Hot List Graded Stake Reviews: Super Saturday
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by Bob Ehalt
The Awesome Again Stakes was supposed to be little more than a $300,000 afternoon workout for Shared Belief.
As it turned out, the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 1 stakes was the toughest test of the undefeated 3-year-old gelding’s brief career and perhaps the ideal race to prepare him for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
After winning the Grade 1 Pacific Classic by 2 ¾ lengths in just his sixth start – and first in a stakes against older horses – Shared Belief was such an overwhelming choice in the Awesome Again that he was a 1-9 favorite over his six rivals with three minutes left before post time.
Those odds also amounted to a skyscraper-like target on his back that attracted the attention of jockey Victor Espinoza, who just so happens to be the regular rider of California Chrome, Shared Belief’s main rival for the 3-year-old championship.
In the early stages of the race, Espinoza, who was riding 36-1 longshot Sky Kingdom, was second while running inside of Shared Belief. As they reached the first turn, Espinoza went about four paths wide with the longshot, taking Shared Belief with him and costing the favorite an acre of ground loss (and landing Espinoza a seven-day suspension for his ride).
Sky Kingdom began his fade to last on the backstretch, but Shared Belief remained wide, racing five wide into the final turn. At the quarter pole, Shared Belief was fourth and set sail after the determined leader, Fed Biz. He drew alongside Fed Biz at the top of the stretch but was unable to move past him until the last few strides of the Awesome Again.
The final margin of victory was a neck, the first time Shared Belief had a lead of less than two lengths at the finish line.
Next comes the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where Shared Belief will face the most formidable test of his career against the likes of California Chrome, Tonalist and Bayern, among others. Some might be troubled by the way Shared Belief was unable to draw off in the stretch after collaring Fed Biz, but considering how much extra ground Shared Belief had to cover because of the wide trip, he probably was several lengths better than his rival.
Shared Belief, who did not make his 2014 debut until May 26 due to a foot abscess, does not have the seasoning of his rivals with Triple Crown experience, but the Awesome Again Stakes should help him play catch-up and have him ready for a peak effort in the Classic. He’ll be the favorite in the Nov. 1 clash at Santa Anita, and deserves an “A” on the Hot List for his impressive and gutsy effort in the Awesome Again.
Fed Biz was a determined second as he tenaciously fought off Shared Belief until the final strides. He finished sixth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but the Awesome Again and a 5 ¼-length score two races earlier in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar paint him as a tougher customer this year, so he’ll get a “B” on the Hot List in hopes that he’ll produce another stellar effort next time.
There was a wave of late wagering action, but no horse received either a “C” or “D” on the Hot List because the odds were skewed by Shared Belief’s miniscule price of 1-9. Since five of the seven runners’ odds dropped while Shared Belief “jumped” to 1-5, it would defeat the purpose of the late wagering criteria to add all of them to the Hot List.
Hot List horses: Shared Belief (A), Fed Biz (B).
Awesome Again Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1. Fed Biz
12
6
2. Sky Kingdom
42
36
3. Bird E House
Scratched
4. Shared Belief
1-9
1-5
5. Footbridge
44
34
6. Majestic Harbor
14
10
7. Mystery Train
29
29
8. Imperative
16
10
The $300,000, Grade 1 FrontRunner
Sept. 27, Santa Anita
American Pharoah image by Eclipse Sportswire
by Bob Ehalt
As the Breeders’ Cup returns to Santa Anita for a third straight year, the East v. West rivalry in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile stands at 1-1. Shanghai Bobby shipped in from New York to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the California-based New Year’s Day took last year’s race.
In this year’s rubber match, the West certainly looks best after watching American Pharoah take the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita.
The Zayat Stables 2-year-old looked great in a front-running triumph as he drew off to a 3 1/4-length triumph.
The son of Pioneerof the Nile quickly sprinted to the lead from post five in a field of eighth and set a pressured pace while under a tight hold by jockey Victor Espinoza. The odds-on favorite fended off the early challenges of Skyway and 9-1 third betting choice Lord Nelson. Then, at the quarter pole, he was joined from the outside by Calculator, but only for a while as he pulled away in the final furlong for a decisive victory.
After making such a smooth transition to dirt following races on the synthetic Polytrack surface at Del Mar in his first two starts, American Pharoah should be the one to beat in the Juvenile and gets an “A” on the Hot List for his superb effort in the FrontRunner.
Texas Red rallied for third after an adventurous trip. Seventh in the field of eight after the opening half-mile, he was fanned five paths wide late on the final turn and then drifted to the inside in the stretch while gaining ground. The FrontRunner was also his first race on dirt, and the way he galloped out bodes well for his chances of sneaking into the triple in the Juvenile back at Santa Anita. For that reason, the Afleet Alex colt merits a spot on the “B” list.
There was little movement on the toteboard as American Pharoah led the way, dropping a notch from 3-5 to 1-2, which failed to meet the Hot List criteria for late money at the betting windows.
