Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Oct. 3-5

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Off of a 3-0 week and with a trio of games I really liked, confidence reigned supreme heading into week four, but unfortunately the only team that came through was the Green Bay Packers … against my Chicago Bears!
The New Orleans Saints continued to disappoint, failing to stop the run, or score points, against the Cowboys.
The Atlanta Falcons have been up and down like a yo-yo.
The season is still young. The disappointing teams are desperate to right the ship, while the overachievers must still prove they are for real.
Pro Football Trifecta
Last week: 1-2 (.333); Season Total: 7-5 (.583)
Sunday, Sept. 28
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Carolina Panthers
The Bears got blown out, at home, by the divisional rival Packers. The defense is bad, the game plan was worse and Aaron Rodgers was at his best. Erase some costly mistakes in judgment and time management, and the offense actually looked really good. Carolina has no running game, its receivers are marginal and Cam Newton has looked very human so far. The defense hasn’t lived up to expectations either. Even at home, I find it hard to believe that they will outscore the Bears.
JAY CUTLER AND THE BEARS SHOULD SCORE POINTS

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Kansas City Chiefs (+ 6½) @ San Francisco 49ers
Would the 49ers be a better team with Alex Smith at the helm? Alex certainly thinks so, and he’ll be out to make a statement in Frisco. Both teams played sensational games last week. The 49ers didn’t give up a single point to the Eagles offense, and the Chiefs dismantled a rapidly disintegrating New England Patriots squad. It’s a short week for the Chiefs, but 6 ½ is a lot to lay to a team that can keep up on both sides of the ball. Both teams can run the ball and play defense, but I trust Alex Smith to make fewer mistakes than Colin Kaepernick.
Cincinnati Bengals  (-1 ½) @ New England Patriots 
Early in the season, lines are still made and teams still bet based on reputation. Anyone with a fair eye who has watched these two teams play in 2014 will tell you the Bengals are pounds the best, BUT they are the Bengals and the Patriots have been an elite team for more than a decade. Can they bounce back off an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs on Monday night? It’s possible but not very likely. They’re coming off a short week, while the Bengals return from a bye, and they’d love nothing more than to feast on their damaged prey and prove that they are a legit Super Bowl contender. 
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.
Ouch. 
Shut out in our ranked games.
Thursday saw Arizona with an 11-point lead in the 2nd quarter, but it was all UCLA from there. Four touchdown plays of more than 80 yards for the Bruins — that’s unheard of! — including a 95 yard interception returned for a touchdown to close the half and an 80-yard bomb to open the second half. That’s something that no team can survive.
TAMU came back to win, but our bet was lost well before that, as the spread was 10 and you cannot win by 10 in overtime. It just took them a little too long to get going to save us.
And Missouri. That’s all I’ll say about that. Any given Saturday in the SEC, right?
Hey, at least we were SPOT ON with our Maryland pick, with the reasoning to boot.
Even machines break down (like the predictionmachine.com picking-machine/scientific theorem, who had Penn State and Fresno State as locks to cover … and they both lost! … shots fired).
We are not a machine, and we will not falter. 
This upcoming week, week 6, I’m just going to try and not overthink things. That’s where I, myself, as well as a good amount of you readers out there, get ourselves in trouble. Not just with picks ATS, but in all facets of life.
Like trivia night, just go with your gut. For some reason, it’s more right than not. Because, science!
On to the next one... 
College Football Superfecta Week Six
Last week: 1-3 (.250); Season Total: 7-9 (.438)
San Diego State (+3) @ Fresno State (Friday, 10 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
San Diego State has looked better and played tougher against the big boys this year, in my opinion. The Aztecs defense is better than advertised, which will make the difference in the game. Look for sophomore running back Donnel Pumphrey to have big numbers for SDSU. Gimme SDSU; they will win.
#4 Oklahoma (-6) @ #25 TCU (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
Oklahoma, pound for pound, could be the most impressive-looking bunch in the land so far this season. With Travis Knight manning the offense with super freshman Samaje Perine leading that vaunted Sooners rushing attack, things are looking good in Norman. But this game is in Ft. Worth, and TCU’s defense has looked as stout as stout can be. However, they’ve seen nothing compared with the likes of OU this season. TCU will keep it close, but OU will win by a touchdown. Boomer Sooner, and the spread.
OKLAHOMA COULD BE THE BEST TEAM IN THE LAND

