Betting the Shadwell on a Budget

Silver Max wins the 2013 edition of the Shadwell Turf Mile. (Keeneland photo)
It's generally unwise to doubt a champion. In the case of Wise Dan, many have tried to beat him – both horse and handicapper – and failed. However, going into the $1-million Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland on Saturday, this handicapper – perhaps a not-so-wise Dan – will take another shot at turning a profit by playing against the two-time Horse of the Year.
The fact that Wise Dan will enter the race as a heavily backed favorite, yet again this year, is nothing short of remarkable. Less than five months ago, the horse underwent surgery for the potentially deadly equine disease known as colic. The champ not only survived but bounced back quickly, training up to the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap in late August at Saratoga. While he wasn't dominant, Wise Dan looked every bit the fighter we've known him to be and held off long shot Optimizer to win the race by a mere nose.
From a handicapping perspective, there are two polar opposite deductions that can be made: 1. At 7 years old and coming off of surgery, Wise Dan has perhaps lost a step and is no lock to win a race against the kind of stiff competition he'll face in the Shadwell Turf Mile; or 2. He's bound to improve off of the last effort - as many horses do progress in their second race off a layoff - and, after all, the final time in that last race was actually pretty strong.
In my opinion, the truth probably lies somewhere between those two conflicting perspectives. However, there is enough doubt in my mind about Wise Dan's overall conditioning to make me very leery of playing him at a short price. For that reason, I'll play against him.
In identifying potential upset contenders in the Shadwell Turf Mile, here are the key players and how I see the race unfolding for them:
Silver Max: The main speed horse in here, defeated Wise Dan in this very race last year (Wise Dan's only loss in his last 14 races). However, that race has an asterisk because rain washed it off the turf and Silver Max faced absolutely zero pace pressure up front, allowing him to leisurely walk around the track and accelerate enough to hold off Wise Dan. While Silver Max's form has been off of late, it's very possible that this race could set up in a similar manner for him, especially if Sayaad and Two Notch Road - horses who have shown speed from the gate in prior races - don't attempt to battle for the lead.
OPTIMIZER AFTER A SECOND-PLACE FINISH IN THE MANHATTAN

Optimizer: He's only 5-years-old but with 31 lifetime starts under his belt, Optimizer is a flat out warrior. He was written off at odds of 29-1 in the Bernard Baruch and almost made everyone look silly when he rallied late and almost won. His appeal is that he's a horse who has sat close to the pace many times before and, at his best, is able to kick on late. If his return effort off of a four-month layoff last out is any indication, we might see the best of Optimizer on Saturday.
Kaigun: I've been burned by this horse more times than I can write about and still stay within the word limit for this piece. He's an honest horse who never runs a bad race but the more I see of him, the more I think he's just a really nice guy who doesn't want to offend his competition by winning – he'd prefer to let them have the glory. His talent will probably make it difficult for him to finish out of the money and at 10-1 on the morning line, he's worth a long look in the exotics.
Seek Again: All things being equal – pace, trip and any number of factors that could impact the outcome of the race – this is probably the horse most capable of an upset. His lone race at mile in the U.S. was in the Fourstardave Handicap and he managed to win that race despite overcoming some traffic. A slow and uncontested pace up front is the only thing standing between Seek Again and an in-the-money finish.
Projected Order of Finish
#4 Silver Max
#2 Optimizer
#8 Seek Again
#6 Wise Dan
#5 Kaigun
Suggested Wager on a $20 Budget
$1 trifecta part wheel 2,4/2,4,6,8/2,4,5,6,8 ($18)
$1-million Shadwell Turf Mile
Keeneland, Saturday, Race 9, post time 5:45 p.m. ET
1 mile on turf, 3-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Wgt

Trainer

M/L

1

Sayaad

Julien Leparoux

126

Kiaran McLaughlin

12/1

2

Optimizer

Alan Garcia

126

Jose Fernandez

12/1

3

Grand Arch

David Moran

126

Brian Lynch

12/1

4

Silver Max

Robby Albarado

126

Dale Romans

9/2

5

Kaigun

Patrick Husbands

126

Mark Casse

10/1

6

Wise Dan

John Velazquez

126

Charlie LoPresti

4/5

7

Two Notch Road

Paco Lopez

126

Glenn Thompson

50/1

8

Seek Again

Joel Rosario

126

Bill Mott

7/2