Hot List horses: American Pharoah (A), Texas Red (B)
FrontRunner Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1. Texas Red
9
12
2. Lord Nelson
6
9
3. Sky Preacher
19
27
4. Daddy D T
10
10
5. Red Button
Scratched
6. Reflected Star
Scratched
7. American Pharoah
3-5
1-2
8. Conquest Panthera
7
8
9. Skyway
14
15
10. Calculator
14
12
The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup
Sept. 27, Belmont Park
Tonalist image by Eclipse Sportswire
by Shawn Rychling
The term ‘horse for course’ is often heard in handicapping circles, and it would appear that last Saturday’s Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park was a case of exactly that angle – and a late equipment change.
Tonalist came in after just missing in two starts at Saratoga in races that he had legitimate excuses. In the Jim Dandy, he essentially was prepping for the Travers, and in the Travers itself he was a little keyed up early and asked to chase a lightning-fast pace, leaving him empty in the final furlong.
But on Saturday, he returned to Belmont where he was 2-for-2 in his career with wins in the Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes, thwarting California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid in the latter.
Trainer Christophe Clement also made a smart decision to remove blinkers in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and it paid off as Tonalist relaxed and rated beautifully at the very back of the pack. He was asked for more at the half-mile pole and began a winning rally getting into contention at the top of the stretch, just behind the front-runners. At that point, he was blocked by the tiring leader and had to slip out into the 3-path and split horses to get the win in a beautiful and professional effort.
For that impressive closing effort into a moderate pace where he made up a 10-length deficit, Tonalist gets an “A” from the Hot List and we look forward to the Breeders’ Cup, where he may get some early speed to close into, but we’ll have to see if he can win on a track besides Belmont’s “Big Sandy”.
Two other horses earned letters as a result of the betting action:
Long River fell about eight notches on the board – some of which was due to the late scratch of Prayer for Relief – but Long River’s performance was too good to be ignored. He rated behind a decent pace and had to steady near the half-mile pole after being affected by two other horses clipping heels. He went on with it from there, taking over at the quarter-pole and nearly fending off the two closers before settling for third. We’ll give him a “C” for the drop from 60-1 to 52-1, and this was his best outing since the inner track at Aqueduct. Not sure if these Grade 1 races are right for him, but he can compete.
Also receiving a “C” is Moreno after he went from 7-1 to 5-1. He was allowed to drift in a bit though and clipped heels with Wicked Strong causing him to throw rider Rajiv Maragh. For that, Moreno was disqualified and placed last from his fourth-place finishing position. Take away the incident though and this one-trick frontrunner ran an OK race for one in which he didn’t get the early lead but rather sat just off the pace and was ridden pretty hard for the first mile. He didn’t have much rally as he is a “need-the-lead” type and he needs to stay in races at 1 1/8-mile or less, where he is more effective.
Hot List horses: Tonalist (A), Long River (C), Moreno (C)
Jockey Club Gold Cup Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 4 min. to post
Final Odds
1. Micromanage
19
17
2. Last Gunfighter
3
26
3. Wicked Strong
3
3
4. Zivo
7-2
4
5. Prayer for Relief
SCRATCHED
6. Long River
60
52
7. Speak Logistics
75
109
8. Tonalist
5-2
3
9. Stephanoatsee
33
34
10. V. E. Day
9-2
5
11. Moreno
7
5
12. Big Cazanova
29
24
The $400,000 Vosburgh Stakes
Sept. 27, 2014 at Belmont Park
Private Zone image by Eclipse Sportswire
by Shawn Rychling
Saturday’s Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont proved to be a return to top form for the defending champion in the race as he preps for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in five weeks.
Private Zone came off a long layoff on Labor Day and prepped for the Vosburgh on the turf at Parx Racing. Coupled with the fact that he hadn’t won in three starts since winning this race a year ago, Private Zone was sent off at cool odds of 5-1 in the Vosburgh.
He went out and proved the bettors wrong, stalking the pacesetter through a quarter-mile before moving three wide to take the lead. He then was confronted by longshot Dads Caps and the pair dueled gamely for the final three-sixteenths of a mile as Dads Caps put a head in front in final strides before Private Zone came back to win by a neck. For that performance – 6 furlongs in 1:08.95 – Private Zone earns an “A” and could be a value play in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Palace was the favorite after two impressive Grade 1 wins at Saratoga, but we thought the rail post was a disadvantage for the Linda Rice-trainee and that proved true. He was squeezed a bit early and then seemed to lose ground on the turn as being down inside is often the last place a horse wants to be at Belmont. It seemed like jockey Cornelio Velasquez was aware of that as he bulled his way out into the 4-path on the far turn, and Palace ran much better the final three-sixteenths of a mile, gaining some ground on the leaders before settling for third. For that effort Palace gets a “B” and merits a close look in the Breeders’ Cup, because he can rate just off the pace and close at a sprint distance as he showed at Saratoga where he won on days when the track had a speed bias.
No horses earned letters due to late wagering action, but Dads Caps was very game and may be a value play going forward and Salutos Amigos could be a future play off a wide trip here.
Hot List horses: Private Zone (A), Palace (B)
Vosburgh Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds – 4 min. to post
Final Odds
1. Palace
6-5
6-5
2. Coup de Grace
9-2
9-2
3. Zee Bros
22
21
4. Salutos Amigos
5
5
5. Dads Caps
16
15
6. Happy My Way
5
9-2
7. Private Zone
5
5
8. Ribo Bobo
28
30
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com