs BLAME: 7TH-7 — 7th-9 ½ — 5th- 1 ½ — L ZENYATTA: 12th-16 — 12th-14 ½ — 7th-11 — 2nd-3 FLY DOWN: 11th-13 — 11th-12 — 10th-5 ½ — 8th-4 ½
2011 – Churchill Downs DROSSELMEYER: 9th-10 ½ — 8th-9 — 10th-6 ½ — 7th-3 ½ GAME ON DUDE: L — L — L — L RULER ON ICE: 10th-12 — 10th-10 — 9th-6 ½ — 9th-4 ½
2012 – SANTA ANITA FORT LARNED:  L — L — L — L MUCHO MACHO MAN:  2nd- ½ — 2nd-2 ½ — 2nd-1 ½ — 2nd-1/2 FLAT OUT: 9th-7 —9th-8 — 5th-9 — 3rd-7 ½
2013 – SANTA ANITA MUCHO MACHO MAN:  2ND-5 — 4TH-1 ¼ — L — L WILL TAKE CHARGE:  9th-3 ¾ — 6th-2 ½ — 6th-2 ½ — 4th-2 ½ DECLARATION OF WAR: 4th-1 ½ — 5th-1 ½ — 4th 1 ½ — 2nd-1
As you look at those samples above you can readily see that there is a huge difference between the running styles that produced winners at Churchill Downs and at Santa Anita. At Churchill Downs in 2010 and 2011, with the exception of the then-immortal Game On Dude in 2011, the winners and exacta/trifecta combos were accomplished by deep closers.
Then, when they switched to Santa Anita in 2012 and last year, the scenarios were completely different. Fort Larned led from start to finish in 2012 and last year Mucho Macho Man, who chased Fort Larned all the way around the track in 2012, used the same tactical speed to stay close again and by the quarter-pole he had assumed the lead. Right behind Mucho Macho Man last year were tactical speed runners Will Take Charge, who got better and closer to the pace as he matured from the second half of his 3-year old season on; as well as European shipper Declaration Of War. Both horses stalked and were close to the pace from the start.
Given those samples being discussed, it now behooves me to tell you that there are significantly different samples of what it takes to be best equipped to handle the particular Breeders’ Cup race at Santa Anita. Obviously, the turf races are as different as night from day compared with the dirt races. In fact, as I will show you in our next edition of these Breeders’ Cup previews, the Mile turf race has a very particular set of running-style standards that have been eerily consistent regardless of which track has hosted the Breeders’ Cup. For instance, did you know that in the history of the Breeders’ Cup (since 1984) the Mile has only been won twice in front-running fashion and that on only three occasions has the winner been farther back than 6 lengths passing the quarter-pole?
It is also worth noting that the 1 ¼-mile Classic might be run on the same surface as the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies races, but it should come as no surprise that the established running style of the older horses should be much more revelatory than the lightly raced juveniles, many of whom have not yet run more than once at the distance, if at all. Yet, even the juveniles have a pattern based on how they’ve run at shorter distances in preparation.
I will post at least four more Breeders’ Cup previews prior to the running of the races on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1, and in one of those editions will extrapolate the scenarios discussed above by publishing the average placement at each call and how many lengths back at those calls were the winners of each of the Breeders’ Cup races. None of these standards should be considered as singularly governing handicapping factors, because there are dozens for each Breeders Cup race, each of which I will have mastered before releasing and wagering on my plays. But they are overview standards, nonetheless, and go a long way toward beginning the process of separating the serious contenders from those that are merely hopefuls.