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#17 Wisconsin (-9) @ Northwestern (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Northwestern saved its season, for the time being, with a great victory in Happy Valley over (highly overrated and incredibly lucky) Penn State. That victory assured that there will, in fact, be some purple in the stands of Ryan Field on Saturday afternoon in suburban Chicago. What I mean is Bucky and all of Badger Nation will pack Northwestern’s home turf and the Red Sea will appear next to Lake Michigan. I’ve been to Ryan Field many a time, and I’ve seen many road teams feel at home. Melvin Gordon will run up and down the field and Wisconsin wins easily. On Wisconsin, and the spread. 
#11 Ole Miss (+7) vs. Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Upset alert. Upset alert. An upset alert has been issued for the following area: Oxford, Miss. Alabama is actually number one in the coaches poll, believe it or not. That’s how much things can change, and will change, following this shocker. Yes, Blake Sims to Amari Cooper has been nice … well, more than nice, Cooper has been unreal, but I’ll take Bo Wallace to LaQuon Treadwell if I’m picking my hook-up in this game on Saturday. This one will be great, but remember the name Cody Prewitt (Ole Miss senior DB) … he will make the difference (or the play) in order for this upset to occur. Gimme the Rebels, and the points … just in case.  
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Last Saturday was super for Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist. He tossed the blinkers aside and won the Jockey Club Gold Cup impressively. I truly hoped to get better than 3-1 odds, but a win is a win, and the result helped salvage a nearly break-even day, following the disappointing performances of Bradester and Coup de Grace.
Saturday, Oct. 3
It’s Fall Stars, opening weekend at Keeneland.
The brand new dirt track will be unveiled, which makes Breeders’ Cup preps run on that surface much more significant, and the grass races are highlighted by Wise Dan’s appearance in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. I do think he’s vulnerable, but betting against Dan has not been a wise move in recent years.
Last week: 3-1-0-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $15.80 returned)
Season Total: 12-4-2-0 ($2 WPS * $72 wagered * $69.10 returned = $5.76 ROI)
Keeneland – Lexington, Ky.
5th Race – $150,000 Woodford Stakes (Grade 3)
#9 No Nay Never (morning-line odds, 3-1)
A 2-year-old maiden winner on the old Keeneland Polytrack surface in April 2013, No Nay Never immediately traveled overseas and enjoyed massive success, winning the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in England and the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny at Deauville in France. He’s only run once as a 3-year-old, finishing second in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes. That race was on dirt and he returns to turf off of a seven-month layoff with an eye on the Breeders’ Cup. He faces a good group here, but his “A” game dwarfs these. I hope he brings it. 
6th Race - $200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Grade 2)
#2 Leigh Court (morning-line odds, 4-1)
The winner of four of her last five and six of 10 overall, Leigh Court hasn’t run on dirt since March 2013. She’s had success at varying distances, but the pedigree tilts toward sprint. She has tactical speed, but also the stamina to finish, which makes her doubly tough in a race like this. She’s trained like a beast in recent weeks and may fly a bit under the radar here.
7th Race - $400,000 First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)
#8 Somali Lemonade (morning-line odds, 9-2)
Since adding blinkers, this veteran mare has won three of six starts against top-quality competition. She’s had some success at 1 1/8 miles, but a mile is probably her best distance. She has the speed to stick close and the stamina to finish what she started. She’s well drawn outside, and should be in line for a clean journey in this one. 
SOMALI LEMONADE WINNING THE DIANA STAKES IN JULY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire